Quote (ferdia @ Oct 21 2022 09:47am)
With Brevity:
Awareness of Covid and Ukraine would not have factored in any decision re: Brexit. What they have done however is to put England in a worse economic position compared to the bad position they would have been in post Brexit. The narrative that Brexit would usher in a new golden age omitted the fact that it would rain for at least 10 years before the sun came out. In terms of a... premature...general eliection, I am not convinced that they will do it. I say this on the basis that they do not put the country first, they put themselves first, as has been repeatedly demonstrated for years now. The current government is effectively the "brexit" party and they have made such a mess of things I would not put anything past them.
here is one of the forcast models from the time :
https://www.cbi.org.uk/media/5375/2020-08-modelling-the-future.pdf The best way to review Brexit is to do a look back in around 4-6 years time and compare English growth to the rest of Europe at that time. Ultimately, it is in everyone's interests if England prospers and its quite sad when you look at the state they are in currently (and will be in for a long time).
I think it goes back to the UK seeking to remain globally important after WW2 and breakdown of the empire proper. They basically made London a haven for funny money. Tax loopholes and no questions asked.
It kept London relevant in the financial markets, still to this day upto 30-40% of global finance is tied to London in one way or another. That doesn't serve the majority of people well as that tax money is never seen and there is literally zero transparency or accountability.
Also I still believe its naive to expect a constant state of growth. Whether its property or shares. How is that perpetually appreciating? For property, nothing more is being added in value. Its speculative. Alas that is the marker for economic vitality.
Objectively, the UK and even England is a very decent place to live. Relatively safe, healthcare, opportunity, education, no natural disasters, no government militias, gulags or re-education camps.
So when you say, "its quite sad when you look at the state they are in" I would argue many people around the world would be intensely jealous of living standards in the UK. Likewise if people witnessed poverty in other regions they would complain far less about the life they have here.
No doubt Brexit has had an affect on the UK economy, as it has EU economies. But after only 2 years, a globabl pandemic, war in mainland Europe and against the backdrop of global inflation. Its still to early to draw any self-congratulatory "we told you so" conclusions.