Quote (Ghot @ 7 Aug 2018 23:42)
That was a Trumpian usage of commas. Nice.
Republicans won Ohio 12 by 36.8 points in 2016. So Democrats closed that margin quite a bit. Every race is certainly different, but Democrats have closed the margins from 2016 by quite a bit in most of these special elections.
When the entire House is up for grabs in November, we'll see how that shakes out. But so far, Republicans are holding steadier than most have predicted.
As far as the Senate, the Democrats have little chance taking that chamber. The 2018 map is awful for them.
It's not all bad news for Democrats, though. Even taking one chamber of Congress would be a huge win for them, and the 2020 Senate map looks great for them. Democrats could turn out in roves in 2020 for a chance to vote Trump out of office, so maybe they capitalize on that potential turnout for the big 2020 presidential year election and just cut their losses on this tough 2018 midterm Senate map.
The fact that Arizona, Indiana, and Tennessee are even considered "toss-up" states for the GOP in the 2018 Senate map by RCP are telling. But I still think the GOP (barely) holds onto a lot of those seats and maintains their majority.
The biggest race of the 2018 senate is in Florida. I could see Scott beating Nelson there, which would be huge for the GOP.
This post was edited by ThatAlex on Aug 7 2018 11:04pm