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Aug 9 2015 01:57pm
Quote (Comus @ Jul 14 2015 08:35pm)
Does anyone not favor peace in the Mid East?


Nearly everyone other than those who live there, it seems.

Israel – Benjamin Netanyahu does not like the framework and claims that the current plan of action threatens Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that any final deal include a "clear and unambiguous Iranian recognition of Israel's right to exist."

Sneaky fucking Persians. Get all sanctions lifted, continue their nuclear research, and get a fat paycheck for doing what they're doing already. And under the current negotiations, they aren't even required to drop their aggressive and hostile attitude towards Israel, or stop arming Hezbollah.

So much for "continued support of our friends and allies in Israel" eh?

Also, from the wiki: "If IAEA inspectors have concerns that Iran is developing nuclear capabilities at any non-declared sites, they may request access "to verify the absence of undeclared nuclear materials and activities or activities inconsistent with" the agreement, informing Iran of the basis for their concerns.[32] The inspectors would only come from countries with which Iran has diplomatic relations.[34] Iran may admit the inspectors to such site or propose alternatives to inspection that might satisfy the IAEA's concerns.[32] If such an agreement cannot be reached, a process running to a maximum of 24 days is triggered.[32] Under this process, Iran and the IAEA have 14 days to resolve disagreements among themselves.[32] If they fail to, the Joint Commission (including all eight parties) would have one week in which to consider the intelligence which initiated the IAEA request. A majority of the Commission (at least five of the eight members) could then inform Iran of the action that it would be required to take within three more days.[35][36] The majority rule provision "means the United States and its European allies—Britain, France, Germany and the EU—could insist on access or any other steps and that Iran, Russia or China could not veto them."[35] If Iran did not comply with the decision within three days, sanctions would be automatically reimposed under the snapback provision (see below)."

So, they can still develop, and they get a 23 day window to move their shit out before letting inspectors in? Sweet! So we'll raid people's homes, no notice whatsoever, for something minor like drugs. Nuclear weapons? 23 day operating window before any major consequences occur. What the fuck?

All I see under this deal is that Iran wins, and the corporations win because they can now do business in Iran again. How the fuck does this help Israel, or guarantee "The world will be a safer place" for anyone else?
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Aug 9 2015 07:24pm
Quote (InsaneBobb @ Aug 9 2015 12:57pm)
Nearly everyone other than those who live there, it seems.

Israel – Benjamin Netanyahu does not like the framework and claims that the current plan of action threatens Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that any final deal include a "clear and unambiguous Iranian recognition of Israel's right to exist."

Sneaky fucking Persians. Get all sanctions lifted, continue their nuclear research, and get a fat paycheck for doing what they're doing already. And under the current negotiations, they aren't even required to drop their aggressive and hostile attitude towards Israel, or stop arming Hezbollah.

So much for "continued support of our friends and allies in Israel" eh?

Also, from the wiki: "If IAEA inspectors have concerns that Iran is developing nuclear capabilities at any non-declared sites, they may request access "to verify the absence of undeclared nuclear materials and activities or activities inconsistent with" the agreement, informing Iran of the basis for their concerns.[32] The inspectors would only come from countries with which Iran has diplomatic relations.[34] Iran may admit the inspectors to such site or propose alternatives to inspection that might satisfy the IAEA's concerns.[32] If such an agreement cannot be reached, a process running to a maximum of 24 days is triggered.[32] Under this process, Iran and the IAEA have 14 days to resolve disagreements among themselves.[32] If they fail to, the Joint Commission (including all eight parties) would have one week in which to consider the intelligence which initiated the IAEA request. A majority of the Commission (at least five of the eight members) could then inform Iran of the action that it would be required to take within three more days.[35][36] The majority rule provision "means the United States and its European allies—Britain, France, Germany and the EU—could insist on access or any other steps and that Iran, Russia or China could not veto them."[35] If Iran did not comply with the decision within three days, sanctions would be automatically reimposed under the snapback provision (see below)."

So, they can still develop, and they get a 23 day window to move their shit out before letting inspectors in? Sweet! So we'll raid people's homes, no notice whatsoever, for something minor like drugs. Nuclear weapons? 23 day operating window before any major consequences occur. What the fuck?

All I see under this deal is that Iran wins, and the corporations win because they can now do business in Iran again. How the fuck does this help Israel, or guarantee "The world will be a safer place" for anyone else?


From what i've heard from experts is weapon grade plutonium/uranium leaves a trace even if moved that lasts much longer than 24 days. In other words if we suspect they had the nuclear material in building A, and 24 days later we check it and find nothing we can still detect the traces of the nuclear material so it would be really hard to actually hide enrichment unless they had some underground or unknown facilities.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Aug 9 2015 07:25pm
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Aug 9 2015 07:35pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Aug 9 2015 05:24pm)
From what i've heard from experts is weapon grade plutonium/uranium leaves a trace even if moved that lasts much longer than 24 days. In other words if we suspect they had the nuclear material in building A, and 24 days later we check it and find nothing we can still detect the traces of the nuclear material so it would be really hard to actually hide enrichment unless they had some underground or unknown facilities.


No idea, but I know they aren't trustworthy


This post was edited by c0nvict on Aug 9 2015 07:36pm
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Aug 9 2015 08:25pm
Quote (Pollster @ Aug 9 2015 02:53pm)
The only people who have the ability to shift that narrative are the Republicans -- they're the ones who are being correctly characterized as sharing the stated position.

Schumer gave a long, long explanation for why he feels like he can't support the P5+1 agreement. Exactly zero Republicans in Congress have done the same. I think that'll ultimately be the cause of the GOP's failure, and the deal proceeding when Obama's veto is sustained: they haven't even begun to offer a compeling case for disapproval let alone an alternative proposal. And to make matters worse for them, what little clarity they probably could offer is about to be completely eroded by the dumpster fire that will be their town hall meetings they hold during the recess. I look forward to seeing what the Iran negotiation version of "death panels" is.

I'm hoping it involves older, less-educated whites from the "keep your government hands off my Medicare" crowd attempting to tell a nuclear physicist why this isn't the good deal for us that it is.


Of course they have.

The deal gives Iran access to billions, both in unfrozen assets and increased revenue. Iran does not make significant concessions and their main goal (of maintaining functional nuclear technology) has been achieved.

In a decade they'll have the requisite knowledge and industry to make a bomb quickly.

Obama was concerned about his domestic legacy and put through a bad deal. History is left to judge him.
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Aug 9 2015 10:22pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Aug 9 2015 06:24pm)
From what i've heard from experts is weapon grade plutonium/uranium leaves a trace even if moved that lasts much longer than 24 days. In other words if we suspect they had the nuclear material in building A, and 24 days later we check it and find nothing we can still detect the traces of the nuclear material so it would be really hard to actually hide enrichment unless they had some underground or unknown facilities.


This is exactly right, except for the last bit: the traces would still be evident for months after that period, meaning Iran would gain little to nothing even if they had unseen facilities to move that material too. The mechanism to reapply sanctions is strong (though it could be stronger), and that doesn't even get into the repercussions Iran would face if the P5+1 determined that they had gone back on the deal.

Quote (bogie160 @ Aug 9 2015 07:25pm)
The deal gives Iran access to billions, both in unfrozen assets and increased revenue. Iran does not make significant concessions and their main goal (of maintaining functional nuclear technology) has been achieved.


LOL, I'm sorry but there's no way to square this nonsense with the reality of the deal. This would be a good deal for the world powers if it only included the new inspection authority and added transparency. The fact that it contains so many concessions makes this a total blowout for our side. Iran has to give up the bulk of its program. They're giving up 75% of their 20,000 centrifuges. They're only allowed to keep early-model IR-1s. It's giving up 97% of its total enriched uranium. It's giving up the Arak core and shipping all nuclear reserves. Moving forward they're only allowed 3.6% enrichment (a full 86% weapons-grade). These are just some of the big item concessions that they've made, related only to materials.

Look, the current breakout time is probably somewhere between 3 months and a year. If you're taking the hardline position (that any negotiation is pointless) then the difference between the consequences in your mind is that decade in the interim, because Iran is ceding it's capacity to build a bomb now. If this is the final agreement and negotiation on this matter (which it obviously will not be), then Obama essentially bought the West a incapacitated Iran for ~10 years. That in itself is massive progress from where we were two years ago. If Iran breaks the deal then they only do more harm to themselves than they would have done had they never come to the table in the first place because the appetite for "sanctions+" goes way, way up all throughout the world.
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Aug 9 2015 10:29pm
29 nuclear scientists, including 5 nobel laureates, praised the Iran deal yesterday:

http://www.haaretz.com/beta/1.670232

Does anyone want to weigh in on how they know more than 29 nuclear scientists?
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Aug 9 2015 10:58pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Aug 9 2015 09:29pm)
29 nuclear scientists, including 5 nobel laureates, praised the Iran deal yesterday:

http://www.haaretz.com/beta/1.670232

Does anyone want to weigh in on how they know more than 29 nuclear scientists?


Honestly, the only counter-argument that seems to be offered is "Iran is inherently untrustworthy. They'll never really agree to the deal in practice, so we must invade." And if that's the stance of the opposition then fine, but they better own that. Lindsey Graham is doing it and he's polling at 1%. I don't want to see any herping and derping about this being a "bad deal" that only "helps Iran" when it's plainly obvious that it does the exact opposite.

Even if you subscribe to the "Iran is untrustworthy" absolute, you have to concede that untrustworthy-Iran's goal of luring the world powers into an agreement is not to make the bomb this year but many years from now. They'd simply never agree to give up so much material and allow so much access if that wasn't untrustworthy-Iran's endgame. Even if you fundamentally believe in "untrustworthy Iran," this deal is obviously a win on inspection authority, transparency, and material. That's why you were able to get everyone on this side of the table to agree to it in the first place.
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Aug 9 2015 11:09pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Aug 10 2015 12:29am)
29 nuclear scientists, including 5 nobel laureates, praised the Iran deal yesterday:

http://www.haaretz.com/beta/1.670232

Does anyone want to weigh in on how they know more than 29 nuclear scientists?



the Bible loll

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Aug 9 2015 11:18pm
The Obama administration and its side deals

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Aug 9 2015 11:27pm
Quote (Many_Names @ Aug 9 2015 10:18pm)
The Obama administration and its side deals

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95BNlWr1do4


This was already debunked weeks ago. The information he's talked about "uncovering" was publicly available on the day the agreement was announced, before his trip to Vienna -- https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-generals-statement-and-road-map-clarification-past-present-outstanding-issues-regarding-irans-nuclear-program

Once that carton of eggs was deposited on his face he backpedaled to talking about some other "side-deal" that is remaining secret, but predictably he hasn't brought that to light in the weeks since he was exposed as having absolutely no idea what the agreement contains. And this clown is on Intelligence and Armed Services.
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