Now unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, this would be a matter of worldwide security and peace. I'm sure if they knew 100% for a fact they were building nuclear weapons, we (NATO + Israel and other Middle Eastern Allies like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey) would already be there. Whether people like it or not.

So here we are five pages later, and anyone is yet to address this. Let me put it simply.

Soon as we attack Iran, they will announce they have nuclear weapons, whether they actually do or not. What do we do, then?
If we 'call their bluff', we risk global annihilation, destruction of israel, and instigating a nuclear war with china/russia that will think MAD no longer applies to us
If we back up, then they will develop nuclear weapons even if they didn't already have them.


So again, what do? Answer.

You wanna shit yourself over Iran but is fine with North Korea which is believed to have enough plutonium for 7 nuclear bombs .

It's never been cheaper to buy gas
...
with gold.

Since you ignore what I said earlier, lemme try this again, and I'll get more into it, eh?

How does Iran blowing up Israel have anything to do with us? Even if it did, how is a country who just developed nuclear weapons going to be able to do anything to a country halfway around the world with them? Assuming they could find a platform to get them to us without being caught/destroyed in the process, they would not be able to do anything other than completely ensure that we remove their country from the map and turn it into a radioactive wasteland for the next dozen millenia.

You have yet to explain why China or Russia would use nukes on us, when our nuclear response would be a response to a nuke being dropped on us. Kinda the whole reason it was called the Cold War is because no one would actually DO anything because of MAD. Iran cannot do that. They have SAD....Singularly Assured Destruction...Why the fuck would the Russians/Chinese want to get wiped out because they have a buttbuddy who got a raging hardon once he got a hold of the big one and let it get to his head? Thats plain stupid to think they would attack us, with the only reassurance as they die being 'Well, we got them too, see you in Hell my brown friend!'

How does Iran getting nuclear weapons have anything to do with us?
It doesn't. It has everything to do with Israel, israel, and israel. We're talking about invading Iran on behalf of Israel, not in our own interests
So yes, Iran dropping a nuke on Israel is extremely relevant.



Israel is not halfway around the globe from Iran. They have the capabilities and long range missiles to reach Israel, yes, with a nuclear payload.
If we invade Iran to destroy the country, after they've announced they have nukes, well if they weren't bluffing, you can expect a smoking crater where one or two Israeli cities used to be.



Thats kind of the heart of the matter, isn't it?
If we invade a nuclear country, MAD gets thrown out the window.
How do you think Russian and China will start reevaluating the situation with 'murica if we say we're going to totally ignore MAD
Because yes, MAD applies when they have nukes aimed at Israel, not just us



You seem to not be grasping the fundamental problem. Iran is not a rational society or government. It is only half secular, yet half ultra fanatic suicidal imams. And in control of nuclear weapons, they will respond with atomic force if we invade them. And yes, that applies to a conventional invasion. Look at it from Iran's perspective. They know they cannot win a conventional war with the US- maybe mire us in guerrilla action like Iraq did, but they know it would be the fall of their regime, government, and theocracy. And against a secular government, maybe they'd be willing to let it collapse. But thats not how theocrats work. They would believe with absolute certainty that it is the end of times and they are fighting a holy war. And by god, they would launch any and all nukes they had, right at Israel.

Look at the motivations. There is no reason for Iran not to nuke Israel if they are attacked and imminently about to be destroyed. They can no longer serve as a deterrent then.
So we basically get this grid:



If Iran Has Nukes -> It will announce it has nukes when it is invaded -> If we stop invading, we get humiliated and they become untouchable in the middle east, gas prices skyrocket, etc -> If we continue invading, a nuclear holocaust ensues, destroying half the world
If Iran Doesn't Have Nukes -> It will announce it has nukes when invaded anyway, a bluff -> If we stop invading, we get humiliated and they both become untouchable/gaspricesup/they get real nukes-> If we call the bluff and invade, half a century of MAD gets thrown out the window and China and Russia take seriously the idea of first-striking

Sanctions are sometimes worse then war, if they had nuclear weapon they would announce it already.
cause with it, they can start blackmaling the planet just like korea does.

Or maybe they want to pursue the same route your dear country did.
If they say they have nukes, they admit to lying and we can all say "GOTCHA"
But if they keep them unannounced, they can keep playing the victim card while knowing if things spiral out of control, they can simply announce their nukes.
And at the same time, as much as we pretend the sanctions hurt them, in reality the effect on gas prices is helping Iran more than anything else we could do.

ill be honest about it. im sick and tired of all the diplomacy these days. i have to hear one more thing about north korea breaking agreements over nuclear programs and nothing being done about it other than bitching it might cause a lethal facepalm.

Neither China nor Russia will risk widespread nuclear war on behalf of Iran, that you seem to suggest it makes me believe you're outright delusional.

If the Iranians use the bomb, they will die as a nation. If they threaten the bomb, they'll still die. The bluff (if it is one) will be called.

The present Iran doesn't have a future, it's just a question of when.