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Jun 26 2020 05:22pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 26 2020 05:08pm)
Not all presidents face equally large challenges. For example, Clinton definitely caught better, less challenging times than Obama.

Unemployment isnt looking better in other industrialized countries. Your claim that unemployment (in the literal meaning of the word) is so high in the U.S. because of the bad national response is just not true.

And it goes without saying that, if Trump had issued strict, nationwide lockdowns early on, Democrats and the mainstream media would have been far more critical of these exact measures that they instead ended up cherishing. They'd have insinuated that Trump has gone full authoritarian, speculated that he might use it as a pretense to call off the election and establish permanent martial law, yadayada.

Anyway, to get back to my original point: I dont dispute that Trump botched the response to the pandemic in a lot of crucial ways, and that both the country and his reelection prospects took a hit because of these mistakes. My point, however, is that this crisis is so huge that he'd still be in deep deep trouble even if he had nailed the response. At the moment, he's so far underwater that only a single, orange curl of hair is still looking out. But even with a perfect response, the water would still reach up to the tip of his nose.


Most industrialized countries didn't have a great response, at least in the west. Several industrialized countries however are doing fine. Germany is doing good, so is South Korea. The worse your response the more you have to meet the problem with blunt-force by reducing movement and therefore remove the workforce.

I don't buy that everybody would have gone and said Trump was going authoritarian. The left isn't the right, where the right openly admits to stopping the left's policies for no other reason than they are held by the left. This is just projection lol

The president's numbers would undoubtedly go down in any crisis, Trump's problem is he's not done anything to raise his numbers even when times were great, and then he took every single wrong turn when times got tough. Your statement about Obama being able to print his way out of the problem is very very false. The world is littered with fallen empires that tried to print their way out of a recession.

Quote (djman72 @ Jun 26 2020 03:54pm)
MSN and Charlamagne's stream/podcast are drastically different. Joe Biden doesn't get covered the same way as Trump, not my in humble opinion at least. Most major networks not named Fox will provide damage control when Joe pulls a Joe.


Why would he get covered the same way as Trump? Trump goes out of his way to attack the media, doesn't apologize, openly attacks all critics, and is generally uncivil and unapologetic no matter what mistakes he makes. When Biden makes a mistake he gets called out and apologizes. How long did it take for him to apologize over the "you aint black" comments? a day? Do you really think the media should call out Joe who apologizes and walks back when he makes a mistake, and someone who embraces his mistakes and never shows any sign that he's learned from them?

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jun 26 2020 05:22pm
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Jun 26 2020 05:55pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 27 Jun 2020 01:22)
Most industrialized countries didn't have a great response, at least in the west. Several industrialized countries however are doing fine. Germany is doing good, so is South Korea. The worse your response the more you have to meet the problem with blunt-force by reducing movement and therefore remove the workforce.


Unemployment numbers here in Germany aren't looking much better if you include the millions whose wages were temporarily taken over by the government ("Kurzarbeit") and thus kept out of the unemployment statistics. And the economy is also sluggish to get rolling again. Consumer sentiment is still veeeery low. And we, like everyone else, haven't found a way yet to save all the small businesses who cant survive months without revenue, the clubs and event organizers, the yoga instructors and personal coaches, cinemas and book stores etc. On top, some of our economists are already issuing warnings that a wave of bankruptcies among smaller, external suppliers for our large auto companies might be coming this fall.

So yes, Germany overall is in a good position in terms of the public health and the economic side of the crisis (at least compared with other major countries; smaller ones like Austria or the Czech Republic did even better). But we're nonetheless in deep shit, particularly when it comes to the economy. And the case numbers could still surge any day; we got the virus mostly under control for now, but the situation is and will remain very tense and dicey.


Quote
The president's numbers would undoubtedly go down in any crisis, Trump's problem is he's not done anything to raise his numbers even when times were great, and then he took every single wrong turn when times got tough.


Yes, that's a good point I can fully agree with.


Quote
Your statement about Obama being able to print his way out of the problem is very very false. The world is littered with fallen empires that tried to print their way out of a recession.


These empires didnt have the petrodollar with which they can force the rest of the world to participate in the monetization of their debt/deficit. And it should be kept in mind that the history books on fallen empires operate on different timescales. A period of 10-15 years is often times condensed into one chapter and treated as one continuous process of financial erosion. The way the United States and the Eurozone printed their way out of the Great Recession might well be considered another such episode by the history books in, say, 2100. It's still too early to come to a final conclusion/assessment of this period.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 26 2020 06:00pm
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Jun 27 2020 01:14am


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Jun 27 2020 01:25am
Quote (Djunior @ Jun 27 2020 02:14am)


You do know that Trump gets numbers mixed up all the time, right? You know, crowd size, the number of people at his rallies, 15 going down to 0 in a week etc.

February 26th “You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero."

February 27th “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”

February 28th “Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus,” Trump said. “They have no clue, they can't even count their votes in Iowa.”

March 17th “This is a pandemic,” “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” “This is their new hoax”

Multiple times and still ongoing claim "If the economic shutdown continues, deaths by suicide definitely would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about” for COVID-19 deaths.

Multiple times and still ongoing claim “Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere,” and cases are “coming way down.”

"The Obama administration left Trump “bare” and “empty” shelves of medical supplies in the national strategic stockpile." fact check, Trump wiped these resources himself

May 8th The coronavirus is “going to go away without a vaccine … and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

May 10th Referring to criticism of his administration’s response, Trump tweeted: “Compare that to the Obama/Sleepy Joe disaster known as H1N1 Swine Flu. Poor marks ... didn’t have a clue!”
fact check - H1N1 was nowhere in the same universe of an issue

May 11th America has “developed a testing capacity unmatched and unrivaled anywhere in the world, and it’s not even close.” though turns around and *jokingly* says that if we stopped testing, that'd be great because that would make him look better

This post was edited by Giannis on Jun 27 2020 01:37am
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Jun 27 2020 01:57am
Here are the changes in numbers since my last post 2 weeks ago:
(delta) raw..positive delta = moving in Biden's direction

Nationally(+0.5) +9.3 Biden -> This is getting close to Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter status!
Arizona is (+0.8) +4.7 for Biden
Florida is (+0.4) +7.2 for Biden
Georgia is (+0.6) +1.4 for Biden
Iowa is (+1.0) +0.3 for Biden
Michigan is averaging (+0.7) +10.7 for Biden
Nevada is (+0.8) +8.7 for Biden
New Hampshire is (+1.3) +8.5 for Biden
North Carolina is (+0.1) +2.9 for Biden
Ohio is (+0.1) +2.7 for Biden
Pennsylvania is (+3.0) +8.1 for Biden
Texas is (+0.5) +0.3 for Trump
Wisconsin is averaging (+3.1) +9.6 for Biden

This has been the worst 2 weeks for Trump in terms of polling.
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Jun 27 2020 02:44am
Quote (Giannis @ Jun 27 2020 09:25am)
You do know that Trump gets numbers mixed up all the time, right? You know, crowd size, the number of people at his rallies, 15 going down to 0 in a week etc.

February 26th “You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero."

February 27th “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”

February 28th “Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus,” Trump said. “They have no clue, they can't even count their votes in Iowa.”

March 17th “This is a pandemic,” “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” “This is their new hoax”

Multiple times and still ongoing claim "If the economic shutdown continues, deaths by suicide definitely would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about” for COVID-19 deaths.

Multiple times and still ongoing claim “Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere,” and cases are “coming way down.”

"The Obama administration left Trump “bare” and “empty” shelves of medical supplies in the national strategic stockpile." fact check, Trump wiped these resources himself

May 8th The coronavirus is “going to go away without a vaccine … and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

May 10th Referring to criticism of his administration’s response, Trump tweeted: “Compare that to the Obama/Sleepy Joe disaster known as H1N1 Swine Flu. Poor marks ... didn’t have a clue!”
fact check - H1N1 was nowhere in the same universe of an issue

May 11th America has “developed a testing capacity unmatched and unrivaled anywhere in the world, and it’s not even close.” though turns around and *jokingly* says that if we stopped testing, that'd be great because that would make him look better


Biden is the one suffering from alzheimer's, not trump.

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Jun 27 2020 04:42am
Quote (thundercock @ 27 Jun 2020 09:57)
Here are the changes in numbers since my last post 2 weeks ago:
(delta) raw..positive delta = moving in Biden's direction

Nationally(+0.5) +9.3 Biden -> This is getting close to Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter status!
Arizona is (+0.8) +4.7 for Biden
Florida is (+0.4) +7.2 for Biden
Georgia is (+0.6) +1.4 for Biden
Iowa is (+1.0) +0.3 for Biden
Michigan is averaging (+0.7) +10.7 for Biden
Nevada is (+0.8) +8.7 for Biden
New Hampshire is (+1.3) +8.5 for Biden
North Carolina is (+0.1) +2.9 for Biden
Ohio is (+0.1) +2.7 for Biden
Pennsylvania is (+3.0) +8.1 for Biden
Texas is (+0.5) +0.3 for Trump
Wisconsin is averaging (+3.1) +9.6 for Biden

This has been the worst 2 weeks for Trump in terms of polling.


Yeah, if the polls dont start going in the other direction within the next 2 weeks, now that the immediate wave of protests over George Floyd/police violence is fizzling out, then he really needs to engage in a dramatic course correction.
At this rate, Biden can directly move from his basement into the White House without even hitting the campaign trail.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 27 2020 04:43am
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Jun 27 2020 05:41am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 27 2020 06:42am)
Yeah, if the polls dont start going in the other direction within the next 2 weeks, now that the immediate wave of protests over George Floyd/police violence is fizzling out, then he really needs to engage in a dramatic course correction.
At this rate, Biden can directly move from his basement into the White House without even hitting the campaign trail.


Elections matter and polls are mostly garbage, I'm sorry, but their methodology sucks, and a lot of people who support Trump will not say so because of the image that goes with it, because 'its none of their damm business', and the anti-positivism of the population in general.

Biden can't do what hillary did and win. Trump is out and he has vitality. Biden 50/50 will know whats going on when they drop the balloons on him in a empty room to accept the nomination based on the time of day.

Biden's base isn't fired up. I'll probably vote for Jo, who has a mix of left wing and right wing ideas, which beat suits me.

I believe that married gay couples should be able to defend their marijuana gardens (on their property) with guns guns guns....so she is cool with me.

One of my best friends refuses to do the lesser of two evils thing and he said "i just don't want to help someone i don't like". A lot of people won't vote.

This post was edited by Skinned on Jun 27 2020 05:49am
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Jun 27 2020 05:54am
Quote (Skinned @ Jun 27 2020 07:41am)
Elections matter and polls are mostly garbage, I'm sorry, but their methodology sucks, and a lot of people who support Trump will not say so because of the image that goes with it, because 'its none of their damm business', and the anti-positivism of the population in general.

Biden can't do what hillary did and win. Trump is out and he has vitality. Biden 50/50 will know whats going on when they drop the balloons on him in a empty room to accept the nomination based on the time of day.

Biden's base isn't fired up. I'll probably vote for Jo.


Anecdotally, I see this all the time. I'll be having a frank conversation w/ friends and family, and they'll completely shut down in mixed company. That said, Biden is comforting to them, if it were Kamala Harris or Comrade Bernie then Trump would be a shoe-in.
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Jun 27 2020 06:15am
Quote (bogie160 @ 27 Jun 2020 13:54)
Anecdotally, I see this all the time. I'll be having a frank conversation w/ friends and family, and they'll completely shut down in mixed company. That said, Biden is comforting to them, if it were Kamala Harris or Comrade Bernie then Trump would be a shoe-in.


Harris might well get the VP slot though. Which imho would be a big mistake. A crooked cop descendant of slave owners is not the right person for this political moment, even if she has the "right" gender and skin color...
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