Quote (fender @ 16 Jul 2018 22:21)
as someone who will surely claim to understand statistics, you would certainly agree that a massive increase like this usually indicates that the absolute numbers are relatively low, right?
normally this is the case, yes. you normally dont see growth rates of 100% or more over the span of a single year unless the case numbers are low to begin with. the only other explanation for such an explosive growth of certain crimes (and ones that will almost surely be reported, unlike, say, shoplifting!) is that something systemic changed in the country. an economic crisis, a civil war, or a sudden shift in the demographic composition.
guess which one took place in germany between 2015 and 2016.
and just to quote from the article:
there were 7919 reported rapes in germany in 2016, which corresponds to 21.7 rapes per day.
there were 524 cases of reported gang rapes, and 225 cases of reported 'ambush-style' gang rapes, for a combined total of 749 gang rapes (2.05 per day).
I wouldnt consider this incidence of severe sexual violence (we're talking about actual rape, not some booty-grabbing!) to be low or nothing to worry about. And besides all those points, it should also be obvious that you dont need a high base number to arrive a at worrisome level with
yearly growth rates of 50 or 100%.
I'll not compare the german numbers with those from the united states - there are just too many differences in terms of welfare state, culture, demographics, poverty distribution and so on.