The War has been going on for 4 years now (Feb 24th 2022). The war is in Ukraine (Russia is the aggressor, and while Ukraine has bombed Moscow the majority of the conflict is in Ukraine). Ukraine has a population of 35~44Million and Russia has a population of about 140~146million. Neither side is forthcoming on the number of dead. The US is currently signalling its intent for a diplomatic solution in 2026. It is difficult to determine how genuine this is noting the US in 2025 proved to be a bad actor - Allowing Israel to bomb an ally (Qatar) during a negotiation window, bombing Iran unprovoked (after reneging on the Nuclear deal), threatening a military alliance (NATO) ally (Denmark and Greenland), bombing Venezuela unprovoked (the list goes on and on). The US signal re: Diplomacy with Russia is simply not credible when compounded with the knowledge that they OK'd an assassination attempt on Putin in Dec 2025 (which, thankfully, failed. I say thankfully as if they had succeeded we could have seen nukes flying and everyone on the planet dead).
Anyway, multiple european countries, and the west overall, have reopened talks with Russia, in part because the US has suggested a peace deal and in part because Europe no longer trusts the US (no one trusts the US now except maybe Ukraine for some wacky reason). Ukraine wants security guarantees (dont invade us again) while Russia wants security guarantees (dont put Nato in Ukraine). Fundamentally those two demands simply do not mesh. Therefore we are unlikely to see a peace deal in 2026 and the war will go on. By my understanding Russia has anything up to 1 million men in Ukraine, and Ukraine has less men say ~ 600,000. if Ukraine loses, Russia would probably take everything east of the Dniepo river, as Putin himself indicated in his interview with Tucker Carlson. It is not credible that Russia will take ALL of Ukraine, noting 1 million men is not enough to safely hold a hostile country of 35~44 million. The notion that Russia will then invade Poland, and Germany, is simply not credible. Russia would have to conscript 5million active men, and there has been no hint or suggestion of this.
Behind all this, europe is rearming and are on record as saying this rearming will take another 4 years. Germany wants to have the largest army in europe, this is a massive change in policy for them. With this backdrop, there is little credible evidence to support the notion that there will be a peace deal in 2026. I am not saying this is definite. I would say: if there IS a peace deal in 2026, it will be very fragile and likely to be broken within the span of 5 years. Ultimately the western backed coup in 2014 and the weapons buildup in the years prior to Russia's invasion as well as everything that has happened (Nord Stream etc etc) suggests there will be no long term solution any time soon.
I agree on many points of this post, but still disagree with the central premise, namely that the root cause of this conflict is a lack of diplomatic effort and belligerent arms-build by the West. The alternative perspective, which imho is a lot closer to the truth, is that Putin's Russia is simply an imperialist country which reacts to strength and pressure, rather than diplomatic language and appeasement. See the bolded parts: we both agree that the diplomatic efforts by the US administration have failed to provide a breakthrough in the peace negotiations because they lack credibility - but you seem to think this lack of credibility comes from the US not apologizing and appeasing Russia hard enough, whereas I believe the crux is the lack of a credible threat of military action by NATO countries which would materially change Russia's war calculus.
Granted, I don't think it's easy or trivial to create such a credible threat, so I can't offer a clear solution on how to end this conflict either. But disarming even more and becoming even more yielding is definitely not what will cause Russia to stop its war efforts. On the contrary: our weakness has, so far, only emboldened Putin.
Regarding Germany: it seems natural and rational to me that the European country with by far the largest population and economy should also strive to have the largest and strongest military.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 15 2026 01:46am