Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 25 2020 04:27pm)

Well, the writing was kinda on the wall in early March imho. Trump had survived impeachment, the economy was humming, and the Democratic primaries were unsuccessful at closing the deep divides within the party - Biden was the lowest common denominator, uninspiring, clearly way past his peak, equally gaffe-prone as Trump. It was obvious that extensive campaigning would benefit Trump more than Biden, and that he would again hold an advantage in the electoral college. Polls in early March pointed to a tossup race, but all these underlying factors pointed in Trump's favor.

Then, over night, the economy went to shit, the issue of public health and healthcare became the focus of the political debate (traditionally one of the best issues for Democrats), and Trump's campaign rallies became impossible, while Biden's aides had the perfect excuse to hide his senile ass from the public. And then, just when things started to look marginally better for Trump on the corona-front, the George Floyd murder happened, which was just a lose-lose situation for Trump.

Edit: we do have one strong data point on the scope of support for Biden among Democrats: his inability to clear the field during the primaries. It literally took until the last moment, until Bernie threatened to run away with the nomination, before the party coalesced around him.

Quote (Thor123422 @ 25 Jun 2020 23:54)

I don't even agree about the strong data point lol. It didn't take "until the last moment", Bernie was effectively out on March 3rd and dropped by early April. I don't think even half of the delegates were pledged when Bernie officially dropped out.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 25 Jun 2020 17:27)

Well, the writing was kinda on the wall in early March imho. Trump had survived impeachment, the economy was humming, and the Democratic primaries were unsuccessful at closing the deep divides within the party - Biden was the lowest common denominator, uninspiring, clearly way past his peak, equally gaffe-prone as Trump. It was obvious that extensive campaigning would benefit Trump more than Biden, and that he would again hold an advantage in the electoral college. Polls in early March pointed to a tossup race, but all these underlying factors pointed in Trump's favor.

Then, over night, the economy went to shit, the issue of public health and healthcare became the focus of the political debate (traditionally one of the best issues for Democrats), and Trump's campaign rallies became impossible, while Biden's aides had the perfect excuse to hide his senile ass from the public. And then, just when things started to look marginally better for Trump on the corona-front, the George Floyd murder happened, which was just a lose-lose situation for Trump.



Edit: we do have one strong data point on the scope of support for Biden among Democrats: his inability to clear the field during the primaries. It literally took until the last moment, until Bernie threatened to run away with the nomination, before the party coalesced around him.

Quote (excellence @ 26 Jun 2020 00:25)

yeah the candidates with all the momentum fucking quit lol. threw their support behind Biden and Warren went silent splitting the progressive vote. fucking Buttgieg was beating Biden and quit anyway before super Tuesday..how the hell does that happen? (we know how, but in all practical terms really who does this)

"hey i'm winning the game but you know what i quit."

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 25 2020 05:15pm)

Biden had had atrocious showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Bernie had just decisively won Nevada, won in NH, and tied for the win in Iowa. Seven days later was South Carolina, which was long considered Biden's stronghold but where Bernie had been closing the gap in the polls, and another 2 days later was Super Tuesday, where Bernie looked positioned to open up a huge delegate lead. One big enough to potentially run away with the nomination despite the majority of the party establishment being against him, similar to what Trump did in 2016.

Then, when Biden showed the slightest sign of life in SC, the party rallied around him over night and he won Super Tuesday in a repudiation of Bernie. Yes, Bernie went from front-runner to effectively out within the span of 3 weeks - but that's because the rest of the party coalesced around the Biden quite literally over night. Biden is the nominee not because voters thought he was so great (wouldnt have finished in 5th place (sic!) in NH then...), no, he is the nominee because he was the most plausible Not-Bernie-candidate.

And now, Biden might well become president because Trump is self-destructing.

Quote (Thor123422 @ 26 Jun 2020 00:32)

So your point is what then? That it took 3 weeks for Democrats to rally around a candidate and therefore Biden is weak among Democrats?

The narrative from literally day one was that Bernie was doing good, but would flop if he couldn't do well in SC because the initial states were very white and had a favorable demographic make up for Bernie, whereas SC was a more typical demographic make up to the rest of the country. Super Tuesday was very early into the primary and catapulted Biden to a very strong lead. Yeah, he wasn't the frontrunner from day one in terms of delegate count, but he was from the start the one with the biggest chance of winning.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 25 2020 05:57pm)

It didnt take 3 weeks for Democrats to rally around Biden, it took them 2 days. (From the night of the SC primary to Super Tuesday.) The '3 weeks' referred to the time it took for Bernie to fall from front-runner status to 'all hope is lost'.
SC does not have a demographic makeup typical of the rest of the country. It's far less representative than Nevada, where Bernie had killed it.

Furthermore, the narrative was never that Bernie needed to do good in SC. It was plausible at the time that whites would remain divided between him and Biden even after a Biden win in SC, with blacks leaning Biden and latinos leaning Bernie going into Super Tuesday. That suburban whites in states like Michigan or Massachusetts would suddenly fall in line behind Biden was not a foregone conclusion at all.

Quote (Thor123422 @ 26 Jun 2020 01:16)

If they coalesced around Biden in two days that seems a pretty strong argument that he's not weak among Democrats. Still, the nation won't "commit" to Biden when asked about general election prospects while there's an active primary going on IMO, which effectively ended in the middle of March, and ended for sure in the middle of April

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 25 2020 06:27pm)

Alternatively, it's a strong argument for how much 70% of the party did not want Bernie as its standard bearer...