Quote (Black XistenZ @ 20 Nov 2018 17:54)
[tinfoil hat]
who says that "lots of small donor contributions" cant be astroturfed?
[/tinfoil hat]
and who says that having more people automatically means your coalition has more cash to spend?
and who says that 2018's Democratic fundraising advantage was the result of their coalition being "structurally dominant", as is usually implied in analyses like yours? couldnt this fundraising edge be a result of the enthusiasm gap instead? I, personally, would like to wait for an additional 1-2 cycles before concluding that the Democratic coalition's fundraising is reliably superior to the Republican coalition's. (excluding billionaire money from super PACs on both sides.)
Pew Research estimates that 8% more of US adults identify as Democrats than Republicans. That's a whole lot of people. You're right, that doesn't necessarily translate into more small and large individual contributions every election cycle. You're also correct that enthusiasm won't always be as high for the Left as it was during these midterms. Enthusiasm was probably higher in the 2010 and 2014 midterms for Republicans, for instance.
But controlling for these factors, over long periods of time, unless there is a dramatic shift in party affiliation in the United States (and there very well could be, depending on the party's platforms over these next few decades), the Democrats will likely have a relatively large edge in small and large individual political donation contributions for the foreseeable future across most major political races.
I've debated with many of my friends whether it should be legal to donate to a Senate, House, Governor, or state/local campaign of a state that you are not a resident of. In other words, should it be legal for millions of donations to pour into Beto O'Rourke's campaign from non-Texans? I go back on forth on this. On one hand, it's free speech per the SCOTUS (money is speech). On the other hand, from the delegate model of representation's perspective, elected officials probably should represent the will of their own constituents and not a broader, national constituency.
But as it stands now, I believe Democrats do have an advantage in terms of small and large individual political contributions. Republicans have an advantage with Super PACs since Citizens United. There's more money in politics as a whole, and I think it's a bad thing.