Quote (Thor123422 @ 25 Jun 2020 23:15)
I disagree that Trump was the clear favorite. I don't remember a time where this wasn't a toss up in the polls, and regardless that was the very end of the Democrat primary process, so we don't exactly have a clear picture of the full support for Biden at that point anyway.
Well, the writing was kinda on the wall in early March imho. Trump had survived impeachment, the economy was humming, and the Democratic primaries were unsuccessful at closing the deep divides within the party - Biden was the lowest common denominator, uninspiring, clearly way past his peak, equally gaffe-prone as Trump. It was obvious that extensive campaigning would benefit Trump more than Biden, and that he would again hold an advantage in the electoral college. Polls in early March pointed to a tossup race, but all these underlying factors pointed in Trump's favor.
Then, over night, the economy went to shit, the issue of public health and healthcare became the focus of the political debate (traditionally one of the best issues for Democrats), and Trump's campaign rallies became impossible, while Biden's aides had the perfect excuse to hide his senile ass from the public. And then, just when things started to look marginally better for Trump on the corona-front, the George Floyd murder happened, which was just a lose-lose situation for Trump.
Edit: we do have one strong data point on the scope of support for Biden among Democrats: his inability to clear the field during the primaries. It literally took until the last moment, until Bernie threatened to run away with the nomination, before the party coalesced around him.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 25 2020 03:29pm