Quote (Ghot @ Jun 19 2020 07:20pm)

THAT is a fact. It's a sick society that forces people to stay alive, so they can pay more hospital bills. :/


/e My father spent 4.5 years in a wheel chair after his 2nd stroke. Numb on one side, paralyzed on the other. I definitely would not want to go through that.

Quote (Plaguefear @ Jun 19 2020 06:41am)

Grandfather, Parkinson's + Alzheimer's.
He had a stroke also.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 18 2020 09:44pm)

Well, Trump has botched his part of the coronavirus response and was on the wrong side of public opinion in the aftermath of George Floyd. More generally, these two current crises raise the importance of the topics of 'healthcare' and 'racial relations', which are quite literally his worst two issues. On top of that, the coronavirus pandemic has shredded his strongest selling argument, the booming economy, through no fault of his own.

Trump was very lucky throughout his first 3 years in office when it comes to external crises, but now he got hit by a huge, nasty double whammy with which any incumbent would have struggled.
The point I'm tryign to make is that Trump is quite clearly at a low point right now, and that it is reasonable to expect him to rebound quite a bit.

I think those numbers are good and roughly show where America is standing right now. If the election was held next Tuesday, Trump would imho indeed lose in a landslide. But like I said, there is plenty of reason to expect him to close the gap over the coming months. And in that case, those battleground polls show that Trump will once again hold a distinct advantage in the electoral college.



For example, according to these polls, Arizona is still 4.9% to the right of the nation as a whole, while it was R+5.5 in 2016. So the talk about how Arizona has shifted massively to the left seems overblown to me. From a strategic "where will the electoral college be if the race tightens"-point of view, the only really worrisome number in there for Trump is Florida. (And note that if it doesnt tighten, then he's toast anyway...) This might reflect Biden's relative strength with voters 65+, and how Trump has lost ground with this block since corona. I'm sceptical that this will stick though.

On the flip side, I'm surprised by those Pennsylvania numbers. With Biden being from the state and being less toxic to white working-class voters, I would have expected him to be a better fit for PA than Clinton was. Instead, those polls suggest hat PA has moved further to the right since 2016. Back then, it was R+2.8, now it stands at R+3.7. This is particularly strange since Michigan and Wisconsin have moved to the left. (MI from R+2.3 in 2016 to D+1.2, WI from R+2.9 to R+2.3.)

Quote (fuzzy159 @ 19 Jun 2020 20:42)

I live in PA. Nobody outside of Philly and Pittsburgh supports Biden. His stance on firearms ruined his chances in rural PA.

Quote (thundercock @ 19 Jun 2020 20:38)

This is a low point for Trump and I think he'll recover some. Florida is interesting because a lot of Puerto Ricans became permanent residents in Florida. Combine that with convicted felons being able to vote and I think that's enough to permanently shift Florida by a little bit.

I'm with you on Arizona. That would be a pretty remarkable change but Virginia changed quickly too. The Kelly vs. McSally race will also have a substantial impact as well I think.

Nate Silver is perplexed by PA and MI as well. Why would Michigan go further blue but Pennsylvania go further to the right? Is PA more like Ohio? Is it polling error? It's difficult to say.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 19 2020 09:29pm)

But hasnt PA outside of Philly and Pittsburgh always been deep red territory? I mean, they literally call it "Pennsyltucky"...
This has never stopped Democrats from winning the state though, since half the state's population lives in these two metros. Trump only won in 2016 because of disparate turnout. If Biden gets good turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh (and the nearby suburbs), then Trump can get as much turnout and margins out of the rural and exurban parts of the state as he wants, it still wont be enough.

Quote (Ghot @ 20 Jun 2020 03:47)

PA population: 12.8 mill

Total Pittsburgh and Philly population: 2 mill

Of the people I know in the Pittsburgh area, I'd say 65-70% will vote Dem.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 19 2020 11:20pm)

You have to include the whole metro area, not just he core cities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

According to this list, Philly metro has ~6m and Pittsburgh metro around 2m people. Now, the definition of those metro areas is relatively wide, so there will be some exurbs included in these numbers which politically lean republican. And some parts of metro Philly lie outside of the PA state borders. So all in all, what I said is about right: these two metro areas will have around 6-7m people between them, which is half the population of the state.

Quote (excellence @ 24 Jun 2020 02:19)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evNBW6OGjeQ

this isn't funny anymore

https://www.al.com/birmingham-news-stories/2013/05/bull_connor_used_fire_hoses_po.html

the event Biden is mentioning happened in 1963, where a (D) elected official of the same vein as Robert Byrd (D) committed a horrific act against minorities. he said he remembered 'watching it in grade school'. Biden was born in November of 1942..so he was 20 at the time.
MAY 3, 1963 -- With an estimated 40 percent of the student body at the all-black Parker High School skipping class to protest and the Birmingham City Jail filled beyond capacity, Birmingham Public Safety Commissioner Bull Connor (D) ordered the use of fire hoses and police dogs on the protestors.