Quote

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said.

Quote (IceMage @ Mar 17 2020 11:06am)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html



Here's the study:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Quote (ofthevoid @ 17 Mar 2020 11:25)

Cool. Another worst-case sky is falling point of view. I wish researchers and the media would at least try to inform people that a worst case scenario that has a probability of 1/some very large number is not the expected outcome. At least put in a small paragraph, sentence or two with how E(x) is calculated and hypothetical probability distribution.

Instead people read these headlines and end up buying 200 cans of soups and preparing for doomsday.

Quote (excellence @ Mar 17 2020 11:27am)

fine with me, theres a solution for that
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CPB/

;)

Quote (ofthevoid @ 17 Mar 2020 16:25)

Cool. Another worst-case sky is falling point of view. I wish researchers and the media would at least try to inform people that a worst case scenario that has a probability of 1/some very large number is not the expected outcome. At least put in a small paragraph, sentence or two with how E(x) is calculated and hypothetical probability distribution.

Instead people read these headlines and end up buying 200 cans of soups and preparing for doomsday.

Quote (IceMage @ 17 Mar 2020 16:06)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html



Here's the study:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Quote (fender @ Mar 17 2020 11:49am)

that's pretty rich coming from a trump cultist. you know, the guy who repeatedly lied about this, severely undermined america's capability to deal with a pandemic, and refuses to take any responsibility or show any kind of leadership on the issue.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX7HWy9rFrc

Quote (ofthevoid @ 17 Mar 2020 11:55)

Unlike you i don't hinge on Trumps words. Trump is just a man with limited understanding with average IQ with no expertise on epidemiology, etc. Him trying to minimize the impact so people don't panic is understandable maybe it made things worse maybe not, idk. If you make your decisions on travel or health based on what Trump said i feel bad for you tbh. Can you quantify his 'severely undermined' statement? Like what specific policy has Trump enacted that did this?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 17 2020 11:55am)

I've already discussed this yesterday in several lengthy posts: there's NO. FUCKING. WAY. to keep up the current levels of public shutdown for 18 months. The economic - but also social and psychological - devastations would be far too huge. If there's no light at the end of the tunnel by the end of April or early May, a choice will have to be made: either sacrifice the vulnerable populations, which skew old and sick, or risk a complete economic meltdown, followed by famine, mass unemployment, riots, civil war - all of which taking place on a global scale.