Quote (Thor123422 @ 19 Feb 2017 22:55)
I agree, but it's hardly possible to argue that without FBI interference right before the election Hillary would be president.
are there any numbers on how many percent the comey letter cost clinton? iirc, she was already, for several days, massively losing ground in the polls before the fbi news broke. its hard to disentangle those trends...
point is though: the three states that proved decisive were florida, wisconsin and pennsylvania. trump didnt need to win michigan, he didnt need to win either wisconsin or pennsylvania. all he needed to do was hold onto florida and win one out of wisconsin and penns. in florida, his winning margin was 1.2%, in wisconsin and pennsylvania, it was 0.76% and 0.72%, respectively. those were the tipping point states.
one can certainly argue that his win in wisconsin might not have happened without the comey letter. but both florida and pennsylvania were heavily campaigned and are depply polarized states. pretty much everybody in those two states had already made his mind or had a very strong leaning towards one candidate before this story broke. and we dont know for sure whether this story had that much of an impact on each and every swing voter. so until I see numbers that prove the opposite, I dare to disagree. IMHO without the comey letter, the election would not have been a clear victory for clinton but instead would have developed into a true nailbiter, with pennsylvania being the decisive state and being down to a margin of sub-0.15%.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 19 2017 07:24pm