So 538 has their poll tracker up and running now:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/Biden is up 8.8 nationally which is pretty large (roughly on par with Clinton vs. Dole). One more point up and you're looking at Reagan vs. Carter. Anyway, that doesn't matter right now because you want to look at polling in swing states. Here is a run down of where we're at now:
Arizona is +3.9 for Biden
Florida is +6.8 for Biden
Georgia is +0.8 for Biden
Iowa is +0.7 for Trump
Michigan is averaging +10 for Biden
Nevada is +7.9 for Biden
New Hampshire is +7.2 for Biden
North Carolina is +2.8 for Biden
Ohio is +2.6 for Biden
Pennsylvania is +5.1 for Biden
Texas is +0.8 for Trump
Wisconsin is averaging +6.5 for Biden
If the election were held today, you would see a 368-170 landslide victory. If Biden pulls off Texas, you're looking at 400+ electoral votes. The fact that Texas, Iowa, and Georgia are in play right now is an unmitigated disaster for the Trump campaign.
In order to make this competitive, Trump needs to increase his polling average by about 5 points. If Biden is only up by 4-5% nation wide, Trump has a very real possibility of pulling off an electoral win.