Russia's debt to GDP is like 17% or so I read and they have a massive gold reserve and are sitting on massive natural resources like oil / gas / minerals.
The bulk of Russia's vast reserves of various natural resources are untapped, though. Nice for the long-term outlook, but unexplored gas fields or mineral deposits in Siberia would take years to get online and won't pay their soldiers or drones in the here and now.
Having a low debt to GDP ratio is nice, but doesn't go that far if said GDP is low. Going from a 20% debt to GDP rate to 100% would only raise them around $1.8 trillion.
That's basically a card they can only play once, and it doesn't go thaaat far. For comparison: the US going from their current debt level of 125% of GDP to just 135% would raise $3 trillion.
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That being said, I agree that we've heard the same stories about how Russia's NWF is about to run out 12-24 months ago. Dito about them running out of shells. Russia is clearly in a situation which isn't sustainable indefinitely, but for how long exactly they can keep it up is hard to tell. For now, it would be foolish to bank on them running out of steam anytime soon. The bigger reason for optimism from a pro-Ukrainian perspective is that the pace of Russian advances on the battlefield seem to have gone down markedly over the last 2 or so months.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 7 2025 10:14am