Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 6 2024 09:38am)

I really think you're overreacting. The election is 4 months away. Biden gave a bad debate performance, a bit raspy. All he had to do to shake off the sleepy joe label last time was give a single performance while fully awake like his state of the union or his dark brandon vengeance speech, and he'll do it again between now and the election. All the voters are going to simply forget this episode. There was already a primary process, and Biden won it handily, twice in a row. Its what the democrat voters chose and they can't be disenfranchised on the whim of a dogpiling media.

Biden still has a good chance of winning this election, maybe even better than 50%. Trump is still fighting through the democrats labeling him as a felon to try to dissuade tuned out grannies, and they'll continue to focus the smear cannon with full force. Four years ago the media circled the wagons to suppress the hunter biden laptop, they'll give him the same kind of leg up this time around too. If Biden does win, are you going to call it a fluke?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 6 2024 11:34am)

There's no chance for Democrats to bypass VP Kamala Harris for anyone but Michelle Obama without tanking black enthusiasm... in a year when they're already struggling with black voters anyway.
Likewise, Shapiro is clearly a rising star in the party, but would be a horrible candidate in 2024, a year when significant chunks of young and/or progressive voters are up in arms over Gaza and antisemitism is running rampant.

Quote (IceMage @ 6 Jul 2024 22:09)

Why? Kamala Harris isn't popular... not even with black voters. Why is choosing a popular ticket impossible?

All I'm hearing is "this is why Democrats won't choose to win". What if they do?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 6 2024 01:16pm)

Maybe they could get away with a Whitmer/Warnock ticket or something along these lines - but the party is absolutely obsessed with identity politics and passing over the black female heir apparent in favor of an all-white ticket is a complete non-starter. Although Warnock obviously isn't an option because Republicans would be nearly guaranteed to win back his Senate seat if it came open this cycle. So maybe Whitmer/Wes Moore or something like that.

Their far and away best option would of course be Michelle Obama, but she's just not interested.

Also note that Harris would have immediate access to all the campaign funds of the Biden/Harris ticket while other candidates would not, so they'd need to either raise hundreds of millions of additional donor money, or come up with a complicated refund-redonate scheme.

Quote (IceMage @ 6 Jul 2024 22:23)

Whitmer/Shapiro locks up 2 swing states. The party is obsessed with identity politics, but the voters aren't. Why not consider which ticket would have the most success?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 6 2024 01:37pm)

Because the primary is dominated by partisans and activists, not the normie, middle of the road swing voter.
And again: Shapiro would be a high-risk pick in this environment when a sizable chunk of the party base is up in arms over Gaza. Look no further than Thursday's UK elections in which Labour tanked by 10-20% in Muslim-heavy seats.
Even just the sheer fact that he's outspoken and staunchly pro-Israel would invite questions and debates on the one issue which is dividing the Dem base like no other, the one issue they desperately want to go away.

Furthermore, none of the rising star governors have an incentive to jump into this race as the VP candidate. Their chances of winning would be 50% at best, and even if their ticket wins, Whitmer is clearly too young to speculate on succeeding to the presidency. For the ambitious governors, it's far easier to watch Biden or Harris get flattened by Trump and vie for the presidential nomination in 2028.

Quote (IceMage @ 6 Jul 2024 23:06)

What matters is which ticket would be most successful.