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Nov 7 2018 02:53pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ 7 Nov 2018 21:35)
I agree with your analysis in this post. I think you're spot-on about Texas and Beto in the future.

Yes, Texas is still a Republican stronghold. This race had all the makings of an upset (more money, strong national advantage, dislikeable incumbent, attractive/likeable challenger) and Democrats still couldn't pull it off. It was close, but it's also hard to imagine a better set of circumstances for Democrats short of the Republican being a pedophile or being involved in some scandal.

And yes, Beto should run in 2020. It's his best shot for all the reasons you mentioned. And I agree, he's got a good shot at it. I think Democrats would pick him over Harris and Warren. If Biden runs, I don't know if Democrats will turn him down. I see Biden doing well in a lot of the same states Clinton did well in during the 2016 primaries and obviosuly having a lot more internal party support. Democrats would play themselves again.

But ultimately I think the 2020 election will come down to the strength of the economy. If the economy is still strong, I don't see Trump losing to anyone as the incumbent.


Well, the economy was strong in 2018 as well, and it didnt really translate into electoral success for the republicans. Health care and immigration quite easily shoved the economy aside as an issue. So my guess is that most americans are happy with the economy right now, but they arent enthusiastic about it either. In the end, the pull of the ongoing culture war is stronger.

I also think that Trump will win reelection in 2020 if the economy is still strong, but I'm far less sure of it. A lot will depend on the strength of the opponent.

----

A nice summary of the midterms:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/674476?unlock=Y2S8NYBX4MW7GX0S

"Voters Want Balance, Not Resistance"

Quote
The split-decision verdict that Americans rendered on a wild, unpredictable Election Night—Democrats sweeping the suburbs to win back the House, Republicans expanding their Senate majority and holding pivotal battleground governorships—is a clear sign that voters want a check on President Trump but don’t necessarily trust Democrats with full governing responsibility.

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Nov 7 2018 02:55pm
Quote (djman72 @ Nov 7 2018 02:49pm)


perhaps you were using terms interchangeably that i wasn't. your posts suggested to me that you thought the DNC built up Beto, perhaps you were being far more general in both who did the manufacturing and the implications. the DNC came into it late in the game comparatively.

regardless you seem to be the only poster who thinks yesterday was a loss for the left in this thread, im not sure it bears fruit to speak on anymore at this point. everyone on both sides of the spectrum seems to be in agreement that yesterday was a win for the left, in spite of not taking a seat. when you said it was a loss because they lost i thought you were trolling with a hyperbolic meme post, i'm still not really sure what you think tbh. but if you think yesterday wasn't more of a win for the dems than a loss i cant really say anything else to illustrate my point. maybe you dont think that, like i said im not sure where you're even at on this. Cruz won so the left lost is a meme thought, its not a legitimate thought. if that sums up your stance idk what to say, i cant think that simply unless im posting memes.
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Nov 7 2018 03:01pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 7 Nov 2018 15:53)
Well, the economy was strong in 2018 as well, and it didnt really translate into electoral success for the republicans. Health care and immigration quite easily shoved the economy aside as an issue. So my guess is that most americans are happy with the economy right now, but they arent enthusiastic about it either. In the end, the pull of the ongoing culture war is stronger.

I also think that Trump will win reelection in 2020 if the economy is still strong, but I'm far less sure of it. A lot will depend on the strength of the opponent.

----

A nice summary of the midterms:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/674476?unlock=Y2S8NYBX4MW7GX0S

"Voters Want Balance, Not Resistance"


Republicans also had to fight against having a historically unpopular president. The strength of the economy prevented a full-on blue wave. In that sense, I think the economy was still a big underlying factor. If the economy went south from 2016-2018, Democrats might have even taken the Senate.

I mostly agree with National Journal's summary. But Democrats still got what, +9-10 points nationally? That's quite a lot, but we'll have to wait for the final numbers. I think a lot of this comes down to a regional and geographic advantage for Republicans. They had a really good Senate map. But what happened in the purple state of Florida would be a good counter to my point.
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Nov 7 2018 03:12pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Nov 7 2018 03:55pm)
perhaps you were using terms interchangeably that i wasn't. your posts suggested to me that you thought the DNC built up Beto, perhaps you were being far more general in both who did the manufacturing and the implications. the DNC came into it late in the game comparatively.

regardless you seem to be the only poster who thinks yesterday was a loss for the left in this thread, im not sure it bears fruit to speak on anymore at this point. everyone on both sides of the spectrum seems to be in agreement that yesterday was a win for the left, in spite of not taking a seat. when you said it was a loss because they lost i thought you were trolling with a hyperbolic meme post, i'm still not really sure what you think tbh. but if you think yesterday wasn't more of a win for the dems than a loss i cant really say anything else to illustrate my point. maybe you dont think that, like i said im not sure where you're even at on this. Cruz won so the left lost is a meme thought, its not a legitimate thought. if that sums up your stance idk what to say, i cant think that simply unless im posting memes.


Nope, I think it was a win for the left as expected. I don't think it was a very big win though.I thought I made that pretty clear, but who knows. I went trolling for the most part today.

I just find the Beto/Cruz thing fascinating as a whole and have a different take on it. Overall, the night went to democrats but was certainly not a big ole fat blue wave like we were told.

I'm more interested now with the Sessions situation.
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Nov 7 2018 03:15pm
Quote (djman72 @ Nov 7 2018 03:12pm)
Nope, I think it was a win for the left as expected. I don't think it was a very big win though.I thought I made that pretty clear, but who knows. I went trolling for the most part today.

I just find the Beto/Cruz thing fascinating as a whole and have a different take on it. Overall, the night went to democrats but was certainly not a big ole fat blue wave like we were told.

I'm more interested now with the Sessions situation.


i think we agree on almost all counts entirely then, especially the sessions situation being a better topic moving forward.
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Nov 7 2018 03:53pm
The left achieved their minimum goal, taking at least one chamber and putting Trump's legislative agenda to a halt.

They failed at all their other goals: they didnt take the senate, they didnt keep their losses on a tough senate map to a minimum either, they now have much worse chances of retaking that chamber in 2020.
They failed to win the high-profile races in texas, florida and georgia, which in turn means that the strategy of running as an unabashed liberal in red or purple states did not pay off. Meanwhile, House democrats with their strategy of running a lot of centrist candidates paid off. Big win for the moderate wing of the Democratic party over its left wing.
They also failed at their goal of creating a midterms result that must be read as a clear-cut repudiation of President Trump.

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Nov 7 2018 04:55pm
So,

Mitt Romney is going to try to primary Trump in 2020. Using the Senate as a springboard.

Thoughts?
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Nov 7 2018 04:57pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 7 Nov 2018 23:55)
So,

Mitt Romney is going to try to primary Trump in 2020. Using the Senate as a springboard.

Thoughts?


ridiculous. he had his chance and lost it, while trump won.

if the second half of his first term goes badly, trump could see a forceful challenge in the primary. but definitely not the proven loser Romney, who is out of touch with everyday americans and increasingly out of touch with the republican base on policy.
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Nov 7 2018 05:01pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 7 2018 03:57pm)
ridiculous. he had his chance and lost it, while trump won.

if the second half of his first term goes badly, trump could see a forceful challenge in the primary. but definitely not the proven loser Romney, who is out of touch with everyday americans and increasingly out of touch with the republican base on policy.


so you don't think Romney will try?
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Nov 7 2018 05:03pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 8 Nov 2018 00:01)
so you don't think Romney will try?


i honestly dont know. he might try. but im sure that he will not be able to mount a significant challenge. the party has moved on from Romney and what he stands for. outside of mormon-dominated Utah, trump is a lot closer to the pulse of the base than romney is or ever was.
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