Quote (ThatAlex @ 7 Nov 2018 21:35)
I agree with your analysis in this post. I think you're spot-on about Texas and Beto in the future.
Yes, Texas is still a Republican stronghold. This race had all the makings of an upset (more money, strong national advantage, dislikeable incumbent, attractive/likeable challenger) and Democrats still couldn't pull it off. It was close, but it's also hard to imagine a better set of circumstances for Democrats short of the Republican being a pedophile or being involved in some scandal.
And yes, Beto should run in 2020. It's his best shot for all the reasons you mentioned. And I agree, he's got a good shot at it. I think Democrats would pick him over Harris and Warren. If Biden runs, I don't know if Democrats will turn him down. I see Biden doing well in a lot of the same states Clinton did well in during the 2016 primaries and obviosuly having a lot more internal party support. Democrats would play themselves again.
But ultimately I think the 2020 election will come down to the strength of the economy. If the economy is still strong, I don't see Trump losing to anyone as the incumbent.
Well, the economy was strong in 2018 as well, and it didnt really translate into electoral success for the republicans. Health care and immigration quite easily shoved the economy aside as an issue. So my guess is that most americans are happy with the economy right now, but they arent enthusiastic about it either. In the end, the pull of the ongoing culture war is stronger.
I also think that Trump will win reelection in 2020 if the economy is still strong, but I'm far less sure of it. A lot will depend on the strength of the opponent.
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A nice summary of the midterms:
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/674476?unlock=Y2S8NYBX4MW7GX0S"Voters Want Balance, Not Resistance"
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The split-decision verdict that Americans rendered on a wild, unpredictable Election Night—Democrats sweeping the suburbs to win back the House, Republicans expanding their Senate majority and holding pivotal battleground governorships—is a clear sign that voters want a check on President Trump but don’t necessarily trust Democrats with full governing responsibility.