Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 3 2020 05:02pm)
Now that I have looked into it again, I think this site suffers from a fatal flaw: the assumption that NPA's will break down proportionally to the partisan margin in their respective county. In other words: his entire methodology is good at predicting an election which is decided by base turnout, but sucks at detecting voter movement based on persuasion.
There are polls which show Biden having a big advantage with independents this year, others show them almost tied in FL. This website tells us how the FL race will end up if the latter scenario for the breakdown of indies is true, but it will underestimate Biden substantially if Biden's attempts at persuading seniors, moderates and unaffilated young voters were successful.
Yeah, I picked up on that later in the day, as well. It's a "this bag of M&Ms has 15 red and 30 green in it, so every bag should have the same distribution" scenario. NPA polling in FL has run in the 55D/43R/2 3rd Party range.