Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 27 Jul 2018 01:39)
You should keep in mind that democrats are disadvantaged in both the senate and the house for natural, geographic reasons, and further disadvantaged in the house by gerrymandering.
(Gerrymandering is pursued by both parties, but more frequently by the GOP, so that gerrymandering is a net positive for the GOP when looking at the house in it's entirety. There are states, for example Maryland, which are gerrymandered in the Democrats' favor though.)
Therefore, most experts believe that the Democrats need to win the house popular vote by somewhere between 6 and 9 percentage points to take back the house. So as things stand now, the Democrats are slightly favored to take back the house, but it's actually still close to a coin flip at this point.
In the Senate, the Democrats are facing a
horrendous map, so that they would need a wave election of epic proportions to actually take over the Senate this fall, and there's a nontrivial chance that the Democrats
lose a seat or two in the Senate even if 2018 turns into a moderate-sized wave election for the Democrats.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 27 2018 06:43am