Quote (Goomshill @ Dec 9 2024 02:11am)
Trump is a noninterventionalist and this is low on his priorities with a full plate. Russia is unable to project strength. As is the IDF and Iran as they lose their foothold Nature abhors a power vacuum. Whether its the second rise of ISIS or another world power inserting itself, the outcome will not be advantageous to the US. Has the fall of an organized arab/persian state into anarchy ever?
Going to balkanize idk what glues it together at this point. You'll have Israel influence in south. Turk influence in the north, Turks and their proxies will duke it out with the Kurds in the north east which is the obvious next war. Central part where most of the population is, going to be a clusterfuck of competing influences, too muddy to know what happens but Sunni fundamentalists are in charge now? We can buy influence by arming the strongest faction. Russians retain their remnant base by giving grain to a hungry country, but those bases are worth a fraction now without the general influence on ruler.
We 'win' by controlling the oil fields in the east and quietly extracting them while being shipped through Iraq. If this becomes a nation building exercise it will be terrible though, but i don't see that happening under Trump.