Obama tried to walk some tightrope and build inroads with both sides by buying off Iran and giving Saudis weapons for proxy wars. Trump gave staunch one sided support to the KSA and built a wide pan arab pan israel alliance against Iran, uniting a huge swathe of the mideast. Biden alienated all those same allies and pussyfooted our support and tried to economically bully them into a new iron curtain against Russia and they told us to go fuck ourselves and now the KSA is openly laying rails for non-dollar oil trading

Again its another example of how Biden actively made things much much worse, pissed away our global influence and set up the long term downfall of our empire. If he had really been just an ineffective empty chair like he did in afghanistan, at least we'd still have our influence and priorities even if they waned and lapsed a bit. Instead we stabbed allies in the back and empowered enemies

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said that Iran’s breakout time – the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – “is now probably one or two weeks” as Tehran has continued to develop its nuclear program.

The assessment marks the shortest breakout time that US officials have ever referenced and comes as Iran has taken steps in recent months to boost its production of fissile material.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html

So a while back there was a teensy-tiny incident between uncle sam and the Chinese in the south China sea. Guess who won?

The story begins with a minor conflict between the Philippines and China. Following a fierce confrontation at Ren’ai Reef, the Philippines felt aggrieved by China’s legitimate actions, and the US, as its backer, seized the opportunity. A joint military exercise involving 29 countries was held in the South China Sea, ostensibly to showcase “unity” and “strength,” but with hidden motives—the US military intended to use this opportunity to lay newly developed anti-submarine devices on the seabed, spying on the movements of China’s strategic nuclear submarines and further restricting China’s strategic space.
However, China’s response was swift and decisive. When the US military’s P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft quietly dropped high-tech monitoring equipment in the South China Sea, it was promptly detected by the PLA. The Chinese Coast Guard quickly launched a recovery operation. The US military panicked, as losing this equipment would mean wasted effort, and the advanced technology could not fall into PLA hands. This sparked a sensitive reaction, leading to a battle over these critical pieces of equipment.
In this battlefield without smoke, electronic warfare took center stage. The US deployed Growler electronic warfare aircraft and RC-135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft in an all-out effort to paralyze the command systems of the Chinese fleet with strong electronic interference. However, the Chinese forces did not retreat; the Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft and 815A electronic reconnaissance ship quickly countered, engaging in fierce electronic offensive and defensive operations over the South China Sea.
The intense electronic warfare near the northern Philippines far exceeded external expectations. Ultimately, the US fleet faced an unprecedented crisis—screens full of static and a total loss of GPS signals. In modern naval warfare, losing communication and navigation capabilities is akin to losing sight and hearing. Confronted with such a scenario, the US had to choose to retreat to avoid greater losses.

https://archive.is/ZfpVh

The North American Aerospace Defense Command intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers flying near Alaska Wednesday in what a US defense official said was the first time the two countries have been intercepted while operating together.
The US and Canada, which together comprise NORAD, intercepted the Russian TU-95 Bear and Chinese H-6 bombers

He also reiterated that the US is concerned about the growing relationship between Russia and China, “mostly because we’re concerned about China providing support to Russia’s illegal and unnecessary war in Ukraine.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/politics/norad-russian-chinese-bombers-alaska/index.html

Its probably the most direct and visible sign of the new axis against the west. Actual chinese and russian bombers flying together, closer ties than the cold war rivalry, brought together by their opposition to america.

You might need to start including India in the new Axis:
(2022 article)
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/demographics-push-china-india-russia-triple-entente/

India's chief economic advisor proposes to promote Chinese investment in India.

Modi asked Putin to help mediate the India-China border dispute.

The world is realigning under the gravitational pull of China's supply chains and infrastructure investment as well as shrewd foreign diplomacy.

India is a bit different. They have historically close trade ties with Russia and have always supported a position of bloc neutrality, but they have significant border conflicts with China and chafe at Chinese influence in places like Sri Lanka. They're not on anyone's side but India's, and they won't let anyone tell them who they can or can't trade with.

I think you are forgetting military cooperation, particularly during 1971 conflict where USSR came to aid India in a crucial fight against Pakistan supported by UK/US. That conflict culminated in complete surrender of east pakistan army which became known as Bangladesh as well as cementing of Soviet/Indian relations that still remain relevant to this day. Hindi rusi bhai bhai.

Serving in the military that still relies heavily on Russian hardware is extremely prestigious in India, prestige rivaled only by Computer Science jobs.

And yeah, I agree that India will not choose sides, however, unlike the Europeans, India refuses to be bullied with sanctions.

China border tensions are known - however if those are resolved (with eg Russian mediation) this would signify a new era of China-India relations.

I find this guy, Chris Macintosh to be absolutely brilliant and have been a long time follower. He's a hedge fund manager and did ~hour long interview recently, focusing on a few different things, mostly investing related but many of the subjects touch on themes such as geopolitics/capital flows. Highly recommend.

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon’s current National Defense Strategy is out of date, America’s military inappropriately structured and the US industrial base is “grossly inadequate” to confront the dual threats of Russia and China, according to a new, high-powered formal review.
In Europe, the report says the NDS was wrong to call Russia, like many US officials have since, an “acute threat.” The term, it says, “underestimates the threat from Russia by implying it is intense but limited in duration.” Rather, the threat from Moscow is “chronic,” the report says, “ongoing and persistent.”

To counter the Kremlin in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, the Commission says the “only viable course of action is to increase the scale, capability, and freedom to use material provided to Ukraine so that it can push Russia back.”

It also calls for the US to “boost its forward presence in Eastern Europe — built around an armored corps and complete with headquarters, fires, air defenses and armored, sustainment and aviation units — to deter Russian aggression against NATO’s eastern flank.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/07/national-defense-commission-pentagon-has-insufficient-forces-inadequate-to-face-china-russia/?amp=1



This post was edited by zorzin on Jul 30 2024 08:09am