Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 7 2023 06:02pm)
So another question- what
is the proximate cause for this conflict?
There's the null hypothesis, that Hamas was just waiting for an opportunity and to assemble an invasion when they were ready, trying to organize under Mossad's raider and pulled the trigger just because they could
but then there's the more macro oriented questions, like what if Hamas leadership rushed this plan out because they felt threatened by Israel normalizing relations with the KSA and all the other non-Iranian powers?
this flareup is going to have the immediate impact of souring relations between Israel and the Saudis right as Biden was starting to reengage on what Trump started after 3 long years of being asleep. Remember, this was the conversation just a week ago;
https://www.ibanet.org/article/D2659617-4CAB-4FE9-8B60-A971485EC3D6Western media has been largely silent on it, but notably Arab media has been enflamed in the past few weeks on the eve of this deal, so there's a good chance
this is the true spark
Simple answer is because there was no resolution in sight while Israel continued to build settlements and Palestinians were basically left in no mans land, forgotten, as Israel continued to normalize relations with the rest of the Muslims around them. I don't know how sophisticated Hamas is but I think this was the punch (maybe Iran sponsored/instigated?), fully knowing there will be a counter punch which undoubtedly will happen. The counter punch is possibly the inflaming that may drag some of these other forces and serve as the rallying cry.
I seen things on Twitter that Hezbollah warning that if Israel goes into Gaza with boots on the ground, they will attack (unconfirmed could be total internet BS). I could see relations between Israel and Egypt/Turkey/SA souring depending on what they do next.
Israel's foes in Palestine can't win in a kinetic way, but they can win by setting the region on fire and giving the snackbars a rallying cry. I mean look at all across the Muslim world. Literally tens of thousands in streets shouting praise for this, while there's literally dozens of footage of civilians getting gun downed and many more being carried away as human shields. Even if you hate a country, how can you cheer for unarmed civilians to be massacred or carried away like animals?