Quote (ferdia @ Aug 15 2023 07:48am)
Nigeria is completely different from Niger though. Also forget about BRIC's and all that, that is no where on the table here. For Niger the conundrum is the route to stability, unless I am completely off.
to my mind this story is going to go away, while events will not.
Nigeria is much more stable and 10x larger compared to Niger. They have insurgencies from Islamists but generally speaking they don't face much risk compared to some of these other countries. They are a huge oil exporter and the largest economy in Africa. Instability in Niger is a net negative for them for a few reasons really, refugees, the oil/gas pipelines, a home for insurgency but at the end of the day you won't see something happen in Nigeria compared to the string of Sahel-region instability.
More I think about this situation, I don't really support the coup because I think it's a net negative for the country as foreign aid is/will be stopped and they will be excluded/disconnected in many ways, but I also don't support any sort of armed intervention. I just don't really see how a war would actually make things any better? If anything it guarantees a lot of civilian deaths and for what tangible benefit exactly?