I think Putin finally fell for the trap that eventually takes down all autocrats: he was surrounded by sycophants and yes-men and started buying into his own propaganda and hype. Basically, he thought that he could take the rest of Ukraine like he could take Crimea back in 2014: in a blitz, without facing any noteworthy resistance, with his troops perhaps even being greeted as liberators by a significant share of the local population. And he seemingly thought that the West was pussified and weak and wouldn't do anything about it out of fear of nuclear escalation or Putin cutting off the gas pipelines.


But yeah, I think since world war II, every single military confrontation in which the fighting went on longer than ~2 weeks was eventually won by the defender. Happened in Vietnam, happened twice in Afghanistan (to the Soviets and the U.S.), happened in Iraq once we decided to stay there, happened in Syria, seems to happen in Ukraine, would presumably happen in the states of former Yugoslavia if not for permanently stationed KFOR troops, and the list goes on and on.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 19 2022 01:06pm

I think it depends on the geography and the level of resistance that the population can muster. I agree with your assessment that Russia can't take on Poland because the Poles would fight to the death. I'm not convinced that the Baltics can survive a Russian invasion though simply due to geography. Russia could cause Germany to surrender within a matter of days just by threatening to cut off gas and creating a naval blockade. Ideally, the Germans would get the Brits and/or Americans to help lift the blockade but if Republicans win the WH, I don't think America would help because the consensus is "Germany doesn't pay it's fair share." I can't comment on Romania but I have to imagine that they'd fall quickly due to the number of gypsies.

funny that the "ukraine is run by nazis and the people all hate them" propaganda even worked on Putin, bravo Kremlin.

I wish that be truth, hovewer Russia has a lot of artilleries, while Ukraine has too little weapons. At the moment Ukraine can only halt the Russian offense (temporarily or permanently? time will tell). Ukrainians arent strong enough to counterattack.
Little problem with NATO is that its not very united.
We got Trump who wants USA out of NATO, we got pacifist Germany/France (who will probably not move their asses until their own country is threatened and even then will rather give up quickly), we got Turkey who are friendly to Russia, we got Italy for whom Russia is as far away as Australia, obviously we got Russian trojan horse Hungary.
I understand NATO crushes Russia when you sum all countries potential, hovewer if Russia manages to attack and take single NATO countries one by one, Russia can potentially win.

the most effective defenders strategy is not to counter attack, its to wait for them to spend so much they go home.

The Baltics couldn't survive a Russian invasion, simply because they're too small. Their combined population is 6m, vs Ukraine's 42m.

In case you didn't notice, Putin has already cut off the gas to Germany almost completely. He couldn't blockade our coasts without infringing the territorial waters of NATO members Denmark, Norway and Netherlands. In reality, the Germans, French, Italian and so on would fight the Russian army head-on while they're still in Poland, if only to make sure that the main fights and devastation take place on someone else's soil and not our own.

Yea those 3 wouldn't fight anyone anywhere, UK+US yes but those 3 will only provide economic assistance/logistics but if Russia attacked Poland and occupied 10% of its territory in the east (hypothetical) those 3 would still sit with fingers up their butts, if it was Baltics even less so.

I see your point, hovewer we are talking about the very big area country that gets a lot of cash from its natural resources.
A country that spends much of their country production on their army.
A country where president dont have to care about election, where you can say any shit in TV and most people will accept it as truth.
A country that was saving gold for many years, so they can now use the reserves.
A country where president has gotten rid of whole opposition and left only trusted people in politics.
Unfortunately it doesnt help that China/India/Brasil are still trading with Russia like nothing happened. And for some products, like oil, countries can try to mix some of Russian product into their own and sell as their own and partially avoid the sanctions.
So they can keep up war spending for a while, like a year at least I would say.
Now lets talk about Ukraine losses.
When Russia enters an area, they forcefully move locals into mainland Russia, and they also bring their own citizens instead (although they might have little problem with the latter this time as war is still hot).
Ukraine can potentially take Kherson back in a year or 2, but you cant bring back people that Russia kidnapped.
In a year the city will be deserted.
Ukraine economy was already relatively small before the war, as the war risk didnt work good for business, hovewer now its further halved. The country is half bankrupt. West support is also lesser, we will have energy crisis this winter in Europe so it might further reduce support.

Maybe you will call me pesimistic, hovewer this is realism imo.

NATO - (LGBT FIGHTERS)

RF should be scared. We recruit men who yearn to fuck men. Of course we win, they won't risk losing.

This post was edited by Neptunus on Aug 19 2022 02:44pm