We should bailout Target and Walmart while sending mass aid to Ukraine. That'll solve it.

Because recession has a specific economic definition. Q1 of 2022 had an economic output drop (by GDP), but that has to persist for at least two quarters for it to be considered an actual recession, and we haven't hit that threshold yet. If Q2 has negative growth, then at that point you could consider it a recession.

We are already there, most metrics around this are lagged and government metrics molested. One thing we could have used from the Yang Gang was another lens to view economic conditions, GDP is insufficient.

I bought my house in 2016 for 100k. Today's zestimate range 166k-200k with an estimate value of 183.9k. The pain that is going to be felt after this bubble bursts is going to be legendary.

I think it's obvious to anyone.

The only reason there's any controversy as to whether we're in a recession is because the Pravda wants the Commies to try and salvage their waning political fortunes in a midterm election year. If OrangeMan was still in the white house, they'd be calling this "worse that the great depression" and blaring it from every rooftop right now.

Is it likely? Yes.

Is it officially? No. Those numbers should come out next month.

Since when has fact played a role in PARD?

at the very least,..

We can all agree on the forecast.

Those two companies still rely heavily on people being inside the stores and have a very small online footprint. Saying they haven't reached expectations is believable.

Now if amazon, doordash, or anyone with a huge online footprint tries to pull this shit tell them to fuck off.

A recession is likely but hasn't happened yet. That is just a fact.

In pretty much all areas, the economy is better placed going into a recession now compared to 2007/8:

1) Companies are missing earnings targets mainly due to lack of supply, not lack of demand
2) Unemployment is low and vacancies are at an ATH
3) Household debt is at a much lower rate than it was back then, in part due to unprecedented government support during the pandemic
4) Banks are required to hold a greater proportion of cash in reserve
5) Firms have lower leverage
6) More homeowners are on long term fixed rate mortgages than in 2008, so interest rate rises won't lead to a material increase in delinquencies

My main concern is that in Q1, inflation was centered on energy costs, which is far easier for governments to target by cutting fuel duties or VAT. In the last month we're seeing the CPI creep up in way more categories, which makes government intervention much harder

Overall, the evidence points to a mild recession