Quote (IceMage @ Sep 8 2021 11:10am)
Not all conspiracy theories are equally invalid. For instance, if we were to say hypothetically that Trump's campaign manager was in contact with a Russian intelligence operative during the campaign, and handed over internal campaign polling data in the midst of a Russian intelligence operation to influence the election, and then that campaign manager lied multiple times about related issues to the government after being indicted, and then Trump pardoned him, that would be substantively different than buildings in New York falling in a particular way on 9/11, or Trump giving symbolic clues to QAnon during press conferences.
The hypothetical is true, of course, and there's possible explanations outside of "Trump was in cahoots with Russia" for the fact pattern I laid out. There's also alternative explanations to the myriad of other suspicious fact patterns uncovered in the Russia investigation. But it was never unreasonable to think there might be something there, and it's still a reasonable position(although less tenable than it was a few years ago) to think Trump was in cahoots with Russia.
As to the broader point, it's true that dumber people are more willing to believe in conspiracies, but ideology and tribalism does a good job at making smart people believe in stupid things.
If people want to start with an insane premise and they find as many connected dots as they can that don't actually support that premise but tangentially reference it despite being having clear, mundane explanations, they can keep reinforcing whatever silly conspiracy theories they want to come up with. 9/11 truthers, qanons, its the same thing. Its like Spicy said, if Trump had eaten Russian salad dressing that would be one more 'Russian connection' to the likes of Maddow.
It was always an unreasonable premise, it always had absurd leaps and required extraordinary conspiracies where every actor was required to be simultaneously a master of deception who keeps all his connections meticulously hushed up while also being inept and clumsy and giving away his secrets in public by his missteps. That's one of the repeated themes of these various conspiracy theories. How many of them assume that there is some secret plot that has been covered up by dozens of people who had access to it for years, without ever letting a clue slip, except for when people started theorizing about it and assumed they had all these clues out in public because of their own incompetence. Jeff Sessions was totally in cahoots with Russia and had secret dealings the whole election and only tripped up when he tried to cover up meeting with the Russian ambassador in full view of hundreds of people and logged on official, public white house logs!
When there are actual 'conspiracies', or at least, scandals people try to cover up after the fact, there are mountains of evidence right in the public view that make it overwhelmingly obvious. Because people in real life aren't super spies who construct flawless plans and leave no traces. When Ilhan Omar tried to cover up her marriage to her brother, there were years of social media posts between them, pictures, police reports, a marriage and divorce license, statements from family friends, apartment leases, immigration documents, social security records, business licenses, etc etc that all contradicted her cover-up story. She went on instagram and facebook and deleted pictures people had already archived. She's not some james bond villain or xanatos giving a narration of their own devious plan, she's a moron.
The conspiracy theories that require people to simultaneously be morons and masterminds are always wrong, the ones that require people to just be morons- often right