Official Presidential Debate Thread - Topic

proccy

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#11

Sep 29 2020 01:33pm

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 29 2020 12:28pm)

For tonight, I expect a shitshow which is incredibly sad and entertaining at the same time.

I imagine most of us are going to agree on this despite disagreeing on many other things daily on these boards

Bazi

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#12

Sep 29 2020 01:33pm

Trump team needs a slaughter here

If it’s a draw or even it’s a win for biden team

ofthevoid

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#13

Sep 29 2020 01:37pm

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 29 2020 03:28pm)

Romney won the first debate against an underprepared Obama pretty decisively in 2012, and it gave his campaign new momentum. Had he won the second debate in similar fashion instead of Obama bouncing back, it might have flipped the race.
Similarly, one can argue that Gore's "invading his personal space" moment during the 2000 debate against W. Bush cost him the election.

And let's not forget that Trump was on the ropes like never before going into the 2nd debate with Hillary after the Access Hollywood tape had leaked 2 days before. There were increasing calls from active GOP establishment figures for him to drop out, or for the party to distance itself from him and give up on the presidential race. During the beginning minutes of the debate, Trump was on tilt and oh so close to having a complete meltdown and doing something unrecoverable, like punching Hillary in the face or calling her a cunt on live TV. But then, she didnt "go for the kill" and instead took a defensive approach during that debate. Afterwards, most commentators agreed that the debate itself was more or less a draw, but that Trump did successfully stop the freefall, which was a huge tactical win for him under these circumstances.

For tonight, I expect a shitshow which is incredibly sad and entertaining at the same time. If I had to guess, I would say Trump ekes out a very narrow win in the debate, which nonetheless is a tactical loss for him since he's far down in the polls and instead needs a decisive win to turn this race around.

Looked this up. Lol. Bush handled it like a boss. Little moments like these make someone likable.

InsaneBobb

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#14

Sep 29 2020 01:50pm

Quote (Bazi @ Sep 29 2020 12:33pm)

Trump team needs a slaughter here

If it’s a draw or even it’s a win for biden team

I don't honestly know if the debate will matter in either direction. If you assume polling data is correct, only some 11% of voters are undecided at this point, and those same polls indicate the majority of the undecided crowd will likely abstain or vote third party.

One or the other would have to say or do something pretty terrible to lose votes, imo.

Myself, I only intend to tune in specifically for entertainment value. It should hopefully be a wonderful mix of memeworthiness and cringe to beggar the 2016 debates.

proccy

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#15

Sep 29 2020 01:52pm

Quote (InsaneBobb @ Sep 29 2020 12:50pm)

One or the other would have to say or do something pretty terrible to lose votes, imo.

And one candidate is immune to this type of thing bizarrely but true

Thor123422

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#16

Sep 29 2020 01:55pm

Quote (InsaneBobb @ Sep 29 2020 02:50pm)

If that is the case then it's going to be very difficult for Trump to win.

Polls in 2016 were within margin of error, and they've since more heavily weighted polls in Trump's favor to make them more accurate since the error was towards Hillary in 2016. Those things taken together basically mean polls now are going to be more accurate than last time, and the error has been systemically adjusted in Trump's favor since 2016. As a result, if Trump can't swing the election more towards his favor it's very unlikely he will come out on top in November.

InsaneBobb

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#17

Sep 29 2020 02:04pm

Quote (proccy @ Sep 29 2020 12:52pm)

And one candidate is immune to this type of thing bizarrely but true

I think both candidates are immune. Good, bad, or indifferent, Biden can do no wrong, and neither can Trump. It's really one of the most bizarre election cycles I've ever seen. And regardless of the content of the debate, there's going to be 50,000 articles in the morning about how badly Biden roasted Trump, etc. etc.

Quote (Thor123422 @ Sep 29 2020 12:55pm)

Not particularly discussing polls regarding "who would you vote for". That kind of poll, I'd answer "Biden" even though there's not a snowball's chance in hell I'd actually vote Biden. Merely polls on "Do you know who you're going to vote for or are you still undecided?"

But I mean, be honest with yourself: Even if Biden comes out as a drooling mess and can't string 3 words together, isn't your mind made up? Wouldn't you vote Biden regardless, with the basic theory that Harris is a better choice than Trump? I honestly have very few doubts that this debate is virtually worthless at this point, and is only going to happen for the ratings.

Black XistenZ

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#18

Sep 29 2020 02:06pm

Quote (ofthevoid @ 29 Sep 2020 21:37)

Looked this up. Lol. Bush handled it like a boss. Little moments like these make someone likable.

Imho, this moment was less about making Bush likeable (Bush and Gore both had skyhigh net approvals in 2000 btw), it was about making Gore come across like a total dweeb.

Quote (Thor123422 @ 29 Sep 2020 21:55)

The big story of 2016 in terms of polling was that education had, for the first time ever, become one of the major cleavages in American politics. Up to that point, most pollsters hadnt weighted for education, which led to oversampling of college-educated people and undersampling of non-college folks. Given the makeup of Trump's coalition, this caused polls to miss his support by a couple of percentage points in states with a large share of non-college whites. On the flip side, it by the way caused polls to underestimate Clinton in states with a large share of non-college non-whites, like Texas or Arizona.

Since then, some pollsters have adjusted for this and weight by education, but others have deliberately not. Another aspect to keep in mind is that in 2020, Biden has made the largest inroads with senior voters, a group which traditionally leaned strongly Republican. At the same time, relative to the shift of the overall electorate, Trump has seemingly improved his position a tiny bit with voters aged 30-59, and with young minority men. There's no guarantee that the pollster adjustments made in response to 2016 will capture these trends of 2020.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 29 2020 02:07pm

thundercock

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#19

Sep 29 2020 03:01pm

Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 29 2020 12:37pm)

Looked this up. Lol. Bush handled it like a boss. Little moments like these make someone likable.

GWB is incredibly underrated and awesome. I'm probably his biggest supporter on the forum.

Black XistenZ

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#20

Sep 29 2020 03:13pm

Quote (thundercock @ 29 Sep 2020 23:01)

GWB is incredibly underrated and awesome. I'm probably his biggest supporter on the forum.

Dragged the country into a disastrous war based on blatant lies, spearheaded the erosion of civil and constitutional liberties via the Patriot Act, established torture as an unofficially-official tool to be used by the American government, passed bad tax cuts, slept into the worst genuinely economic crisis in 80 years, even the good years over which he presided saw some of the most anaemic growth ever, nominated several duds to the courts, left a lot of seats vacant out of sheer neglect, started ballooning the deficit after inheriting a balanced budget from his predecessor - what's there not to like?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 29 2020 03:23pm

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