Quote (excellence @ 4 Feb 2020 00:14)
they canceled that poll result for a reason, but i think it’s more due to unexpected poor performance by either Biden or Warren rather than good performance by Barnie
The results of that spiked Des Moines Register/CNN/Seltzer poll have been leaked an confirmed online:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-caucus-2020-election-live/Clare Malone, 7:06pm:
Quote
Nevertheless, a tweet made the rounds that night purporting to give the poll’s results, and after doing some reporting around this, FiveThirtyEight can confirm that it contains the correct final findings of the unreleased Iowa poll: Sanders 22 percent, Warren 18 percent, Buttigieg 16 percent, Biden 13 percent. Imagine the news cycle that would have been, with national front-runner Biden making such a poor showing in the last, highest-profile poll before the caucuses.
So, the theory from yesterday that some evil forces behind the curtain were holding back this poll based on a minor technical hiccup because Sanders was leading too much seems to have been off - it was done to prevent the public from knowing that Biden is cratering, lol.
He's strong in the South and the Democratic caucus electorate in Iowa tensd to be very liberal, so he certainly doesnt need to finish first or even second in Iowa to see his chances at the nomination intact - but finishing in 4th place with an abysmal 13% would probably sink his entire campaign. Even more so since 13% Iowa-wide would mean that he will be below the 15% viability threshold in a ton of precincts, so his SDEs would be even lower than 13%.
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