There can be no doubt that this was not a fully "free and fair" election, but that it also wasn't a completely illegitimate sham election either. Chances are that the Georgian Dream would have ended up somewhere around 46-50% without vote buying, intimidation etc. However, the relevant opposition parties which cleared the electoral threshold and gained representation in parliament only add up to 38% of the vote. Hence, chances are high that the Georgian Dream would have gained a parliamentary majority even under fair circumstances.

In any case, this election offers no reason to believe that there is widespread majority support for an aggressively pro-EU course in Georgia. The president stoking protests and demonstrations is reckless and will lead to nothing good.


Ferdia is right that the situation in Georgia is politically similar to Ukraine in that you have a country which is sharply divided between pro-EU and pro-Russian sides which are about equal in size/strength.
The key difference I see is that the political division in Ukraine fell along much clearer geographic lines, so that a split of the country was feasible and will be the end result of that war, no matter how murky and costly the way of getting there is.
In Georgia, I don't see a similar "solution". May cooler heads prevail.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 30 2024 07:43am