Quote (thesnipa @ May 7 2024 09:12am)
sure, but that's not what i said. take any mechanic's shop, what is 75% of their business? general maintenance. oil changes, tire rotations and changes, air filter changes, headlight changes, etc.
that stuff is all fairly easy to automate, i mean we have Tesla's currently reading the world and driving in dynamic 3-d world. cars aren't nearly as dynamic, make/model/year all have x-y-z coordinates you can program around.
the point being what happens to a mechanic's shop with 10 employees when 75% of the business is removed, or even 25%? well 2-3 guys are let go at first, then eventually it's 2-3 people doing highly specialized work, maybe by that time with a robot that can tell them the issue much faster.
like i said i'd be shocked if by 2034 you can't program an appointment on the app, drive into a stall, be lifted up and receive an oil change and tire change that takes 15 mins.
I've worked at new car dealers since the 90s. 75% of the repair orders generated might be basic stuff, but it's performed by 10% of the labor expended. Most of the work performed is "check engine light is on, please diagnose, perform recall XXX, replace brakes, check oil leak" and the like. Even air filter and bulb replacements aren't going to happen without some kind of Will Smith iRobot. What happens when you get a rotate job with lug nuts with swollen caps?