https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-6046-de2d-a57f-7a6e8c950000

This was done using exit polling data in 10 battleground states: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI.

•Despite turnout for both state groups being MORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lost ground in both groups largely due to a massive swing against POTUS among Indies in both state groups and more GOP ‘leakage’ in “Flipped” states.
•Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in both groups, while his performance among Blacks was virtually the same as 2016.
•POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost the most with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “Flipped” states. Worse was the double-digit erosion he suffered with White College educated voters across the board.
•Voters who did not vote in ’16 but voted in ’20 accounted for roughly 1-in-6 voters and they broke markedly for Biden, especially in the “Flipped” states. 1-in-10 voters say they decided their vote in the final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they broke in Biden’s favor in both state groups.
•While Biden’s image was underwater in both state groups, POTUS’s was more so in the “Flipped” states, while he was a net positive in the “Held” states.
•VPOTUS held a marked image advantage over Harris in both state groups where his image was net positive. Harris’s image was worse than Biden’s in both state groups.
•While a majority of voters said they didn’t find either Presidential candidate honest or trustworthy, Biden held a double-digit advantage over POTUS, especially in the “Flipped” states.
•POTUS’s overall job approval was mixed with a majority of voters in the “Flipped” states disapproving while voters in the “Held” states were split down the middle. However, POTUS earned negative marks on handling of Coronavirus (CV) in both groups, particularly in flipped states.
•Conversely, Fauci garnered nearly a 3 to 1 positive job approval on handling of CV overall with Fauci detractors voting overwhelmingly for POTUS while Fauci supporters voted for Biden by wide margins, especially in “Flipped” states.
•Coronavirus (CV) was the top issue in both state groups –more so in “Flipped” states –and Biden carried those voters nearly 3 to 1. The economy ranked second and POTUS crushed Biden with those voters by a 6 to 1 or better margin.
•Voters in “Flipped” states somewhat more negative about the economy than in “Held” states, and voters in “Held” states more likely to choose POTUS to handle the economy.
•While majorities of voters in both state groups prioritized stopping the spread of CV over re-opening the economy, the majority was markedly larger in “Flipped” states. And pluralities in both groups picked Biden as best able to handle CV, not surprisingly by a larger margin in the “Flipped” states.
•State groups were split on whether or not CV was under control with a slight majority of “Flipped” state voters saying no and a majority of “Held” saying yes. And voters were highly polarized based on these positions with voters who say it is under control voting overwhelmingly for POTUS and those who say it isn’t voting overwhelmingly for Biden regardless of state group.
•Three-quarters of voters in both state groups favored public mask mandates. Not surprisingly those who opposed them voted overwhelmingly for POTUS with those who favored them supporting Biden, particularly those in the “Flipped” states.
•9-in-10 voters in both groups said that SCOTUS was a factor in deciding their vote. Ironically, those who said it was a factor voted for Biden in both state groups while those who said it wasn’t a factor voted for POTUS by large margins.

This post was edited by thundercock on Feb 2 2021 01:44am

Interesting data. Seems to further the opinion that if Trump had handled Covid better that he likely would have won in 2020.

It's certainly possible and I'd venture to say likely. One argument that I heard against it is that the Democrats hamstrung themselves by not having a ground game. I think the real question is if either side can retain the inconsistent voter. My hypothesis is that high turnout elections (i.e. Obama 2008) are not sustainable and it's better to convert people as opposed to getting them to turnout. Basically, for every convert, you need to recruit 2 inconsistent voters to break even.

I would agree with your hypothesis. I do wonder if Trump's legacy will be to fracture the Republican party. It's almost as though I wonder if it would be harder to convert a Democrat to vote Republican or to have a devout Trump supporter vote Republican in the next election.

so white karens of all genders got mad and turned out more for Biden, the avowed segregationist. we didn’t need a deep dive study for this.

I think Trump did...

Economy (Not Wallstreet, they are correlated but not causative) was in the shitter.

Bad handling of the virus. If he was captain serious from the beginning it wouldn't be such a stain on his legacy.


Foreign relations with historical allies were being strained


Rampant cronyism


Unilateral military action.

The bizzare and tyrannical situation where he made the secret service and DC police fuck up protestors so he could get a Bible photo


All of the above factored into my decision as an independent to not opt to vote for trumps second term.

This post was edited by kclla on Feb 2 2021 02:16am

Not really. We knew from exit polling that Trump lost among white voters. He either held ground or gained ground among all other demographics.

Biden literally won based on white voters. He's "whitey's choice". No lie, and nothing about this topic is new. We knew most of it a couple months ago.

Trump thinks he won the election. That was the joke.

Never got his day in court either way, so it doesn't really matter what he thinks, does it?