Quote (fender @ Jan 27 2021 09:04am)

i don't know how closely some of you have been following putin's attempts to silence (arrest / de-platform / murder) one of his harshest critics, alexei navalny. it's an (uneven) battle that has been going on for almost a decade now, culminating in a novichock poisoning (of which navalny was able to get his would be assassin, an FSB state agent to admit and detail it on record), which navalny barely survived:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55395683
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibqiet6Bg38

upon his return to russia (he was treated in a german hospital), he was immediately arrested on bogus charges again - but he released this video to destroy some of the myths and legends around one of the most powerful men in the world, encouraging his fellow countrymen, as well as the rest of the world (subtitles are available), to stand up against the murderous authoritarian putin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI

the saga sparked massive protests in russia, which putin cracked down on hard, arresting thousands.

i'm wondering what pard (well, everyone here who hasn't subscribed to trump's apologism regarding putin "you think we're so innocent?" / "i believe putin"...) thinks about this. is it a serious threat to putin's power? will navalny's rather substantial following be able to establish itself as proper political opposition? some experts on the matter seem to believe that navalny's smart use of social media, his meticulous campaign to destroy the personality cult around putin, in combination with years of negligible economic progress (amplified by covid-19 ofc), might be the perfect storm necessary to oust someone like putin.

personally i'm still rather pessimistic. upon his (imo inevitable untimely) death, navalny's movement would lose a rather charismatic leader and probably a lot of momentum. putin is not shy about mass arrests, media censorship, and even outright assassinations. he still has a massive devout following of people who give him credit for creating a certain level of economic prosperity after the destitute times of the soviet collapse, who are brainwashed by decades of propaganda through state media, as well as a political system thoroughly rigged in his favour, with loyal putinists in basically all key positions, behind him. there's hope though. i'd be happy for the russian people if they could finally free themselves from his greedy little paws.

Quote (ofthevoid @ 27 Jan 2021 16:38)

If Putin really wanted the guy dead he'd be dead.

The fact of the matter is that most Russians still support Putin so he most likely won't be going anywhere. More importantly, the Russian oligarchs back him so it's a fantasy that Putin will somehow be kicked out of power in the short-medium term.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 27 Jan 2021 17:07)

I'm sceptical that the current wave of protests will really be able to oust Putin, but it can erode his power base and make "the system Putin" prone for a collapse further down the road.

The big problem you imho overlook is that there is still a very large nationalistic majority in Russia. Even if he was chosen in a truly free and fair election, Putin's successor would most definitely be an ultranationalist hardliner, not a liberal (small-d) democrat in the Western sense.

Quote (fender @ 27 Jan 2021 17:51)

you're not wrong, but i think you're overstating it a bit though. i addressed the fact that putin has a huge 'genuine' following (the part about his credit with those that experienced the collapse of the soviet union, his popularity thanks to state propaganda), and admittedly left out the nationalist angle he constantly panders to, his strong man act, the constant sabre rattling, his ukraine and syria power plays, projecting soviet ambitions... those things are undeniably popular with a substantial part of the russian population. they can't hide the precarious economic situation russia finds itself in though, the lack of progress in the last couple of years, and the rampant corruption that even state propaganda isn't able to fully cover up these days. those issues have severely disillusioned a significant portion of russians.

Quote (fender @ Jan 27 2021 04:04pm)

i don't know how closely some of you have been following putin's attempts to silence (arrest / de-platform / murder) one of his harshest critics, alexei navalny. it's an (uneven) battle that has been going on for almost a decade now, culminating in a novichock poisoning (of which navalny was able to get his would be assassin, an FSB state agent to admit and detail it on record), which navalny barely survived:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55395683
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibqiet6Bg38

upon his return to russia (he was treated in a german hospital), he was immediately arrested on bogus charges again - but he released this video to destroy some of the myths and legends around one of the most powerful men in the world, encouraging his fellow countrymen, as well as the rest of the world (subtitles are available), to stand up against the murderous authoritarian putin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI

the saga sparked massive protests in russia, which putin cracked down on hard, arresting thousands.

i'm wondering what pard (well, everyone here who hasn't subscribed to trump's apologism regarding putin "you think we're so innocent?" / "i believe putin"...) thinks about this. is it a serious threat to putin's power? will navalny's rather substantial following be able to establish itself as proper political opposition? some experts on the matter seem to believe that navalny's smart use of social media, his meticulous campaign to destroy the personality cult around putin, in combination with years of negligible economic progress (amplified by covid-19 ofc), might be the perfect storm necessary to oust someone like putin.

personally i'm still rather pessimistic. upon his (imo inevitable untimely) death, navalny's movement would lose a rather charismatic leader and probably a lot of momentum. putin is not shy about mass arrests, media censorship, and even outright assassinations. he still has a massive devout following of people who give him credit for creating a certain level of economic prosperity after the destitute times of the soviet collapse, who are brainwashed by decades of propaganda through state media, as well as a political system thoroughly rigged in his favour, with loyal putinists in basically all key positions, behind him. there's hope though. i'd be happy for the russian people if they could finally free themselves from his greedy little paws.

Quote (Djunior @ 27 Jan 2021 19:42)

I guess EU is getting desperate, now hoping putin somehow disappears so that they can continue their expansion East, Ukraine being the prime target