Quote (bogie160 @ May 30 2014 04:48pm)
They were facing a complete wipeout, no it looks like it will be a moderate republican victory. If, as seems likely, the Senate stays democratic the political dynamic wont be significantly changed through 2016.
Well, no, they weren't facing a wipeout whatsoever. People at the beginning of the year were just getting caught up in outdated conventional wisdom and the always-false "Democrats are doomed!" meme that is perpetuated by lazy media personalities. People were buying into the fantasy that Democratic Senate seats in VA/NH/MN/OR and to a lesser extent MI/CO were going to be competitive. Unsurprisingly the first four aren't even close and the latter two are still uphill climbs for the GOP. Now that people understand that better the analyses are coming back to reality a little bit. The Democrats can also be cautiously optimistic that their star recruits in KY/GA are leading, and a third star recruit in MS might be able to compete if Thad Cochran goes down on Tuesday to his wingnut primary challenger.
People are also having to face the facts regarding gerrymandering in the House, too. It doesn't matter how favorable of a year the GOP could have (and this ism't, fundamentals are near break-even) they can't win a lot of seats. There just aren't that many left as a result of their gerrymandering. In creating their now-artificial majority they reduced their playing field: they can really only compete in the seats they lost in 2012 and where they barely lost. Even if they won them all it wouldn't amount to a big gain, and not only will they not win them all but they'll lose most of them.
Quote (thundercock @ May 30 2014 04:50pm)
The range of Republican gains has narrowed which may be indicative of more certainty in the House and Senate cases. I wonder why the gubernatorial races have opened up
The ranges narrowed for different reasons. In the House, Democrats opted not to contest seats in Florida because it looks like the GOP's unconstitutional gerrymander is about to get thrown out in time for new (fair) district lines in 2016. That will all but give Democrats 2-5 seats next cycle without much of a fight, hence the pause in 2014. They are also getting help in some GOP seats: a conservative 3rd party challenger in NE-02 that will attack Rep. Terry from the right makes that swingy seat even more competitive, and the GOP won't be able to get scandal-tarred Rep. Grimm off the ballot in NY-11.
The range narrowed in the Senate because of the dynamic mentioned earlier where outdated conventional wisdom got smashed, but also because red-state Democrats are overperforming. People were too quick to write off Pryor in AR but he is now leading. People thought Begich wouldn't be able to hold a lead in AK due to its red tint but he's still leading and he'll have ballot measures in November that'll help him. The Democratic challengers in KY/GA are leading. Kay Hagan has faced about $15 million in outside money attack ads and is still in a virtual tie. A four-way (now three-way) contest in SD kept the GOP from being able to put that state away, and the margin is tightening in WV.
Things have become more optimistic for Democrats in the Governors races because new targets have popped up. People thought Paul Davis could never compete long-term in KS but it's neck-and-neck. Jason Carter is within the M.O.E. against Nathan Deal in GA, as is Vince Sheheen with Nikki Haley in SC and Mary Burke with Scott Walker in WI. MI and OH will be close either way. When you factor all that in with where the Democrats already lead (PA/FL/ME) you get a Democratic edge. The party only has 3 seats that are concerning: AR where they will likely lose, and IL and CT where incumbents are not popular but where the tilt of the state is also in the party's favor.