Kamala is a marginal improvement for Demcorats' chances. Yes, she's awful, yes, she's tied to the track record of the Biden/Harris administration. But she can at least read off a teleprompter and campaign hard. And she is able to more credibly promise a pivot on certain policy, say Israel/Hamas. At this point, considering the pitiful state of Biden, she will have an easier time energizing the Dem base than him. And she has a higher chance of making use of the massive tailwind the MSM will undoubtedly give her.
The thing with her, however, is that she appeals to a different set of voters than Biden. Her base are rich suburban women, but I don't see her appealing to white working-class voters at all - a demo with which Biden was holding up surprisingly well.
So with the switcheroo, I would say that the likelihood of a popular vote/electoral college split has gone up. As did the chance for Dems to flip the House. On the other hand, the chance for Democrats to hold the Senate imho go down with her at the top of the ticket. From a strategic point of view, I would actually rate this as an improvement for Democrats as it (imho) decreases the likelihood of a Trump presidency with a trifecta.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 21 2024 07:33pm