Quote (KillersDream @ 13 Nov 2009 00:10)

Quote (Shodokan @ Nov 12 2009 11:56pm)

I'm not 100% sure that you don't know me, but to be honest not many these days do.

If you do know me then you'd know of my accomplishments, what i've worked on with whom and what was done.  As far as spreading rumors and lies, everyone lies at one point or another but that's not the point here is it?  The things i did if i wanted attention would be hosting private servers... not lying about some new method or whatever.  In fact i didn't talk about methods i was working on or explain them to anyone except a select few people.  And people like SNARG ruined that for the community by posting things that were said in confidence between friends (atleast at the time)

Yes i'm aware that bugged games have not allowed the integration between open and closed battle.net characters after the re-working of their structure and only the ability to have ladder and non-ladder characters allowed to join the same game, in a sense this is importing but not to the degree we are discussing.

I'm not exactly on a high horse, i' guess you could put it that way but i'm simply saying that the mathematical odds of something like that being found are incredibly unlikely and if you did find it or someone else did and you got your hands on it then congrats.  But if it was by other means then having something like that means nothing really, at least in my opinion.



For those of you who are not aware... the math behind this spawning is something along the lines of

[[(1/50)(1/49)(1/48)]^2](1/30)(1/29)(1/28)[(1/3)^3] (5/100)

Approximately

.0000000000000000001893049692

That's only of rare seraph rods...so it's actually much higher.

So the actual odds of just a seraph rod spawning with this exact staffmods and exact prefix/suffix choices is

1 in 5,282,481,510,000,000,000

So basically 1 in 5 quintillion chance...

You have a better chance of winning the lottery than finding this...and that isn't even with the specific mods (299% damage, etc)

Quote (-=vasya=- @ Nov 12 2009 06:18pm)

what if i buy 1000 lotery tickets every day for 5 years

what are  my chances of winning it ?

Quote (thesnipa @ Nov 12 2009 06:21pm)

if you are speaking about a daily draw lottery it would go like this:

each day lets assume 1 million tickets are sold

u buy 1000

thats gives you a 1000/1,000,000 chance of winning

1/1000

but because the lottery restets each day and we must assume the number of people that buy tickets is somewhat constant you have the same odds each day

so 1/1000 for 365 days, should still be 1/1000

the fact is that much more than 1 million tickets are sold

and that the lottery doesnt reset each day making it even harder to win as the pool grows larger

Quote (KillersDream @ Nov 12 2009 06:22pm)

(1/1000) * (365 * 5) = 1.825 times you'll win on average every 5 years

Quote (thesnipa @ Nov 12 2009 06:25pm)

the numbers i posted were "nice" to explain the stats

clearly there are more than 1 million tickets sold so 1000 tickets would not win 1.8 times in 5 years

and the fact that the lotto only resets approx once a week depending on your region means that the tickets from office polls, rednecks, and welfare junkies make it strikingly impossible to win even with 1000 tickets a day

Quote (KillersDream @ Nov 12 2009 06:26pm)

you gave the impression that the odds were still just 1/1000 of winning the lotto over 365 days, when in reality it would be 365/1000

Quote (thesnipa @ Nov 12 2009 06:33pm)

how do you like the odds of this scepter dropping?

Quote (KillersDream @ Nov 13 2009 02:44am)

The odds posted earlier were incorrect. I'm not trying to say that this scepter is as common as your ear after you leave a duel game, but then again nothing else is that common.