Rip

The cupboard was close to bare when GM Mike Hazen took over, but a few prospects he inherited took steps forward last year, and the team added a lot of talent with the new regime's first draft class and a big splash on the international market.

1. Jon Duplantier, RHP (ranked No. 64)
2. Pavin Smith, 1B (ranked No. 92)
3. Jasrado Chisholm, SS
4. Marcus Wilson, OF
5. Taylor Clarke, RHP
6. Drew Ellis, 3B
7. Anthony Banda, LHP
8. Daulton Varsho, C
9. Cody Reed, LHP
10. Kristian Robinson, OF

Non-top 100 prospects

The Bahamian-born Jasrado Chisholm played in just 29 games for low-A Kane County before tearing the meniscus in his knee, requiring surgery that ended his season. He did return for Arizona's Dominican instructional league and was running and fielding at 100 percent. His tools remain unchanged, with strong hands and plus bat speed, projecting to hit -- and hit with power -- and will probably move to second base in the long term. Marcus Wilson was the team's second-round pick in 2014 out of the same high school that produced Mets first baseman Dom Smith, and followed his modest breakout in 2016 with an excellent full-season debut for Kane County, hitting .295/.383/.446 at age 20. He has drawn walks at a solid clip, but this year improved his overall approach and started to make better contact, growing into some of the power projected for him in high school. He can play center and is a plus defender in left.

Taylor Clarke, the D-backs' third-round pick in 2015, reached Triple-A last summer and continued to miss bats, working at 92-94 now from a high three-quarter slot and using his changeup more effectively. He's a strong fly-ball pitcher, though, which might not be a great fit in Phoenix or even in Reno. Drew Ellis -- no relation to Michael -- was their second-round pick in 2017, a third baseman for the University of Louisville who has pull power and can turn on a fastball, swinging early in the count with rough footwork at the hot corner. He may end up at first base. Anthony Banda was their No. 1 prospect last winter, when they didn't place anyone on the top 100, and saw his velocity improve but his performance drop, especially when he had to pitch from the stretch, a problem that continued in his brief major league time. He still has the mix and control to be a starter, but if you can't keep the ball in the yard with men on base, that's going to be a problem in any role.

Daulton Varsho earned very mixed reviews last spring from area scouts, but the Diamondbacks loved what they saw from the son of former big-league outfielder Gary and took Daulton with the 68th overall pick. He's a plus runner with quick actions, a solid receiver behind the plate with a 45 arm but a fast release, and has a good eye at the plate with some power. He may not stay a catcher long-term, but the power/speed combination is intriguing. Cody Reed returned healthy after he missed the last half of 2016 with shoulder soreness, dominating low-A and missing bats in high-A but becoming homer-prone in the Cal League, especially at home, even though Visalia's ballpark isn't one of that league's extreme hitting environments. He works with average-ish stuff and has some deception, but his command needs to be finer for him to profile as a big-league starter, and he will have to continue to improve his changeup to get right-handed batters out.

Kristian Robinson signed for $2.55 million in July, another Bahamian prospect, and is a physical monster with plus speed and plus raw power along with a simple swing that should let him make plenty of contact ... but he hasn't played in games yet to give anyone a sense of his patience or pitch recognition.

Socrates Brito (11) dislocated a finger in spring training and missed about seven weeks to start the Triple-A season, still flashing some of the power and speed but not putting it together enough at the plate to profile as more than an extra outfielder. Right-hander Matt Tabor (12) was their third-round pick, a prep arm out of Massachusetts who has size and velocity, up to 95 as a starter with a good changeup. His arm is late in his delivery and he lands on his heel, while he needs to develop a viable breaking ball.

Andy Yerzy (13) showed progress in his receiving last year as an 18-year-old in the Pioneer League, but it was his power output that gained him attention -- he hit 13 homers in 54 games, tying for sixth in the league, after hitting just one homer in his pro debut in 2016. Brazilian outfielder Gabriel Maciel (14) shows above-average speed and defense in center, with good bat-to-ball skills, projecting to hit for average but not much power, with a good leadoff hitter profile if he continues to show he can get on base (.389 last year, 14th in the Pioneer League at age 18). He's further along as a hitter than Eduardo Diaz (15), who can also play center with above-average speed, but has a big frame that should lead to more power as he fills out while also increasing the likelihood he moves to a corner.

Jose Almonte (16) punched out 26 percent of opposing batters in the high-A Cal League last year despite pitching with average stuff, so scouts are skeptical of him as a long-term starter. Lefty Jared Miller (17) looks like a solid setup man, if not more, as a three-pitch guy who can get hitters on both sides out. Right-hander Jimmy Sherfy is a fastball/curveball guy who lacks a pitch to make him more than a specialist. Shortstop Domingo Leyba played in just 23 games due to shoulder surgery and might miss the start of 2018, so we'll have to see how he looks when he's back on the field and throwing again.

2018 impact: Anthony Banda might get another crack at the rotation and Jimmy Sherfy should appear in the bullpen for much of the year. Socrates Brito would be a solid fourth outfielder if he's healthy.

Sleeper: It's still Jasrado Chisholm, who was my sleeper last year but didn't play enough to justify bumping him up the rankings just yet.

The fallen: Outfielder Anfernee Grier was their top pick, 39th overall, in 2016, out of Auburn University, but brought concerns about his ability to pick up breaking stuff; he hit just .251/.340/.331 in low-A at 21 and is looking like an extra outfielder or up-and-down guy.

Colorado Rockies
Riley Pint, who the Rockies made the fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft, shows off a right arm that can reach triple digits. AP Photo/David Zalubowski

A system full of teams playing in hitters' parks can skew impressions of players -- the hitters look better than they are, the pitchers look worse -- and the Rockies also had miserable luck last year with injuries to pitchers and position players alike.

1. Brendan Rodgers, SS (ranked No. 29)
2. Ryan McMahon, 1B (ranked No. 31)
3. Peter Lambert, RHP (ranked No. 63)
4. Riley Pint, RHP
5. Ryan Vilade, SS
6. Tyler Nevin, 1B/3B
7. Colton Welker, 3B
8. Ryan Castellani, RHP
9. Will Gaddis, RHP
10. Garrett Hampson, 2B

Non-top 100 prospects

Riley Pint was the fourth overall pick in 2016 and went to low-A Asheville in his first full year out, where he did Riley Pint things, like hitting 100 mph as a starter, walking too many guys (almost 14 percent), and not missing enough bats (18.2 percent). He's athletic, blessed with a golden arm, and still is a sort of lottery ticket, in search of a consistent breaking ball or even fringe-average command. He just turned 20 in November and has time to get there, but there's a substantial probability he either ends up a reliever or never gets to the majors at all.

Ryan Vilade was their first pick in 2017 after they gave up their first-round pick for Ian Desmond, and had a tremendous debut in 33 games in the advanced-rookie Pioneer League, hitting .308/.438/.496, even doing more on the road than he did in hitter-friendly Grand Junction. It was a small sample, but still impressive for an 18-year-old straight out of high school. He's a smart player with good feel on both sides of the ball, an average runner or a tick better, probably not a shortstop in the long term but with the projected average/OBP skills to profile as a regular anywhere.

Tyler Nevin had all of one at-bat in 2016 around a hamstring injury he reaggravated when he doubled, so getting into 82 games last year makes for real progress, although he was slowed by a wrist injury midseason. He did hit .336/.381/.523 after his DL stint with a high contact rate, and shows a real ability to use the opposite field. He has played first and third, and could go to a corner outfield spot as well; there should be above-average power in here as well to help him profile at any of those spots.

Colton Welker missed about half of last year with a back injury, continued to hit (boosted by a good home park), with mixed reviews on his defense and body type; if he stays healthy and keeps producing at the plate, that latter part won't matter much. Ryan Castellani can touch 94 and sits 90-91 with a hard mid-80s slider, with command above-average in some starts and below in others. He extends well over his front side when his delivery is "right," but can get underneath the ball at times, which is when he gets hit. His changeup is below average now, too close to his fastball in velocity without the action that might help him fool left-handed hitters. He has fourth-starter potential, with a specialist-reliever floor.

Will Gaddis was the team's third-round pick in 2017 out of Furman, and the right-hander shows plus control of a fastball-cutter-curveball mix. He has a changeup but it is still a below-average pitch, and developing that will be key to keeping him a starter, with league-average upside if he gets there. Garrett Hampson is a plus runner with good instincts, lacking power and probably needing to develop more hand strength, but has a good idea at the plate and should be an above-average defender at second who is always a candidate to move to center for his speed.

Catcher Tom Murphy (11) missed two months with a hairline fracture in his forearm and ended up in only 50 games last year, continuing an unfortunate history of injuries (including a shoulder problem that wrecked his 2014 season). He didn't hit well when healthy, although his strength in the affected arm was probably down. He'll turn 27 in April and already has a year of service time, mostly from DL stints, with just 103 major league at-bats ... and yet he's still something as a prospect because he's a catcher with power. Just don't forget about him.

Outfielder Sam Hilliard (12) struck out 154 times in high-A at age 23 last year, but he does have tools -- 6 raw power, 6 run, 6 arm, average defense in right -- and he's got size, so while the 26 percent strikeout rate is too high for his age and level, he does have the upside of an above-average big-leaguer if he cuts it down just enough to project as a .250-ish hitter for average.

The Rockies gave $2 million to Venezuelan outfielder Daniel Montano (13) in 2015, and he had a solid summer in the Dominican last year, probably leading to a U.S. debut in 2018. He has good feel to hit, with a line-drive swing that should produce doubles power, while his eventual position is up in the air between center and left field. Right-hander Yency Almonte (14) is a fastball/slider guy up to 96 without much life on the pitch, most likely a reliever in the long run. Breiling Eusebio (15) had a brief stint as a starter for low-A Asheville at age 20 last year; the southpaw is a two-pitch guy right now, fastball/curveball, effective against left-handed batters but needing a viable changeup to stay a starter.

Second baseman Forrest Wall (16) injured his left shoulder diving for a ball, requiring surgery that ended his season. He has speed and some feel to hit, but has been bedeviled by injuries all the way back to his senior year of high school. Right-hander Pearson McMahan (17) was their fourth-round pick in 2017, up to 93-94 as a starter with a power slider, a project arm who has stuff but not command or control. Southpaw Nick Kennedy (18), their fifth-rounder, is also up to 94 and has a solid curveball, but needs to show he has the third pitch to get right-handers out to remain a starter. Lefty Ben Bowden missed the year with a bulging disc in his back; he projects as a middle reliever when healthy.

2018 impact: Ryan McMahon should be their first baseman this year; he's got nothing left to prove or learn in the minors, and the Rockies don't have an incumbent at the position.

Sleeper: Ryan Vilade is very exciting because his bat might be as advanced as advertised, and he seems athletic enough to be above-average at second or third unless he outgrows the infield completely.

The fallen: Mike Nikorak (27th overall pick, 2015) had Tommy John surgery and should be back in 2018, while Robert Tyler (38th overall, 2016) missed all of 2017 with a shoulder injury. Both had trouble throwing strikes before their injuries, so there's at least hope their control will improve once they're fully recovered.

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Feb 22 2018 06:18pm

Los Angeles Dodgers
Edwin Rios can hit, but with Cody Bellinger locked in at first base, there's no place for him in the field in L.A. -- for now. Tim Warner/Getty Images

The Dodgers' system remains strong if slightly shallower than it has been in recent years, as they've promoted several superstar prospects and traded some of that depth to fuel playoff runs.

1. Walker Buehler, RHP (ranked No. 12)
2. Alex Verdugo, OF (ranked No. 36)
3. Yadier Alvarez, RHP (ranked No. 52)
4. Keibert Ruiz, C (ranked No. 97)
5. Yusniel Diaz, OF
6. Mitch White, RHP
7. DJ Peters, OF
8. Edwin Rios, 1B
9. Gavin Lux, SS
10. Will Smith, C

Non-top 100 prospects

Yusniel Diaz started slowly, but in mid-May the Dodgers' player development staff gave him a little leg lift to help keep him more closed at the plate, after which he took off, hitting .308/.357/.495 the rest of the season. He has played all three outfield spots, is capable in center but is not a regular there, and as a right or left fielder his bat makes him either an average regular or an above-average one, but not a star. He was somewhere in the 101-120 range for me. I saw Mitch White throw lights-out in spring training, 95-97 with a hammer curve and slider, but after he returned from a foot injury his stuff and command were both down, adding to a history of durability problems that kept him off my top 100 more than anything else. He needs to show he can bring plus stuff every time out and still make 25 starts a year.

Everyone compares DJ Peters to Jayson Werth for their physical resemblance and combination of power and athleticism, although Peters doesn't have Werth's eye or pure bat-to-ball skills. He was second in all of minor league baseball with 189 strikeouts last year, but when he put the ball in play, stuff happened, with a .276/.372/.514 line that put him in the top 10 in the Cal League in doubles (eighth), homers (third) and walks (second). His swing is long and contact might always be an issue, so he's going to have to find a way to keep the strikeout rate from rising as he faces better pitching.

Edwin Rios has done nothing but hit in two-plus years since the Dodgers took him in the sixth round in 2015 out of FIU; he hit .309/.362/.533 last year between Double-A and Triple-A, has all-fields power, posts good exit velocities, and is hopelessly blocked at first base in L.A. by Cody Bellinger. He has played third in the minors but first is his ideal spot. He looks like a future regular. Gavin Lux, the team's first-round pick in 2016, had a solid full-season debut, going to low-A at 19 and showing some plate discipline, improving as the season went on as he adjusted to better velocity. He's got a chance to be average or better at shortstop and would be plus at second. The biggest hurdle for him seems to be left-handed pitching, as he probably didn't see any quality southpaws as a Wisconsin high schooler. Will Smith is a plus framer and throwing catcher who puts the ball in play a lot but doesn't project to hit for any power or much average, a high-floor guy who should be a very good backup, with a non-zero chance to be a regular if he surprises with the bat.

Starling Heredia (11) tore apart two short-season leagues (.427/.492/.764) and ended 2017 in the low-A Midwest League as an 18-year-old, showing why the Dodgers gave him $2.6 million back in July of 2015. He's a bit stocky but can run solid-average and has obvious power with a plus arm, playing mostly corners in 2017 and probably ending up in right. The hit tool will determine his future, as he has the secondary tools; he was overmatched in Great Lakes but was so young for the league it doesn't seem worth worrying about.

Jeren Kendall (12) was the Dodgers' first-round pick in 2017, with 70 speed, plus power, above-average or better defense in center, and a disastrous swing that requires an overhaul if he's ever going to hit. It was a lottery ticket selection -- if he develops a real swing that uses his lower half and that he can repeat, he will be a star, but there's a good chance he never gets to the majors, too. Dustin May (13) is very athletic with a loose arm, 91-95 with good life up in the zone and a hard tilting slider at 85-86; the Dodgers have cleaned up his delivery a little bit, although he can still land stiffly, and his changeup is a work in progress. He has grade 80 hair, though.

The Dodgers took catcher Connor Wong (14) in the third round out of the University of Houston because he's a good framer with bat-to-ball skills and at least an average arm. He's a little undersized for a catcher, so amateur scouts worried about his durability behind the plate. Right-hander Dennis Santana (15) is 94-96 with a slider up to 90 where he drops down a little to create more angle, pitching well as a starter through Double-A but running into more trouble with lefties due to his arm slot and lack of a viable third pitch. He projects as a right-on-right reliever.

Right-hander Jordan Sheffield (16), brother of Yankees lefty Justus, was a fastball/changeup guy in college, but lefties killed him this year, .285/.375/.448 in low-A and then .368/.395/.442 in five outings in high-A, and he didn't throw enough strikes overall. He's athletic and competitive, but he's also 5-foot-10 and has already had TJ surgery, so there's a lot of bullpen potential here with the poor first-year performance.

Caleb Ferguson (17) was a holdover from the previous regime, in Logan White's last draft for the Dodgers; they took him in the 38th round out of an Ohio high school after he'd had Tommy John surgery, and he posted an 8.59 ERA with 21 walks in 14 innings the following summer in his pro debut. Last year, the Dodgers jumped him from short-season to high-A Rancho Cucamonga and he broke out, touching 96 and sitting 92-93 with some sink, while striking out more than a quarter of the guys he faced. He improved as the season went on and had three straight 10-strikeout games in August, killing lefties with an above-average curveball.

Omar Estevez (18) is still young but hasn't hit yet since signing for $6 million in 2015; the Cuban middle infielder will turn 20 in February, but other than a solid contact rate he was disappointing in high-A last year. Right-hander James Marinan (19) was in the low 90s most of the spring but ticked up to 97 close to the draft and the Dodgers popped him in the fourth round; he'll show an above-average curveball, has a changeup, but is still fairly raw as a pitcher and doesn't have much present command. Drew Jackson (20) might get some big-league time as a backup infielder who can handle shortstop and run but doesn't project to hit.

2018 impact: Walker Buehler is a starter long-term despite his relief stint in the majors in September, and with all of the injury problems the Dodgers' current starters have had, he should get an opportunity to join the rotation this year. Rios is blocked, but if Bellinger were to get hurt, he'd be ready to fill in. Alex Verdugo is also ready but blocked at all three outfield spots, at least for now.

Sleeper: If White is healthy and does what I saw him do for even ¾ of a season, he's an easy mid top-100 guy. If you want someone further away, Starling Heredia is pretty fascinating given what he showed last summer at 18.

The fallen: The Dodgers gave Mitchell Hansen just under $1 million to buy him out of a Stanford commitment in 2015, but his full-season debut last year at age 21 -- old for low-A -- was awful (.198/.288/.312) and he's limited to left field or first base.

San Diego Padres

You might want to fix yourself a snack before you sit down to read this team report. Maybe get a lovely beverage. Hit the bathroom first, just in case. You're going to be here for a while.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS (ranked No. 3)
2. MacKenzie Gore, LHP (ranked No. 14)
3. Luis Urias, SS/2B (ranked No. 38)
4. Michel Baez, RHP (ranked No. 51)
5. Adrian Morejon, LHP (ranked No. 72)
6. Cal Quantrill, RHP (ranked No. 81)
7. Logan Allen, LHP (ranked No. 89)
8. Eric Lauer, LHP
9. Jorge Oña, OF
10. Anderson Espinoza, RHP

Non-top 100 prospects

Eric Lauer is a four-pitch lefty with above-average control and average command, killing left-handed batters last year at two levels, becoming a bit vulnerable to right-handed power after he got to Double-A. All 10 homers he allowed last year were to right-handers, six of those coming after his promotion at the end of June. He comes a little across his body, which makes him deceptive against left-handed batters but might be part of the issue he had last year with righties, and cross-body guys do have some added injury concerns. He looks like a likely fourth starter who could see the majors as soon as this summer.

Jorge Oña signed as a free agent for $7 million in 2016, then made his debut last year at age 20 in low-A Fort Wayne, hitting .277/.351/.405 but playing the field less as the season went on due to a sore shoulder. He also seemed to tire out in August, but his swing still looked good and he showed some feel for working the count. There's enough here to be optimistic he'll still end up a regular, maybe an above-average one, in right field.

Anderson Espinoza was a high top 100 prospect but missed all of last year with an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery; he probably won't be back until instructional league. Even in spring training last year, Espinoza was 94-98 with good life down in the zone and a pretty easy delivery, showing a curveball and changeup, with just a little cutoff in his landing to concern you. He has, or at least has showed, No. 1 starter potential, but we might not know until 2019 if that has changed.

Editor's Picks

Keith Law's complete guide to NL East prospects: Braves are stacked, Phillies improving

With two of MLB's top five systems, the NL East is loaded with some of the best young talent in baseball.
Keith Law's complete guide to NL Central prospects: Reds loading up on stars, Cubs trying to restock system

With Hunter Greene and Nick Senzel in it, CIncinnati's system is the division's best. Which other NL Central teams have big-time talent on the way to the majors?
Index of Keith Law's 2018 top prospect rankings

Between minor leaguers with major league bloodlines and future stars who have been involved in major trades, there are plenty of familiar names on this year's list. Where did your team's top young players land?

Right-hander Joey Lucchesi (11) gets guys out with a funky delivery and crazy extension out front, letting his average stuff really play up. He'll sit 91-92 with a good changeup, curve and slider, throwing strike after strike because he repeats his delivery immaculately. There's still reliever risk, in part because he doesn't have a truly above-average pitch, and in part because it's weird, but he wrecked high-A hitters and held his own in Double-A last year. You have to at least let him continue to start.

Tirso Ornelas (12) has been a favorite of mine since he signed because I loved his swing, and he has already started filling out his 6-4 frame well and showing big-league-caliber power. He's more than average in right field, and showed a great approach as a 17-year-old in the AZL, finishing second in the league in walks (behind a 21-year-old) and 10th in OBP.

Esteury Ruiz (13) was the critical piece in the midseason trade that sent Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter to Kansas City. He's an offensive second baseman, shredded physically with serious juice when the ball leaves his bat, too aggressive at the plate and far from a finished product on defense. He's still got clear room for improvement, but massive upside, and will go to low-A this year at age 19.

Pedro Avila (14), acquired from the Nationals for Derek Norris, is a 6-foot right-hander who struck out 170 men in 129 innings last year, a bright kid with good feel for pitching and some stuff to back it up. He'll pitch up to 94 with a slider, curve and changeup; can sink the fastball a little; and pounds the strike zone with everything. He started the year in high-A, had four bad starts (15 R allowed in 15 IP), then was better for a month, but the Padres sent him back to low-A anyway because they had too many starters. He posted four double-digit strikeout games for Fort Wayne in 14 starts, including a 17K performance against Great Lakes on Aug. 8 when he faced just 27 batters in eight innings. He just turned 21 in mid-January and could still gain a little velo, with league-average starter a reasonable ceiling right now.

Chris Paddack (15) should be back and 100 percent by spring training after he missed half of 2016 and all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Padres acquired Paddack for Fernando Rodney but he blew out three starts after the trade -- and bear in mind, the Padres were forced to give back Luis Castillo in a later trade with the Marlins over Colin Rea's elbow, but no one forced the Marlins to make good on this deal. Paddack was up to 95 with a grade-65 changeup and no average third pitch before the injury, someone who could be a No. 2 or 3 if he finds a usable breaking ball and a 4 or 5 without it.

Jacob Nix's (16) season started late due to a groin injury, but he was excellent in high-A Lake Elsinore and earned an August promotion to Double-A, where he was fine outside of one disaster start where he gave up eight runs in 0.2 innings. Nix will work in the 93-95 range with an improved breaking ball and above-average changeup, throwing strikes but not missing as many bats as his stuff should. He can stay too upright in his delivery, but if he can finish out over his front side more -- closer to the plate -- he'll get a little more zip on his fastball.

Luis Campusano (17) was their second-round pick in 2017, a Georgia high school catcher who has some real juice in the bat, an average to above-average arm, and good blocking skills behind the plate. He might be a level-a-year guy as he works on receiving, game-calling and developing his approach as a hitter, but has above-average regular upside because of the power potential.

Reggie Lawson (18) has more upside than Avila but is further away, still working at 91-94 with a better curveball than he had his senior year in high school. He has trouble working deeper into games and facing hitters multiple times, which could be the lack of stamina of a 19-year-old pitcher or a sign that hitters see the ball too well from him. He's very athletic and his stuff still misses so many bats (28 percent in 2017) I think this is more about durability than stuff or deception.

Hudson Potts (19) went to Fort Wayne as an 18-year-old and was awful early, but made more contact as the season went on and finished with 23 doubles and 20 homers, with 18 of those bombs coming from June 1 onward as he cut his strikeout rate. His range at third will probably always be his weak spot, but his hands are good and he has the arm to stay there. He didn't walk much, and has to continue to refine his eye and swing decisions.

San Diego added Edward Olivares (20) in the trade that sent Yangervis Solarte to Toronto after Olivares had a breakout year as a 21-year-old in low-A. A speed/power guy who should stay in center field, Olivares was behind most players his age because injuries limited him to 15 games in 2016, all in the Appy League, which was his only experience above the complex league coming into last year. This will be an important year for him, with everyday upside based on his tools and position as well as a solid fourth-outfielder floor.

Shortstop Gabriel Arias (21), born Feb. 27, 2000, finished the year in the low-A, full-season Midwest League after a solid two months in the Arizona Rookie League, and actually hit an empty .240. To put it another way, Arias is 15 months younger than Austin Beck, the sixth pick in last year's draft out of a North Carolina high school, and ended up in Fort Wayne. He has a good swing that right now just produces contact, with average power to come. At short, he has a hose with good hands and the lateral range to stay at the position and even end up a plus defender. He may be pushed back to Fort Wayne as a result of the Padres' "what if we signed all the shortstops?" strategy.

Josh Naylor (22), a former first-round pick of the Marlins acquired in trade, had his best year at the plate but has gotten big enough that he might have to be a DH. He does have power and his plate discipline is fine; he has shown a modest platoon split that might worsen as he advanced but so far doesn't tag him as just a platoon player.

Justin Lopez (23) went to the advanced short-season Northwest League as a 17-year-old because the Padres had Too Many Shortstops, and he scuffled at the plate, as you'd expect from a kid that young, from Venezuela, in his first pro experience. He is an excellent defensive shortstop, the best of the group the Padres signed last year, and he does have a good swing for contact, but might find himself pushed past his present ability because they need to find places for all these dudes to play.

Jeison Rosario (24) finished ninth in the AZL in OBP, just five points ahead of Ornelas, with less power but better defense. Rosario is a no-doubt center fielder who might end up a 70 there with good OBP skills and some doubles. He didn't turn 18 until after the 2017 season.

Franchy Cordero (25) has been a bit overlooked in the flood of younger prospects coming into the system, but he could be a part of the Padres' outfield this year, a power/speed guy with dubious plate discipline who struggled with fastballs up in the big leagues. He's probably an extra guy in the end, but it's worth giving him some time the next two seasons to see if he can be selective enough to let the plus power play.

Shortstop Luis Almanzar (26) got the biggest bonus of their July 2 haul outside of the Cuban defectors, taking $4.05 million home, but his debut last year for Tri-City was underwhelming, although like many of their other prospects he was just 17 and young for anything but complex-league ball. He does have a beautiful swing with good loft and plenty of hip rotation, so if he doesn't hit and hit for some power, it'd have to be about plate discipline, and Almanzar's wasn't awful enough to write him off. He's probably going to move to third in the near future.

Andres Munoz (27) is just 18 but has hit 102 mph and will pitch at 94-98 with a plus curveball. He's a pure reliever with an arm action reminiscent of Craig Kimbrel's. His control isn't good enough yet to race him up the system, but if it gets there, the Padres might as well promote him aggressively because the stuff is so good and might not last.

Trey Wingenter (28) kept adding velocity the past two years and has hit 100, often sitting 96-99 with a power slider, getting touched up a little by lefties but overpowering most of them. At worst he looks like a good right-on-right guy.

Brad Wieck (29) is a 6-9 lefty who dominated Double-A last year with a solid-average fastball and good changeup, with reverse platoon splits the past two years, although he scuffled in a midyear promotion to El Paso and finished up back in the Texas League. The Padres swiped him from the Mets to complete a 2015 trade for Alex Torres, who threw 31 innings for New York that year and was out of baseball before the following season.

Tucupita Marcano (30) is a 6-foot, left-handed-hitting shortstop whose father played in the minors for several years, and who, as far as I can tell, was named for the Venezuelan town in which he was born. His swing works, and while he didn't hit for average in the DSL last year at 17, he rarely struck out and worked the count well, just lacking the strength to do enough when he put the ball in play. He's not a shortstop long-term, but should be fine on the dirt and does project to really hit.

But wait, there's more: Jordy Barley plays a bit out of control, but the ball absolutely flies off his bat because his hands are so strong. He's not a shortstop -- especially not in this system -- and he needs to walk more than once a week, but there's some explosive ability here if he can get to it. ... Mason Thompson's year was a disappointment as he made just seven mediocre starts around shoulder injuries; he'd been 91-94 in the spring when I saw him with a power curveball and too-firm changeup. Thompson only threw one inning his senior year of high school while recovering from Tommy John, so he's missed most of the past three years now with arm problems. ... Right-hander Michell Miliano threw just 15 innings in the AZL and gave up 16 runs, but the 17-year-old is 90-92 with a tight 75-77 mph curveball that projects to plus. He's about 6-4, athletic, and super projectable, but obviously a ways off from being a top 20 guy in this system. ... They took a very interesting if long-term prospect in the fifth round in 2017 with Alaska prep infielder Johnny Homza, a natural third baseman who they're converting to catcher. The swing is good, but inconsistent, and he's going to need time to learn to be a catcher and to hit pro pitching. He's the highest-drafted player ever to sign out of an Alaska high school. ... I have to mention just one more right-handed reliever, even though he's probably a middle guy at best. He's 92-95 with plus life, has a decent little slider around 79-81, but the delivery is pure relief, with no stride or use of his lower half and gate-swinging motion like Tyson Ross'. I wouldn't even include him, but this 19-year-old, who started for short-season Tri-City last year, is named ... Henry Henry. And I very much want him to get to the big leagues.

2018 impact: As strange as it might sound for a team with the No. 3 farm system, the Padres probably won't get much production from rookies this year, as they may have only one or two on their entire Opening Day roster. Franchy Cordero could make the club as part of an outfield rotation, since they don't have a true incumbent in left. Maybe Eric Lauer or Cal Quantrill gets a call-up late in the season, and I would hope Luis Urias would get that chance after he rakes in Triple-A, but for now their roster is set.

Sleeper: Do I have to pick just one? I'm a believer in Tirso Ornelas' bat, both the swing and the approach, and he impressed scouts who saw him in the AZL last summer (where the Padres had to field two teams to get everyone some reps). It will also be interesting to see what Chris Paddack looks like when he returns.

The fallen: You take the good, you take the bad, as Mrs. Garrett would say. Their 2016 second-rounder Buddy Reed always had a bad swing, and hit just .234/.290/.396 as a 22-year-old in low-A. Their first pick in 2015, second-rounder Austin Smith, repeated Fort Wayne, then was demoted to short-season and moved to relief.

San Francisco Giants
Tyler Beede could crack the Giants' starting rotation in 2018. Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

There's no sugar-coating it -- this is a bad system, stripped by trades, promotions and some high draft picks that haven't panned out, along with a near-total lack of prospects from the international side.

1. Heliot Ramos, OF (ranked No. 95)
2. Stephen Duggar, OF
3. Tyler Beede, RHP
4. Garrett Williams, LHP
5. Jacob Gonzalez, 3B
6. Aramis Garcia, C
7. Chris Shaw, 1B
8. Austin Slater, IF/OF
9. Sandro Fabian, OF
10. Shaun Anderson, RHP

Non-top 100 prospects

Stephen Duggar has made himself into a good defensive outfielder at all three spots, and might get a shot at the center field job -- at least as a platoon player -- this spring. He missed most of 2017 with a flexor strain and then a hamstring issue, but when healthy shows a solid approach at the plate, above-average speed, and below-average power. Tyler Beede's year ended in late July with a groin injury, but he'd been struggling in the PCL, some of which was the league's extreme hitters' parks (he gave up five homers in one outing at Las Vegas, some of which was command-related). He might have too many pitches, with a four- and two-seamer, slider, change and curveball, and could benefit from simplifying his mix and using his four-seamer, which can reach 97, up top of the zone as a chase pitch.

Garrett Williams was the biggest surprise in the system last year, his first full year in pro ball after an injury-plagued career at Oklahoma State, coming into camp in great shape and flashing three average-or-better pitches. His fastball will touch 95, his change shows plus, and he can vary his breaking ball depending on the hitter's handedness. The Giants limited his innings last year but he should be good for a full slate in 2018, starting in Double-A.

Jacob Gonzalez was their second-round pick in 2017 out of a Scottsdale High School. The son of Luis Gonzalez, Jacob is a bat-first prospect with projected power, a third baseman now likely to end up at first. He raked in the Arizona Rookie League, rarely swinging and missing, but was already 19 when the schedule began. Aramis Garcia looks like a solid backup catcher with some pop; he had mechanical issues with his throwing this year but normally is solid-average against the running game. Chris Shaw has 70 power with a below-average hit tool and is a mediocre first baseman; I don't think he sees the ball well at all and he was overmatched in Triple-A last year.

Austin Slater is a promising multi-position player, probably not good enough defensively to start in the middle and lacking the power for a corner, but with the ability to make a lot of contact and fill in at second, third or anywhere in the outfield. Sandro Fabian played in the Sally League at 19 last year, hitting .277/.290/.408, with 41 extra-base hits but just 10 walks in 503 plate appearances. He's a plus defender in right with a 65 arm, a slightly below-average runner, and projects to above-average power. It's really all projection given his youth and lack of any patience at the plate. Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston for Eduardo Nunez, was a closer at the University of Florida but has a chance to start, with a fastball up to 95, a cutter and a changeup.

Andrew Suarez (11) is a command lefty, up to 95 with an above-average changeup, throwing strikes with four pitches, almost certainly a back-end starter who might get to league average. Seth Corry (12) was their third-rounder in 2017, a baby-faced lefty from Utah who'll touch 93-94 and can spin a curveball, with some recoil in his delivery; he's an interesting long-term project.

Heath Quinn (13) strained an oblique muscle coming out of spring training, missing six weeks, and later in the season had some shoulder soreness, so his miserable year might have been the product of injury. He'll turn 23 in June and probably needs to get to Double-A this season; the most likely outcome is fourth outfielder but he has a chance to be a regular with sneaky power. Garrett Cave (14) was their fourth-round pick in 2017 out of the University of Tampa, a right-hander with arm strength and the makings of an average slider, but he's crude as a pitcher and more akin to a high school or junior college arm in his development. Joan Gregorio (15) was underperforming a bit as a starter in Triple-A when he tested positive for PEDs, ending his season at 74 innings in 13 starts. He might be a fifth starter or middle reliever.

2018 impact: Stephen Duggar may be a platoon center fielder with Austin Jackson, and Slater will probably be on the bench. Tyler Beede and/or Garrett Williams will be competing for starting spots in camp.

Sleeper: Garrett Williams is enticing if he's healthy, as he has the pitch mix to start and at least average present command.

The fallen: The Giants' top two picks from 2015 both debuted in the majors last year and were not good. Christian Arroyo hit .192/.244/.304 and was traded for Evan Longoria in the winter. Ryder Jones hit .173/.244/.273 in 53 games, losing his prospect eligibility for this year. Adding injury to insult, their third-rounder from that year, Chase Johnson, had Tommy John surgery in April.

Buster Olney's top 10 left fielders: Superstar shake-up has big names left out to dry
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Jan 9, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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After a month of bad reviews over the trade of MVP Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins might be inclined to hang on to their best remaining player, Christian Yelich, who is among MLB’s top 10 left fielders -- the position where he is expected to play in 2018.

Yelich has a team-friendly contract and will make only $7 million this season, so there’s no immediate pressure on Miami to deal him. In a year in which the Marlins will be a recurring punchline, Derek Jeter & Co. could cling to Yelich as a piece of credibility in the way that the San Diego Padres kept Tony Gwynn and Andy Benes through their 1993 fire sale of Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff and others.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders »
» Teams »
» Best units »

» Olney's Top 10 index page

But there’s a strong argument to be made that the Marlins’ best strategy is to deal Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and any other veteran of value, because any lasting damage that has been done to the franchise by Jeter’s Project Wolverine teardown could be irreversible -- unless the Marlins execute a near-perfect, cost-efficient rebuild. And even then, it may not matter to fans in south Florida.

The truncated history of the Montreal Expos might provide the best comparison to where the Marlins stand now. As the Montreal ownership made decisions about the team’s finances, the Expos’ fan base endured repeated departures of Hall of Fame-caliber players: Gary Carter. Andre Dawson. Tim Raines. Vladimir Guerrero. Pedro Martinez.

Eventually, the fans in Montreal stopped going to games. After Martinez was traded in the fall of 1997, the Expos’ attendance fell by about 40 percent, to less than 1 million, and in 2001, Montreal drew just 643,000. The 2004 Expos drew 750,000, with a lot of that accounted for by fans saying goodbye to the team.

Depending on how the Marlins handle their accounting this year, they may become the first MLB team since the ’04 Expos to fail to reach 1 million in attendance. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins’ through-the-turnstile count last year was closer to 800,000, or about half of their announced attendance of 1.59 million. With the trades of Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, the team will likely be terrible in 2018 and for at least three or four years after that, as the front office goes through its rebuilding/tanking. Yelich’s presence in a Marlins uniform isn’t going to fool fans about the product.

What’s most important now for the Marlins’ front office is to collect and develop the right group of prospects, and to time its collective ascension the way that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros did theirs. It’s a nearly impossible challenge, of course, because the Marlins aren’t embedded in the hearts of their fan base the way the Cubs were, nor do they have the financial potential of the Astros to augment their young players. The truth is that Project Wolverine is the baseball equivalent of a Hail Mary, because even if they get it right, fans in south Florida might not care anymore -- after the breakups of the ’97 and ’03 championship teams, the trade of 24-year-old superstar Miguel Cabrera, the swap of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle even after the opening of the taxpayer-funded ballpark, and now the salary dump of Stanton.

The new ownership group had one chance to make a first impression, one chance to distinguish itself from the distrusted regimes of the past. That has been squandered, and mortal damage may have been done to the market. Considering where the Marlins are today, they might as well push ahead and "rip the whole Band-Aid off,” as a rival executive said. “They might as well take all the pain now.”

So yes, the time is right to trade Yelich. His inclusion in the top-10 list below is based on the input of evaluators, with the counsel of ESPN researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.

1. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals

Under Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins sometimes acted rashly, doing stuff you’d never see from other organizations, such as when longtime evaluator Dan Jennings was named manager despite having zero experience in that role. But every so often, the impetuosity paid off -- and maybe it did with Marcell Ozuna. The young slugger showed up to spring training heavy and out of shape, and in midseason the Marlins demoted him to the minors, against the objections of his agent, Scott Boras.

You can debate how much the rebuke actually affected his play, but there’s no doubt that Ozuna improved a lot the past two years, which is why the Cardinals aggressively targeted him over the winter and will install him in the middle of their lineup. Ozuna was an average center fielder at best, but he is a good left fielder; only Brett Gardner had more defensive runs saved than Ozuna last year.

2. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ intention is to shift Yelich back to left field if they keep him, and if he’s traded he’s likely to be a corner outfielder moving forward. His power numbers have jumped the past two seasons -- he hit a total of 39 homers in 2016 and 2017 -- and any team that acquires him can do so with the expectation that Yelich’s production will continue to climb outside of the Marlins’ cavernous home park. Incredibly, 41 of his 59 career homers have been hit on the road, where his OPS has been 80 points higher than in his home games. He has been remarkably consistent in his ability to get on base: In his five seasons, Yelich’s OBP has ranged between .362 and .376 annually.

3. Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels

The Angels traded for Upton to help with the last month of their pennant push last season, but they also bought a one-month audition -- a test-drive with one of baseball’s best power hitters. And they liked what they saw, because after the season they negotiated a one-year extension for Upton, who could’ve opted out of his contract. "Justin embodied our offensive philosophy, which is to get on base and hit the ball hard," Angels GM Billy Eppler said on the night that the signing was announced. "He's shown a knack for doing that. He's got the power and the on-base skills that we covet, as well as the character and the professional approach necessary to be a key member of our core moving forward."
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 left fielders from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

Upton hit 35 homers last year and has had at least 26 homers in each of the past six seasons. He tied for 23rd in wRC+ among all hitters who qualified for the batting title.

4. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox

If not for Aaron Judge, Benintendi would’ve won the AL Rookie of the Year Award after a very solid first showing -- and there’s probably a lot more power to come. A longtime scout noted Benintendi’s unusual swing and its natural uppercut, giving him the ability to get the ball in the air, and as he learns more about pitchers and how he’s being attacked, that will likely manifest more and more. Benintendi hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases and scored 84 runs in his first season, and he ran the bases well and played good defensive.

5. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets

Cespedes' physical condition at the outset of spring training might be the biggest story in Mets camp again because of how last year played out. He reported to camp with the body of a middle linebacker after an offseason of heavy weight training, and after daily eruptions in batting practice, the Mets were hopeful that he would have a monster season. But Cespedes broke down repeatedly last summer and played just half of the Mets’ games, creating an enormous hole in the lineup. The Mets aren’t expecting anything out of David Wright, they need a second baseman and a first baseman, and they don’t know what they’ll get out of Matt Harvey -- and they can probably overcome all of that uncertainty and still contend. But given the structure of the Mets’ lineup and the $87 million they have invested in Cespedes moving ahead, it’s hard to imagine they can win in 2018 unless the 32-year-old Cespedes plays in 130-plus games. If he played 150 games, he would probably be MLB’s best left fielder.

6. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

As the Yankees have worked to manage their payroll and roster needs in recent winters, they have been open to the idea of trading Gardner -- and have been surprised by how unaggressive other teams have been. Gardner has been a clubhouse leader, a consistent source of accountability, and the Yankees have loved him for that, but he also has been a good player, with a solid on-base percentage (.350 last season), tough and extended at-bats, good defense, good baserunning, versatility and his emotional flexibility -- he'll do whatever they need him to. Now the Yankees may well keep him through the remainder of his contract, which pays him $11.5 million in 2018, with a club option for $12.5 million in 2019.

7. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins

A rival evaluator following the Twins believes that, collectively, their young hitters make an effort to ignore breaking pitches early in the count. They chased out of the strike zone less and gave themselves a chance to see better pitches later in the count. This seemed to really help Rosario, who improved significantly as the 2017 season progressed, hitting .311 with a .351 OBP and a .568 SLG after June 13. He finished the year with an adjusted OPS+ of 120. It was a crossroad season for him: Rosario’s patience at the plate improved, he gave himself a better chance to get better pitches to hit, and his rate of contact climbed.

8. Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
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He has hit 85 homers over the past two seasons, but he will be an interesting test case in the next year of the industry’s investment in defense. The Brewers traded Davis to Oakland a few years ago partly because of their concern about his outfield play, and metrics indicated that last season was his worst year defensively -- only six outfielders scored lower in defensive runs saved than Davis, who posted a minus-13 mark. Oakland manager Bob Melvin played him in fewer games in the outfield. In 2016, Chris Carter led the National League in home runs -- and then was nontendered. Davis made $5 million last season and will get a big raise this winter because the arbitration process rewards players for success with the old-school statistics like homers and RBI. If Oakland drifts out of contention in 2018 -- which is likely, given the strength at the top of the AL West -- and the Athletics dangle Davis in the trade market, the level of interest will be the first strong indication of how Davis' skill set is actually valued by rival evaluators.

9. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

With the start of spring training a little more than a month away, the Pirates haven’t wholly embraced a course of action for 2018; after weeks of trade discussion, they still have Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison on their roster. They still have the option of trying to win in 2018.

A really important variable in their plans is the expected performance of Marte, and the simple fact of the matter is they have no way of knowing what type of player he will be in the year ahead. Marte was busted for PEDs early last season and didn't produce after he returned from suspension: In those 64 games, he had a .723 OPS with 13 extra-base hits, although he batted .330 in his last 23 games. Because of his lack of time on the field during the regular season, the Pirates gave him the OK to play winter ball, and he initially struggled before finishing with a .255 average and .310 on-base percentage.

The Pirates don’t know if Marte’s strong play in the past was rooted in PED use, or if he can be a high-end offensive player. At the very least, he’ll help Pittsburgh’s defense (and pitching, by extension) with his glove work. He had eight defensive runs saved in just 665⅓ innings last season.

10. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

His impact in the big leagues was immediate -- 18 homers in 50 games -- but the lasting impression that Hoskins made on some evaluators was his willingness to take a walk as opposing pitchers tried to cope with his power. He drew 37 walks and averaged 4.65 pitches per plate appearance, and had a .396 on-base percentage. Hoskins will have to face more counterattacks in his second season in the big leagues, but the Phillies saw enough of him in the lineup and in left field to buy into three years of Carlos Santana at first base, giving Philadelphia a powerful lineup core.
Best of the rest

• Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians: He hit .299 in 90 games, but then suffered an ankle injury.

• Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds: Duvall continues to do a lot of damage -- he’s got back-to-back seasons with at least 70 extra-base hits.

• Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: In his first full season in the big leagues, he had an adjusted OPS+ of 120, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

• Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays: He made the AL All-Star team for the first time.

• Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: He was off to a phenomenal start in 2017 with a .393 OBP when he went down with a knee injury. The Nationals plan to move him to left field in 2018

Buster Olney's top 10 center fielders: A new crew can't catch Mike Trout ... yet
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Jan 10, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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A few hours before George Springer became a World Series champion, he lounged in front of his assigned locker in Dodger Stadium listening to an ‘80s mixtape and explained the dramatic change in his numbers last season: his reduction in strikeouts, from 178 to 111, and in his swing-and-miss rate, from 12.4 percent to 9.5 percent.

“I just made up my mind I wasn’t going to strike out as much,” said Springer, who owns real estate in our top 10 list of center fielders.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders »
» Teams »
» Best units »

» Olney's Top 10 index page

Joey Votto, the best and smartest hitter in baseball, offered a similar take in the midst of his incredible 2017 season, as he cut his strikeouts from 120 to 83. Anthony Rizzo had 127 strikeouts in 2013, back when he had trouble with inside fastballs, but he moved closer to the plate in the batter’s box and used the same kind of approach as Votto: As the ball-strike count deepens, he chokes up on the bat, digs in and focuses on not striking out. Last year, Rizzo had 91 walks and 90 strikeouts, marking the first season in his career in which his walk-strikeout ratio reached 1:1.

Executing an adjustment such as this is difficult -- more complicated than a simplified encapsulation for a reporter suggests. But the ground floor of change began with a new mindset for each plate appearance -- I’m not going to strike out -- and these are some of the greatest athletes in the world, with the physical skills to support that single-mindedness.

A lot of hitters have devoted themselves to the idea of lifting the ball in the air in recent years, based on the theory that in the era of the shift, ground balls are the worst possible result of a plate appearance and usually result in singles -- and hitters get paid for big damage.
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But there probably needs to be an adjustment of thought behind that adjustment because sluggers are not necessarily getting paid. This winter’s free-agent market is glutted with hitters who racked up a lot of homers -- and strikeouts -- and some of them are struggling to land expected rewards, just as they did last winter. Five hitters who had 30 or more homers last season remain unsigned.

On-base percentage, on the other hand, will usually get you paid, even in slow markets. Carlos Santana has gotten the biggest contract this winter so far, $60 million over three years, because the Phillies value his high OBP. Santana’s 23 homers tied for 84th in the majors, but he posted an OBP of .363, 37th in baseball, and Philly bought in (Santana has had an on-base percentage of .350 or higher in each of his eight seasons). Zack Cozart improved his OBP from .308 in 2016 to .385 last season, and the Angels locked him up to a three-year deal for $38 million. By winter’s end, it figures that Cozart is going to be making a lot more money than peers who hit a lot more homers.

Executives from some teams who have had internal discussions on Mike Moustakas have talked about the pros to signing him: the solid defense, the experience, the power. Moustakas clubbed 38 homers last season, but some evaluators focus on a number that concerns them: Moustakas had a .314 on-base percentage.

As Springer worked on reducing his strikeouts, his on-base percentage climbed to .367, and he generated plenty of power as well, with 29 doubles and 34 home runs. In the top of the 11th inning of Game 2 of the World Series, Springer came to the plate, and as he explained after, he was just looking to make contact, to take the ball through the middle of the field -- as he had all season. He was shocked when his line drive to right-center field carried over the wall, a turning point in one of the best postseason series ever played. Springer’s speed and defense already separated him from a lot of his peers, but as his career progresses, his improving ability to reach base will make him even more coveted.

Here is our ranking of the top 10 center fielders, compiled with input from MLB evaluators and ESPN researchers Sarah Langs, Paul Hembekides and Mark Simon:

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

On the latest leg of his journey to Cooperstown, he reached a couple of milestones in his career last summer, collecting career hit No. 1,000 and career homer No. 200. He’s 26 years old.

Beyond his physical talents, Trout has always demonstrated a knack for using information, for cornering the opposing pitcher in the possible choices and capitalizing. For example, he has consistently improved his OPS through a sequence of plate appearances in the same game against starting pitchers. His career numbers:

First plate appearance against a starter: .929

Second: 1.017

Third: 1.020

Fourth-plus: 1.135

More evidence of this talent for adjustments is in his improving production as he gets ahead in the count and the pitcher’s options narrow. More often than not, opposing pitchers don’t even bother trying to dig themselves out, but sometimes they try -- and it often doesn’t go well.
Don't fall behind Mike Trout
Situation Trout's OPS in '17 MLB average
After the count is 1-0 1.125 .857
After the count is 2-1 1.161 .835
After the count is 2-0 1.389 1.023
After the count is 3-1 1.671 1.073

2. Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

He finished 2017 with 387 total bases after leading the NL in hits (237). He had 86 extra-base hits and was fifth in the NL in MVP voting. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are the headliners in next year’s free-agent class because they’ll reach in the market in their mid-20s, but Blackmon is bound to draw a lot of interest given the breadth of his offensive skills. Like other Colorado players, he’ll draw scrutiny from execs because of his home/road splits: In Colorado, he had an OPS of 1.239 at home and .784 on the road.

From Sarah Langs: Blackmon has generated 10.5 WAR the past two seasons, the most by an NL outfielder.

3. George Springer, Houston Astros

A couple more notes on Springer: He has scored 228 runs the past two seasons, and his defensive metrics provide another example of how evaluating fielding continues to be a work in progress. When he played center field last year he was a plus-5 in defensive runs saved, and in right field he scored minus-7.
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 center fielders from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

4. Lorenzo Cain, free agent

He had a solid season before he went into the market, rating 4.1 fWAR, hitting .300 and accumulating a .363 OBP. He’ll turn 32 in April, but scouts continue to view him as a good outfielder (he rated plus-5 in defensive runs saved last season) with the ability to play any of the three spots, and he’s still among the better baserunners.

5. Tommy Pham, St. Louis Cardinals

At the outset of spring training last season, he was an extra outfielder, and by the end of the year, the Cardinals had shifted Dexter Fowler -- their highest-paid position player -- to right field in order to make room for Pham in center. Pham posted a .411 OBP in 128 games last season, with 95 runs, 22 homers and 23 stolen bases, and he received some top-10 votes for NL MVP.

6. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

He is to this position what Andrelton Simmons is to shortstops, possessing so much defensive value that his skills on that side of the ball obscure questions about his offensive production. Even so, year by year, Buxton is gaining traction at the plate. His OBP climbed 30 points from 2016 to .314 in 2017, and as he learns more and can apply his speed, he’ll be a steady triple-double threat, averaging double-figures in doubles, triples and homers. He scored the highest in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric in 2017, and it wasn’t close.

7. Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers

For the record, Taylor started just 49 games in center field for the Dodgers last season, and he figures to move around a lot again in 2018 because of his versatility. He played five positions last season. But in the biggest games of the year, in the postseason, Taylor played a lot in center field. He had a .354 on-base percentage, with 60 extra-base hits, 85 runs and 17 stolen bases. Through his swing adjustments, he pummeled pitchers. During the postseason, a Cubs official said, “I’m not sure anybody is squaring up the ball more consistently than he is right now.”

8. Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte generated 201 hits in 2017 and won his second Gold Glove, as part of his wide range of skills. “He needs a run through the playoffs for fans to really know how good he is,” one evaluator said.

9. Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies

He draws a lot of attention from evaluators -- and perhaps MLB officials -- because of the pure length of his plate appearances. He averaged 29.2 seconds between pitches, and only Marwin Gonzalez of the Astros averaged more, at 29.6. But you can’t argue with Herrera’s results: He racked up 42 doubles and 14 homers in 138 games, and he posted plus-4 in DRS.

10. Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays

If Tampa Bay moves Chris Archer, signaling a complete teardown, it would make sense for the Rays to entertain offers on Kiermaier, one of baseball’s best defenders when healthy. He has missed 121 games the past two seasons.
Best of the rest

• Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox: His offensive production declined last season, but he continues to be a great defender.
MLB offseason

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• Complete MLB hot stove coverage »

• Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: He bounced back to an adjusted OPS+ of 121 in 2017 after his ’16 struggles. The Pirates continue to talk with other teams about trade possibilities involving the longtime star.

• A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks: He has been derailed by injuries since his monster 2015 season, playing 124 games the past two seasons, but he is healthy heading into the final season before he’ll become eligible for free agency.

• Michael Taylor, Washington Nationals: He proved himself with his strong play in 2017 and could climb this list in 2018.

• Kevin Pillar, Toronto Blue Jays: As usual, he thrived on defense, and he hit 16 homers and swiped 15 bases. Evaluators probably would have him higher on this list if he generated more OBP. He was at .300 last season.

• Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees: He made major improvements last season, generating an .847 OPS. His next test will be playing a full season. He has never had more than 390 plate appearances in an MLB season.

• Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds: Hamilton continues to be a weapon in the outfield and on the bases. He has 230 stolen bases the past four years, despite missing 124 games.

Buster Olney's top 10 right fielders: The biggest are in the Bronx, but are they better than Bryce?
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Jan 11, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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Neither Brian Cashman nor Aaron Boone can give you a precise estimate of how many games Giancarlo Stanton will serve at designated hitter or how often Aaron Judge will be in left field. They really don’t know.

But that’s a good thing.
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What they do know is that their frontline outfielders -- for now, Jacoby Ellsbury is not in that group, as the fifth guy on the offseason depth chart -- are pliable and willing to do whatever they ask and can play multiple positions. Brett Gardner can play all three outfield spots, and so can Aaron Hicks. Judge played a better-than-average right field last season, with speed that is surprising for the biggest position player in baseball history, and though he could play left field on some days, he’s also an option in center field, a spot he manned extensively in college and occasionally in the minor leagues.

The lineup will be dictated by the needs of each day. It’s possible that the Opening Day lineup could be Gardner, Hicks and Judge in the outfield, left to right, with Stanton in the role of DH. But if Gardner is dealing with a minor nagging injury, Judge could play left and Stanton could be in right. Judge is coming back from shoulder surgery, and if he requires additional days off early, then Ellsbury could play center, with Stanton or Hicks in right field.

There’s also the possibility that Stanton won’t take to the DH role and might prefer to play in the outfield most days -- and that would not be unusual. Even in the late stages of Albert Pujols’ career, there is a belief that he is more comfortable in his at-bats if he’s playing first base. Some players feel more into the flow of the game if they can focus on defense between their plate appearances, rather than waiting 45 minutes to an hour in the dugout or the clubhouse for each at-bat.

It could be that Stanton will love the DH role and perhaps prefer it. He has started 13 games in his career at that spot, and in that small sample of games, he has batted .333 with an OPS of 1.019. Even so, it probably wouldn’t be in the Yankees’ long-term interest to have the 28-year-old Stanton settle in as a full-time DH with 10 years remaining on his contract. For almost all teams, the DH has become a useful spot to park a player for semi-rest. Last year, 17 position players had plate appearances as the DH for the Yankees.

How Boone arranges his outfield in his first season as the Yankees’ manager will mostly be a feel thing, which is why in January, when snow covers the Yankee Stadium outfield, he can’t tell you if Stanton will play 20 games in right field or 120. The Yankees will all report to Tampa and figure it out together.

Because of that uncertainty, we’ll list both Judge and Stanton in our ranking of the Top 10 right fielders, which was compiled with the input of evaluators from both leagues and with the aid of ESPN researchers Sarah Langs, Paul Hembekides and Mark Simon.

1. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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The slump that he experienced lasted almost two months, a mid-July slog that extended all the way through August and into September. It meant day after day of strikeouts and reporter autopsies, in the world’s largest media market. Those were the worst of times for Aaron Judge in 2017, encompassing a third of the season, but he still managed to be productive because of his exceptional plate discipline. He took his walks, got on base and posted a .346 OBP, and through that awful stretch, he was still a threat, scoring 30 runs and playing good defense.

The other two-thirds of the season, he was arguably the best player in baseball. In the 101 games that bookended the slump, Judge batted .335 with 82 walks, 98 runs and 43 home runs -- in his rookie season.

The fact that he eventually dug his way out of that slide -- and another during the postseason -- gave some early insight into his ability to make adjustments, which Matt Holliday and other teammates lauded.

Because of his size and the size of his strike zone, he’ll always strike out a lot, and he’ll always have some slumps. But he was monster performer last year, and nobody was really close to him in fWAR.

From Sarah Langs: Judge became the fifth player in MLB history with at least 50 homers, 120 walks and 120 runs scored in a season, joining Babe Ruth (who did it four times), Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds.

2. Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

As he told our friend Jayson Stark last spring, he arrived at camp rededicated to baseball after traveling extensively in the aftermath of Jose Fernandez’s death, and Stanton had the best season of his career in ’17. He played in 159 games and blasted 59 homers, and even while playing for the struggling Marlins -- in their pitcher’s park -- he did more than enough to win the NL MVP. Some evaluators noted that Stanton seemed more patient at the plate, which showed in the results: His chase rate fell to a career low last season, and his swing-and-miss rate was at 12.5 percent, his best ever. As pitchers will attest: When Stanton hits the ball, bad stuff (or good) happens. Quickly.

There will be questions this year about his transition to a place of greater media scrutiny in New York after he played the first half of his career for a team covered regularly by just three news outlets.

From Langs: Stanton joined Andruw Jones (2005) as the only players with at least 10 defensive runs saved in a 50-homer season (DRS dates to 2003).

3. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

He could easily be No. 1 on this list, if not for his injuries. Over the past five seasons, Harper has played more than 118 games in a season twice. When he suffered his knee injury last summer, Harper was probably a front-runner to be the NL MVP for the second time in his career, after posting a wRC+ of 156. In the end, that mark tied with Stanton's.
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 right fielders from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

Only Shohei Ohtani will be watched more closely than Harper this year, and the pressure hovering over Harper will be a Category 5 swirl. With Harper closing in on free agency next fall, this might be the last chance this core group of Nationals has to win a championship together after stalling in the postseason repeatedly in the past. There will be questions about that. Also, the All-Star Game will be in Washington this year, and each of Harper’s words and actions will be picked apart for clues about his intentions: Will he stay, or will he go? Finally, of course, there is speculation building that he and/or Manny Machado will surpass Stanton for the most lucrative contract ever.

By the way: Harper just turned 25 years old a couple months ago. This could be a great year for him because he’ll get to swing a bat and do a lot of baseball stuff. But it won’t be easy.

4. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

If you created a ranking for the best all-around players in MLB, Betts probably would be somewhere in the top five, given his wide range of skills. One long-time evaluator said that in Betts’ work in right field, he plays balls hit in front of him “better than anyone I’ve ever seen. The best ever.” This is reflected in some of his metrics: Betts accumulated 31 defensive runs saved last season, the most by any outfielder by far. Betts is an exceptional baserunner as well; just Byron Buxton and Billy Hamilton generated higher ratings last season.

His offensive production lagged last season, and among the Red Sox hitters, he might have suffered the most from the departure of David Ortiz because there simply was no significant threat behind Betts. In a big spot, there was less reason to pitch to him. Thirty of the 77 walks he drew came with runners on base.

5. J.D. Martinez, free agent

If he eventually signs with Boston -- and many rival executives expect that this will happen -- then Martinez will probably be the primary DH for the Red Sox, unless they trade Jackie Bradley Jr. and move Andrew Benintendi to center, opening a spot in left for Martinez. But friends of Martinez say his preference is to continue to play as a corner outfielder, and last year he had a monster season as a right fielder for the Tigers and Diamondbacks. After joining Arizona, he had a .741 slugging percentage, with more homers (29) than singles (27).

6. Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers

He has five years in the majors, more than 2,000 at-bats and 4,500 innings on defense -- and evaluators are still trying to figure out what he is and what he’s going to do next. There are folks within the Dodgers organization who were surprised that he didn’t win a Gold Glove for his defense last season after he played consistently well, tying with Jason Heyward in DRS with 18 and repeatedly discouraging runners from trying to take an extra base. He showed more discipline at the plate and drew 64 walks in a good albeit unspectacular season.

7. Josh Reddick, Houston Astros
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Some folks with other teams were surprised at the Astros’ level of investment in Reddick when he was a free agent last winter, but in his first season in Houston, he posted a .363 OBP, the best of his career. He greatly improved his performance against left-handed pitching, which had been a serious problem in the past -- last year, Reddick batted .315 versus lefties in 101 plate appearances. He did not rate well in defensive metrics, but at least one evaluator who saw him play regularly believes that Reddick might be a victim of methodological flaws in the way glove work is assessed and that he is a good outfielder.

8. Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

He got in better shape last year and had the best season of his career, batting .330 with a .380 OBP. A skeptic might focus on a number that might inevitably change for him: Last year, his batting average on balls in play was .392, the highest in the majors by a margin of 21 points. That number is bound to come down.

9. Jay Bruce, New York Mets

His journey the past couple of years has been strange. In 2016, Bruce was an All-Star and hit 33 homers for the Reds and Mets. He followed that with a strong first half for the Mets in ’17, but no team stepped forward with a substantive offer before the trade deadline, and then Bruce even passed through waivers unclaimed. The Mets eventually moved him to Cleveland in what was a salary giveaway, and all the while, he continued to play effectively, posting an .808 OPS. For the season, Bruce hit 36 homers, drove in 101 runs and saw an improvement in his defensive metrics, and on Wednesday, the 30-year-old agreed to a three-year deal to return to Queens.

10. Dexter Fowler, St. Louis Cardinals

With Tommy Pham taking over in center field for St. Louis, Fowler shifts to right field. He battled injuries throughout 2017 and missed 44 games, but he managed to achieve a career high in homers and post a .363 OBP in his first season with the Cardinals.
Best of the rest

• Domingo Santana, Milwaukee Brewers: He was a full-time regular in the big leagues for the first time and had a strong season, with a .371 OBP, 88 runs, 30 homers and 15 steals.

• Steven Souza, Jr. Tampa Bay Rays: He had his best season with the Rays, hitting 30 homers with a .351 OBP.

• Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels: He’s one of the players who could benefit from the improved depth of the Angels’ lineup because he’ll come to bat with runners on base more often through the additions of Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart.




This post was edited by SheriffCool on Feb 27 2018 07:13pm

Sorry I missed those man, I hope better late than never. You can always pm me and you'll way have better success (that goes for anyone else as well). Not intentionally avoiding you by any means, but it's hard to post from my phone with the copy and paste aspect of it, and most of the time by the time I get home I'll forget to check baseball especially. Last few months have been kinda nuts with the concerts and work and traveling and getting ready for my next trip to vegas in a couple weeks, i have been trying to tie up loose ends and shit for my company so my son can run it while I'm gone.

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=8062

thanks

The market for J.D. Martinez appeared to comprise just one team -- the Boston Red Sox, who had the means, motive and opportunity to sign the outfielder/DH whom no other team seemed to come close to in terms of offers. That may have contributed to the lengthy stalemate. I think the Red Sox blinked, giving Martinez a five-year, $110 million deal that is certainly too long (the deal includes an opt-out after two years), but does improve their offense in a way no other free agent this year could have, and directly boosts their chances of repeating as division champs.

In the short term, Martinez is exactly what the Red Sox need: a power hitter to insert into a lineup that hit the fewest homers of any American League team last year -- 168, 18 home runs behind the next lowest total. The Red Sox were fifth in the AL in OBP last year, helping them to a sixth-place finish in runs scored despite the lack of home run power, but with even average home run totals they likely would have finished in the top three.
Watch out AL East, here comes J.D. Martinez, new Red Sox slugger. Mark J. Terrill/AP Photo

Some of their returning hitters should put more balls in the seats this year. Xander Bogaerts played through two hand injuries last year, and a full season of Rafael Devers at third should be worth more than the 17 homers they got all year from that position. But the incumbents on the roster weren't getting past 200 homers without some outside help.

Martinez has averaged 40 homers per 162 games since he became a regular in 2014. Even if you want to toss 2017 as an outlier, since he hit a ridiculous 29 homers in 62 games for the Diamondbacks, he averaged 34 homers per 162 games in the previous three seasons.

Martinez is a power hitter with strong batting averages and improving walk rates, but he brings no value on defense or on the bases. He's a well-below-average defender in left, hasn't played first base since 2009 (two games in short-season ball) and gives the Red Sox two players who really should be full-time designated hitters. There's no reason that Martinez should play in the outfield over Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr., so Martinez has to become the full-time DH, which means Hanley Ramirez becomes either the full-time first baseman or, more likely, platoons with Mitch Moreland at first. That latter solution could be incredibly productive -- Moreland has never hit lefties -- if Ramirez is willing to accept the demotion.
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It seems unlikely this deal will age well, even if it doesn't age quite as quickly as the Pablo Sandoval contract. Martinez will play at 30 years old this year, 34 in the final year, and he's the type of player who tends to decline more in his 30s than better athletes or players with more defensive value. I'd put good money on Martinez spending 2022 on the bench or elsewhere, given his profile. But this deal still makes sense for the Red Sox, even with the caveat that the last year or two will probably produce negative returns because Martinez provides so much on-field value in the first few years, while the team is contending and its homegrown core is still here and relatively inexpensive.

Martinez gets the equivalent of the first part of the Hosmer deal, the portion before Hosmer's opt-out, even though he has been a much better player to this point in their respective careers. Boston won the AL East last year with 93 wins, two games ahead of the Yankees, who already have improved substantially this winter; adding a hitter who addresses Boston’s most glaring weakness is a high-return investment because of where they're likely to be in the standings this year.

The Padres, meanwhile, won 71 games last year and are the weakest team in the NL West on paper right now, with very little chance of being at or above .500 in 2018. Even if the two deals were equal, I'd still favor the Martinez deal because the Red Sox are in win-now mode and he's taking up a smaller portion of their payroll. But they're not equal, since the Padres gave Hosmer a player option for the last three years at $39 million, years when Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system has Hosmer playing near replacement-level baseball.

The Martinez deal makes the Hosmer deal even harder to understand. The better player got the smaller contract even though he went to a team with a higher payroll and a much better chance of a playoff berth in 2018 or 2019. In a market that has been surprisingly unfavorable to top free agents, Hosmer's contract stands out as the best deal for the player.