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Nov 20 2017 09:13pm
Last year's free-agent class was the worst I'd ever seen, so we could only go up from there -- and we have, as the top tier this winter is substantially better than last year's, and the rankings aren't quite so reliant on relievers and bench guys. The class is still overpopulated with the first-base/DH/oh-God-I-hope-we-don't-have-to-play-him-in-left-field types, many of whom have long-standing platoon splits. But that seems to be a regular feature of free agency at this point, especially as teams turn away from long-term deals for average corner bats and try to develop younger, cheaper ones internally.

As usual, there's a ton of money out there in search of players. With these rankings, I try to provide a rough idea of the offer I'd be comfortable making to each player if I were the general manager of a contending team (or would-be contending team) and operating at or above the median payroll level. Estimating the actual dollar value of a player to any specific team is nearly impossible, because we don't know what the marginal revenue product of a win is for each club, and that number can change for a team from season to season, or even within a season, if it's much better or worse than expected.

My numbers are not predictions, and they often will fall short of actual market values. That is due to the "winner's curse" phenomenon, in which the winner of an auction for a good player of uncertain value is the bidder whose internal estimates are the highest (and thus perhaps too optimistic). Teams with large payrolls can and often do pay more for a win in the free-agent market.

This document will be updated as the offseason wears on. When a player signs, we'll add a note in the profile as to which team he signed with and for how much. We'll also add a note if he received a $17.4-million qualifying offer. If a player receives one and signs elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick, and having a qualifying offer "attached" can really hurt the value of non-elite free agents.

I have excluded Nippon Professional Baseball superstar Shohei Otani for now, as there's no evidence yet to say he's going to be posted this winter. He doesn't have an agent, and he had surgery last month to repair a posterior impingement in an ankle that bothered him all season.

If he is posted this winter, he'll be subject to MLB's (ridiculous, myopic) caps on international free agents that normally apply to 16-year-old amateurs. If he were to wait two more seasons and join the majors after 2019, however, he would be a completely unrestricted free agent. The difference in compensation would likely be more than $100 million, so he has strong incentive to get healthy, pitch well for two years, and then come over for a huge windfall.

If, however, he is posted this winter, I will add him to this list at No. 1 (strictly as a pitcher).

Now, on to the rankings ...

1. Yu Darvish, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 216
Career WAR: 19.3

Darvish has averaged 4.5 WAR per 31 starts over his career, which was interrupted by Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015 and much of 2016, but he has altered his pitching style since his return and, until his trade to the Dodgers, had settled at a lower level of performance than his previous ace-like self.

He amped up the use of his cutter and trimmed the use of his slider, giving him a better weapon to get left-handed batters out, and while I'd still like to see the return of his changeup (or even his splitter), he's at least approaching a pitch mix that should limit his platoon splits and keep hitters from squaring up his four-seamer.

Darvish's awful showing in two World Series games -- possibly the result of tipping his pitches -- won't help his free-agent case any, but I'd be surprised if it did more than shave a tiny bit off the top. When you sign a free agent, you're signing him for his projected regular-season output, with the hope that your team first reaches the postseason and then he can contribute there too. You sign Darvish because you're hoping for 30-32 starts of above-average pitching from April to September. Teams that back off because of two bad (OK, atrocious) outings in the World Series are letting recency bias overrule their rational judgment.

2. Lorenzo Cain, CF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 27.8

Much of Cain's value has been wrapped up in his defense, which has slipped over the past two years and is unlikely to improve again now that he's entering his age-32 season. The team signing him should expect an average defensive center fielder who hits for average with modest power and OBP, probably a solid-average every-day player who might deliver 12 WAR over a four-year deal.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Royals

3. Zack Cozart, SS
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 204
Career WAR: 16.5

Talk about having a big walk year -- Cozart hit 24 homers, 50 percent higher than his previous best, en route to setting career highs across the board offensively, the function of making harder contact than he had before (and maybe some help from the baseball), and did it all despite playing in just 122 games.

He's also 32, and probably only declines from here on offense and defense (which is still plus), especially in the power department. Shortstops who can hit at all are so scarce that he's probably worth an overpayment relative to pure statistical projections, on the chance that you get one or more All-Star years from him before he regresses. It's hard to believe, and he may not get there, but he's probably worth $24 million a year on a three- or even four-year deal.

4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 20.3

Arrieta finally reaches free agency this year entering his age-32 season, late for a starter and especially so for one drafted out of college, but years of mishandling in the Baltimore system set him back to the point where he never developed as a starter until he went to the Cubs in a mid-2013 trade.

He peaked in his Cy Young-winning 2015 season, both in performance and workload, but has seen his velocity slip since and then missed a few starts this year with a hamstring injury. He could return to his peak form, but I wouldn't bet on it, not given his age, loss of velocity and diminishing control. You sign Arrieta hoping for a mid-rotation starter who can take the ball 31 times, which itself is worth $20 million a year, but if anyone pays him as if he's still an ace, they're taking on an unacceptable risk.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Cubs

5. Carlos Santana, 1B
Age: 31 | B-T: B/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 24.5

I think the biggest surprise with Santana is that he has turned into a competent first baseman. A catcher for the first three years of his MLB career, Santana hasn't logged an inning behind the plate since 2014, but he has turned out to be more than just playable at first. That matters in a market saturated with designated hitters and guys who should move to DH.

Santana has been very consistent at the plate over his career, walking often and striking out at about the same rate (even as league strikeout rates have risen, his has dropped), and hitting for modest power. He's had an OBP between .357 and .377 for six straight seasons. He played in 143 games in 2012, and has played in 152 or more in every year since, hitting at least 19 homers in each of the past five seasons. The knock on Santana is that he doesn't make a ton of hard contact, so it's not as if you can project a power surge or sudden spike in his average. I do think he'll hold the value he has for a while, so a four-year, $60 million deal would be reasonable, maybe a little low in light of his consistency and durability.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Indians

6. J.D. Martinez, OF/DH
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 221
Career WAR: 13.7

If all Martinez ever had to do was hit -- never field, never run, never go anywhere but to and from the batter's box -- he might be a six-win player and the best free agent on the market. Martinez, who remade his swing after the Astros released him in March 2014, has become a fairly patient hitter who makes consistently high-quality contact.

He's more than just a home run hitter, although I'm sure that's how he'll be sold this offseason. He's entering his age-30 season and has negative defensive value, to the point where I'd look at him as a primary DH who can play left field on an occasional basis, and hope for some 5-WAR seasons at the start of any long-term deal. He is the type of player who, over MLB history, has declined faster than players who play defense well or are better athletes, so while the market will probably give him five years, the end of the deal will probably see a big drop-off in production.

7. Eric Hosmer, 1B
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 14.1

Which Hosmer are you buying if you sign him as a free agent this winter -- the guy who produced about 30 batting runs in the past five months of 2017, or the guy who produced about 30 batting runs in total over the first 900 games of his career?

Hosmer is young enough that this could just be a delayed breakout from a former top prospect (No. 3 overall pick in 2008, my No. 5 overall prospect going into 2011), but I'm always skeptical of walk-year spikes in performance. Just ask the Angels how that Gary Matthews Jr. deal worked out.

I could see giving Hosmer four years and $60 million to $70 million given his youth and the possibility that he's really a four-win player going forward, but paying even that much to a player who was replacement level as recently as 2016 should make any GM nervous.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Royals

8. Alex Cobb, RHP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 10.9

Cobb came back from Tommy John surgery a different pitcher, as his changeup hasn't had the same action post-injury, leading him to rely more on his curveball than his change. That didn't lead to a visible platoon split in 2017, but there are warning signs in his splits, including a lower K rate and higher walk rate against lefties, that could indicate trouble going forward.

He also has never reached 180 innings in any pro season, as this year's 179⅓ was a career high, as were the 29 starts he made in 2017. Previously a potential No. 3 with his command and the out-pitch potential of the changeup, he's more of a back-end starter now with some durability questions, but you could still dream a little of some greater upside if a new environment or coach can help him regain some of what he lost on the third pitch.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Rays

9. Todd Frazier, 3B
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 22.0

Frazier hasn't been quite as productive since he left Cincinnati after the 2015 season, as he hit for more power in the Reds' cozy home park and for a higher average/OBP there as well. While Frazier suddenly became more patient in 2017, especially after his trade to the Yankees in July, he's not making much hard contact anymore, which was behind his career-worst .227 BABIP this year (the fourth time in five years he was under .280) and his drop-off to 27 homers after hitting 40 and 35 the previous two seasons.

His defensive metrics have wavered in the past few seasons, but he has been slightly above average for most of his career, and I don't see any physical reason he would lose that anytime soon. In today's game, there's a place for a regular who can play a skill position and post a low-.300s OBP with 25 to 30 homers. He was worth about 3.0 wins in 2017, but given the anomalous walk rate and his age (32 in 2018), I'd want to pay him more in the range of 2 to 2.5 wins per year instead.

10. Carlos Gomez, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 25.6

He didn't hit left-handed pitching at all in 2017, an outlier in his career and a trait extremely unlikely to endure for a right-handed hitter. (Reverse platoon splits for right-handed batters almost never last.) The part that's hard to believe if you watch Gomez now is that he's just an average runner; he used to be at least a 70 runner, and averaged 37 steals a year from 2012 to 2014, but that guy is long gone. Even MLB's Sprint Speed metric, which shows the fastest one-second interval recorded by Statcast for each player, has him just around the middle of the pack.

That has made him an average defender in center, rather than the plus-plus defender he once was, and he's not as durable as he was in Milwaukee, either. That said, he's one of the only solid-average every-day center fielders available in free agency, so even if you assume there's no return to any of the skills he showed before he was traded to Houston, he's probably a $15 million per year player, even after his fall from All-Star heights.

11. Logan Morrison, 1B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-2 | WT: 240
Career WAR: 5.2

Morrison's 2016 season was marred by a tear in his wrist that eventually required surgery, but he came back strong on a bargain deal with the Rays, hitting 38 homers and producing 3.6 bWAR for just $2.5 million. He also set career highs in walks and OBP, demonstrating the patience he'd shown as a prospect in the Marlins' system seven-plus years ago.

Morrison had the highest hard-contact rate of his career this season and worked to put the ball in the air a lot more frequently, both to hit for power and to defeat the shift against him. He has played some left field but should be playing only first base at this point, which limits his market dramatically given how few teams have openings there. On his production alone, he'd be a $15-20 million a year player, but I doubt he gets that much given the lack of demand at the position.

12. Jay Bruce, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 227
Career WAR: 18.9

Knee problems dating back to at least 2014 had robbed Bruce not just of any ability to play defense, but even much of his power -- it's hard to drive the ball if you can't generate power from your legs -- and it wasn't until this past season that he seemed to get back to 100 percent.

Bruce still can't hit lefties; his .222/.285/.433 line against southpaws in 2017 was better than his past few seasons, but in line with his career numbers and not really a sign of any sustainable improvement. He's also a poor defender even when healthy, probably better suited to DH and occasional outfield duty than to a regular role in the field. But now that he is healthy, Bruce looks a lot like he did at his peak, and would be excellent as the left-handed side of a platoon for someone on a two-year deal.

13. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 211
Career WAR: 11.4

Moustakas posted a 4-WAR season in 2015, when the Royals won the World Series, but it has been downhill since then; he missed almost all of 2016 with a knee injury and came back this year to post a .314 OBP, cutting his value in half. Both major advanced defensive metrics available to us, DRS and UZR, had his defensive production several runs below average this season as well.

Moustakas did hit 38 homers, topping his career high by 16, but that it came in the juiced-ball year makes the number a little suspect. He's still just 29, one of the youngest regulars available in free agency this winter, and perhaps another year removed from the season-ending right ACL tear will help him.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Royals

14. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 17.1

Chacin has pitched in the majors for parts of nine seasons, roughly five of them full ones, and has just over 1,000 career innings pitched with above-average results. Because of some ill-timed injuries, however, Chacin has earned over $2 million in just one season of his career, and made only $1.75 million from San Diego for his 2.4-win performance in 2017.

His sinker/slider approach isn't always pretty -- he walks more guys than you'd like and generally tries to pitch away from contact -- but it works, as he tends to keep the ball down and generates enough weak contact to be effective. There's some downside risk here, as he doesn't have a real plus pitch to generate swings-and-misses, but he has enough of a track record to treat him and pay him like a No. 3 starter.

15. Yonder Alonso, 1B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 7.9

Alonso went nuts in May, hitting .303/.425/.803 with 10 homers in 20 games … and then went back to something like his old self, with a .256/.353/.435 line from June 1 to the end of the season. This was much closer to his career line but with a little more power -- like everyone else in baseball. Alonso is still a cipher against left-handed pitching (.181/.263/.417 in 2017, .234/.303/.349 career) and a fringy defender at first base. As a platoon 1B/DH candidate, I'd give him $5-6 million on a one-year deal, but I can't buy into a one-month power spike as predictive of his long-term future.

16. Lance Lynn, RHP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 269
Career WAR: 14.9

Lynn missed 2016 because of Tommy John surgery in November 2015, and 17 months later he was in the Cardinals' Opening Day rotation, eventually tying for the NL lead in games started with 33. He wasn't all the way back, however, posting a career-high walk rate and career-low strikeout rate, although he switched up his pitch mix a little to throw more of his cutter/slider and rely less on his fastball.

The hope for any team signing Lynn is that another year removed from the surgery returns him to his 2012-15 form, when he was both consistent and valuable, worth about 3 wins above replacement per year. That's a $20 million-a-year starter in the open market if you believe he's durable enough now post-TJ to make 30-plus starts a season.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Cardinals

17. Jake McGee, LHP
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 7.6

Rob Arthur speculated in a September piece for FiveThirtyEight that the lower seams on the baseball since mid-2015 might have particularly hurt McGee, who had a miserable 2016 but returned to something more like his normal self in 2017.

He also returned to his previous style of pitching, throwing almost exclusively fastballs, almost completely junking his curveball and throwing his slider less often, which makes sense given that he pitched for Colorado, where pitches don't break as much as they might at sea level. His fastball is still plus and misses bats, and he's slightly better in his career against right-handed batters, so he's a full-inning guy rather than a lefty specialist. I think McGee is the best pure reliever on the market this winter, not likely to get closer money but more than worthy of it based on performance and stuff.

18. Jonathan Lucroy, C
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 20.2

Two years ago, Lucroy was one of the poster children -- or adults, I guess -- for catcher framing. A strong offensive catcher with a good defensive reputation, Lucroy was one of the best framing catchers in the game, further adding to his actual and perceived value and making the long-term deal he'd signed with Milwaukee as a young player even more of a bargain.

In 2017, Lucroy may have been the worst framing catcher in all of baseball. So did he forget how to do it? Is framing a skill you can lose overnight as you age? Or is framing less of a skill than we thought it was? I find it hard to believe Lucroy could be so good at something for years and then, at age 31, become the worst in the game at the same thing.

He similarly collapsed at the plate, other than his walk and strikeout rates, losing all his power and making very little hard contact. He may not be the .292/.355/.500 hitter he was in his peak year of 2016, but I'd bet on a bounce-back year from him in 2018 on offense and defense, given what an extreme outlier this past season was in every aspect of his game. The lack of every-day catching options on the market makes a gamble on Lucroy a little more attractive as well.

19. Lucas Duda, 1B/DH
Age: 31| B-T: L/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 256
Career WAR: 6.9

Duda has always been a walks and power sort of guy, with enough hard contact mixed in to keep his average respectable, but he was a bit unlucky in the batting average department in 2017, hitting for a lower average than you'd expect given the quality of contact he made. Duda had a pair of 3-win seasons in 2014-15 before a back injury wrecked his 2016, and I think he can get close to that again as long as that medical problem is behind him, a good value for even two years and $10 million or so a season.

20. Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 4.8

I think I speak for most fans when I ask: When did Anthony Swarzak get good? The 2004 second-rounder came into 2017 with a career 4.52 ERA, and was last seen giving up 10 homers in 31 innings for the Yankees in 2016. The White Sox signed him in the offseason to a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to major league camp, and working with pitching coach Don Cooper and the team's training staff helped bump up his velocity on both his fastball and slider to career highs.

Swarzak's two-pitch approach to right-handers is pretty simple -- sliders down and away, fastballs around the edges of the zone -- but he shows no platoon split even without a third pitch. Now 32, Swarzak will finally get the first seven-figure salary of his 14-year pro career, perhaps even seeing three-year offers in a weak reliever class, although I'd stop somewhere around two years and $12 million.

21. Jaime Garcia, LHP
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-2 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 10.8

Garcia started the year pitching well for Atlanta, was traded to the Twins, made one start, and then was traded to the Yankees, for whom he walked a man every other inning. Garcia is a high ground ball guy who gets hurt when he leaves the ball up, with chronically high home run rates when batters do get the ball in the air against him.

He has never had a single pitch you could call plus that generated swings-and-misses, but he'll show four weapons and has little platoon split, which is how he has worked as a starter even with modest strikeout rates. Garcia has had three major arm-related injuries in the past 10 years, including Tommy John surgery, shoulder surgery, and surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome. He went four straight years (2012-15) without coming close to a full season of pitching, although he has stayed healthy since his May 2016 return. There's some volatility here both in performance and expected workload, with some mid-rotation upside if you get a full, healthy season. But he's more likely a fourth or good fifth starter at this point, likely to give you about 2 wins above replacement -- maybe a two-year, $20-24 million guy.

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22. Mike Minor, LHP
Age: 29| B-T: R/L
HT: 6-4 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 6.7

Minor was an average-fastball guy in college who saw a velocity spike when he reached the majors, but he started to break down after two full years in the rotation. He missed 2015 and most of 2016 with injuries, then returned to the majors in 2017 as a reliever who dominated lefties and was very effective against righties, too.

Minor might be this year's Ryan Madson, another reliever who missed multiple seasons with injuries but returned to a new, more dominant level and parlayed it into a three-year deal.

23. CC Sabathia, LHP
Age: 37 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-6 | WT: 300
Career WAR: 60.7

His postseason performance notwithstanding, Sabathia has settled in as a solid back-end starter over the past three seasons, a bit homer-prone, missing fewer bats, sinking the ball more effectively and, the past two years, relying more on his defense to help him out.

He's 37 now and has missed a handful of starts since 2014, so a realistic projection would give him 150-160 innings rather than 180-plus, but I'm sanguine about his ability to repeat his overall results now that he's throwing more cutters in addition to his standard fastball/slider combination. He'll have to take a big salary cut to keep pitching, but I'd give him a one-year, $8-10 million deal in the hopes that he can give me 25 starts.

24. Neil Walker, 2B/1B
Age: 32 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 20.4

Walker faces a tough road in free agency, coming off two injury-plagued years and facing an unfriendly market. He has never been a good defender -- not at third when he was a prospect with Pittsburgh, not at second -- and that's only likely to get worse from here given his injury problems.

I think Walker can play first base, but there's not much demand at that spot and a fair amount of competition this winter. He's a switch-hitter but hasn't produced enough against lefties in his career to call him a regular at this point. He can hit right-handed pitching, getting on base and showing some pop, and can fill in as a backup at second or third (but not more). Otherwise he's a platoon first baseman during a winter where there are suitable regulars available in free agency, too.

25. Welington Castillo, C,
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 13.2

Castillo is a very good hitter for a catcher, an above-average thrower, and a poor pitch framer. In today's environment that last bit is going to weigh very heavily on how teams value him in the offseason market.

He's clearly good enough overall to catch every day, but probably not for a contender -- or, at least, he's the guy a contender would employ until they find someone better. Castillo is worth $10 million a year if you value all of his production together and figure he'll catch 120 games -- which, I might add, he has never actually done in pro ball -- but his limited track record and below-average framing capabilities will probably keep his salary below that.

26. Pat Neshek, RHP
Age: 37 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 221
Career WAR: 10.1

By fWAR, Neshek was the most valuable reliever in this free-agent class a year ago, and it was a remarkable season for the 37-year-old; he posted career bests in walk rate and FIP, his best strikeout rate since his rookie half-season in 2006, and, most impressive of all, allowed just three homers in 62 innings, a third of which came as a member of the Rockies.

Neshek even had a strong year against left-handed batters, although his career performance against them says it's not likely to continue -- it's not as if he added a third pitch this season -- and going forward he's going to be a right-handed specialist. Given his age, Neshek should be looking at one-year deals, but something slightly above the $6.5 million he made each of the past two seasons would make sense.

27. Austin Jackson, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 24.1

Jackson wrecked southpaws in 2017 for a .352/.440/.574 line, and was more than adequate against right-handers in limited duty. He's below average in center now, but adequate in a corner, and might be a good, cheap starter option for a team that doesn't want (or need) to spend on a left- or right-field solution, with maybe two-win upside if he gets 500 or more plate appearances.

28. David Hernandez, RHP
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 4.8

Yet another capable right-handed middle reliever in a market full of them. Hernandez did post his lowest-ever walk rate last year, and second-best strike percentage (strikes out of total pitches thrown), while also adding a new hard slider in the upper 80s that was also very effective, so I'm a bit more optimistic on Hernandez holding on to his improvements than I am for other pitchers in the group.

29. Juan Nicasio, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 255
Career WAR: 4.1

Nicasio never had the right pitch mix to start, but really thrived in relief over the past two seasons after a short, ill-fated stint in the Pirates' rotation, logging 128 innings out of the bullpen with 147 strikeouts, 36 walks, and a 3.16 ERA.

He still has just fastball/slider, but facing lefties once a game is a lot easier than facing them three times when you don't have a viable third pitch, although he's still likely to have some platoon split and probably should be replaced against elite left-handed batters. He's not a great high-leverage relief option but fits into the next tier of guys, worth a year and $4-5 million.

30. Jon Jay, OF
Age: 32 | B-T: L/L
HT: 5-11 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 13.1

Jay is a high BABIP, high-contact hitter who doesn't walk much or hit for any power, still capable of playing center on a part-time basis or a corner regularly, with just a modest platoon split for a left-handed hitter (90 percent of his career homers have come off RHP, but just 76 percent of his PA). At this point he's more tweener than every-day player, but a sound bench option for a contender with uncertainty at any outfield spot.

31. Wade Davis, RHP
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 11.5

Davis stayed more or less healthy in 2017, but wasn't the same guy he'd been for the pennant-winning Royals in 2014-15, with a little less velocity across the board and by far the highest walk rate of his major league career. His cutter is still plus and misses bats, but the reduced control is a serious impediment to using him as a high-leverage guy going forward. I could see someone giving him two years, hoping he'll return to form in 2018, but I don't have a concrete reason to argue that he'll do so.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Cubs

32. Greg Holland, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 11.3

Holland was worked way too hard in 2015 by Royals manager Ned Yost and eventually succumbed to a blown elbow, missing 2016 after Tommy John surgery, but came back as a solid, league-average reliever who led the NL in some useless category for the Rockies.

His stuff was fine, and it wasn't Coors Field that caused him trouble, but a combination of walks and hard contact. I might gamble a little that a second year removed from surgery could see him regain a half-grade of command, but the most likely outcome is that this is what he is, a good late-game option who's not ideal for the closer (or highest leverage) spot.

Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Rockies

33. Eduardo Nunez, Utility
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 3.8

Nunez hits like an infielder but can't play even average defense at second or third, and let's not even talk about his defense at short. He has one skill -- he puts the ball in play a lot -- and that has to carry him. So when he hits .300-plus, like he did in 2017, he's a useful player, a good bench guy who won't kill you if he ends up with 500 plate appearances filling in around the diamond. He walks once per solstice, he has no power, and his instincts are generally poor, so when he doesn't hit .300, you're not getting much value. The fact that he has been traded to contenders twice at the July deadline befuddles me.

34. Andrew Cashner, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 7.5

Cashner's 2017 season was one of the most surprising of any major league starter, as he stayed healthy for long enough to qualify for the ERA title -- something he'd done only twice in his career, and not since 2013 -- but also posted the second-worst strikeout rate of any qualifying starter, ahead only of San Francisco's Ty Blach.

Cashner's strikeout rate was also the lowest of his career by a huge margin, and his velocity has dropped by 4 mph from his peak in 2012. He also has never reached 150 innings in consecutive years. In a year when strikeout rates were at all-time highs, it's alarming to see a power pitcher suddenly stop missing bats. Given that and his health history, I'd be very wary of giving him anything more than a one-year deal -- and would look to moderate his workload to try to keep him healthy for a second straight season.

35. Jason Vargas, LHP
Age: 34 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-0 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 15.2

Vargas led the American League in wins this year, which means nothing, so forget I even mentioned it. His ERA was a half-run below his FIP this year, thanks to some help from his defense and a high strand rate, and the underlying scouting report isn't very positive -- his velocity is well below average, he's walking more guys, and he's relying more than ever on pitching away from his fastball.

He's a fifth starter, most likely, worth a one-year deal for whatever you think a win above replacement should earn.

36. Bryan Shaw, RHP
Age: 29 | B-T: B/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 6.2

Shaw threw his cutter about 88 percent of the time in 2017, and it was incredibly effective, even against left-handed hitters, enough that you could consider him as a setup option rather than a right-on-right guy, except perhaps against the best left-handed batters.

He has been durable, with 70 or more appearances in five straight seasons -- six, if you count the eight minor league appearances he made in 2012 -- and had a career-best ground ball rate this year. He's a one-win reliever, useful in high-leverage spots, the kind of guy who might get multiple years in a market without many elite relief options.

37. Joe Smith, RHP
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 12.0

Smith had one of his best seasons, with a career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk rate, in 2017, without a repeat of his troubles with the long ball from the previous season. As a low-slot right-hander, he has always had some trouble with lefties, but not quite enough to peg him strictly as a specialist.

This past year, he used his four-seamer up in the zone more often to generate swings and misses, which seems like a sustainable approach that could help him keep pace with traditional relievers who are posting huge whiff totals with pure stuff.

38. Jarrod Dyson, OF
Age: 33 | B-T: L/R
HT: 5-10 | WT: 160
Career WAR: 15.4

A below-average hitter without power who can still really run and play anywhere in the outfield. It's a little surprising his career BABIP isn't higher, given his speed, but at this point the former 50th-round pick -- that's not a typo -- is what he is: a very useful bench piece in the era of the 12-man pitching staff.

39. Yusmeiro Petit, RHP
Age: 28 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 255
Career WAR: 3.6

A perfect 12th man on a modern staff, Petit can go multiple innings and even make spot starts, but isn't really good enough for anyone's rotation. He throws a ton of strikes with fringy stuff, and is better served going through an order once given his reliance on deception and predilection for allowing home runs, but I'd be thrilled to get him on a one-year deal to fill out a bullpen.

40. Addison Reed, RHP
Age: 28 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 6.6

Serviceable, durable middle reliever with ninth-inning experience and an occasional home run problem. He sits in the low 90s now, not the mid- to upper 90s he showed as a prospect, and may have to continue to mix in more sliders if his velocity slips any further.

41. Tyler Chatwood, RHP
Age: 27 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 195
Career WAR: 9.2

I'll save you the trouble: Chatwood had much better results on the road (3.69 ERA), but it was all results on balls in play, as his walk, strikeout and home run rates were close to even, and he doesn't get left-handed hitters out anywhere.

Chatwood had a tremendous curveball as a prospect, and I wouldn't mind seeing some team at sea level sign him and see if the hammer is still in the toolbox … or the utility drawer in the kitchen with the paper clips and the stapler and the batteries and the stamps.

42. Alcides Escobar, SS
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 185
Career WAR: 10.7

From 2013-17, Escobar has the third-worst walk rate of any regular in baseball (minimum 1,500 PA), behind A.J. Pierzynski, now retired, and teammate Salvador Perez.

He doesn't hit for power and really doesn't steal as much as he could, so all his value is wrapped up in his glove, making him above replacement level but not by much. If there's any reason for hope, it's that he's still a high-contact guy, so perhaps a new coaching staff can work with him to put the ball in play with fewer fly balls. Otherwise, he's a starting shortstop for a bad team, or a defensive replacement off the bench for a good one.

43. Brett Anderson, LHP
Age: 29 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 6.8

Anderson has generally been effective when healthy, including a stellar 2015 season for the Dodgers, but threw just 11 innings in 2016 around injuries, and made a handful of starts for the Cubs in early 2017 while he wasn't physically 100 percent.

After the Cubs let him go and he went to Toronto, his stuff ticked back up, and his tenure for the Blue Jays was better than his stat line implies because of one disastrous start. Signing Anderson means there's a chance you get nothing, but a fair chance of 10-15 league-average starts if he's well enough to pitch.

44. John Lackey, RHP
Age: 39 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-6 | WT: 235
Career WAR: 38.0

Lackey is a durable fifth starter if you have a good defensive unit -- and probably not someone you want to sign if you don't. His slider was softer in 2017 and much less effective, and he has giving up more hard contact the past two years than he had before, including an NL-high 36 homers this past year.

The former second-round pick already has 38 career WAR by Baseball-Reference, fourth best in the 1999 draft class behind Jake Peavy, Carl Crawford, and some 13th-round pick named Pujols.

45. Brandon Phillips, 2B/3B
Age: 36 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 211
Career WAR: 30.9

He's not going to walk, but he continues to put the ball in play often enough to be a fringy regular at second base. Whether you think he's that or just a bench piece largely depends on what you think of his defense. Ultimate zone rating has him just a tick below average at second base (and above average at third), while defensive runs saved has him well below it. He'll play at a seasonal age of 37 in 2018, and could go off the offensive cliff at any point, but if you need a one-year stopgap at second base who can handle third in a pinch, he's worth a $4-5 million deal.

46. Matt Albers, RHP
Age: 34 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 4.7

Albers' 1.62 ERA last season was the result of a comically high strand rate -- 92.4 percent of his baserunners were left on base, the second-highest rate in the majors in 2017 and worlds apart from his 60 percent rate the year before -- but he was still a solid-average reliever even if you work that aspect of his performance out of his line. His velocity did tick up slightly this year, and his fastball was in turn more effective. Given his history as a starter, he seems like a good candidate for the multi-inning relief role we all discuss every October and forget about by spring.

47. Curtis Granderson, OF
Age: 36 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 45.8

Granderson shouldn't play the outfield regularly -- or irregularly -- at this point, but he can still hit right-handed pitching well enough to merit a roster spot as a platoon DH, regular pinch hitter, close-your-eyes-and-put-him-in-left sort of guy. He hit .214/.337/.470 off righties in 2017 and .241/.347/.479 off them in 2016, getting killed on BABIP by the shift and his extreme pull orientation, but he's still walking and hitting for power, enough to make him a solid reserve but no longer a regular at any spot.

48. Howie Kendrick, OF
Age: 34 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 30.5

How ye mighty have fallen, am I right? Kendrick was very highly rated as a prospect in the early 2000s, hitting .360-plus in four straight minor-league seasons before his debut in 2006, and then never hit .300 in any season where he amassed at least 400 PA in the big leagues. He did have a very solid season in part-time play in 2017 for the Phillies and Nats, at least at the plate, although he's now merely a competent left fielder who still hits like a traditional second baseman. He's a second-division regular, too good to just be a platoon player but not productive enough to start in left for a contender.

49. Fernado Rodney, RP
Age: 40 | B-T: R/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 7.3

Rodney will turn 41 in March, and he's maddening to watch much of the time, but he's maintained his effectiveness and stuff even as he's entered his fifth decade, still sitting mid-90s with good life and a plus changeup, walking way too many guys but generating enough groundballs and strikeouts to get away with it. I suppose there will just come a year when it all stops, but I couldn't tell you when that'll be. As a one-year cheap closer/setup option, you could probably do worse, but you'll have to stomach the risk that comes with signing any pitcher in his 40s.

50. Jeremy Hellickson , RHP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 203
Career WAR: 10

Hellickson was a 3-win pitcher in 2016, but totally lost his changeup -- his best pitch in most years -- in 2017 and became barely above replacement level for the Phillies and then the Orioles before he was shut down with a sore back in September. He's a flyball pitcher with fringy velocity for a right-hander, so you can expect a high home run rate. But when he's throwing strikes and missing enough bats like he did two seasons ago, there's value here. I would value him as a fifth starter, above replacement-level, who gives my team some chance (say 10-20 percent) that he'll be much closer to league average if he rediscovers his changeup.


Sorry it took so long to post...lol
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Jan 3 2018 05:49am
http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=17838

Pls.
Will be back daily with more of these
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Jan 3 2018 08:29am
1. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

By winning his second consecutive Cy Young Award in 2017 and his third overall, Scherzer has probably assured himself of election to the Hall of Fame one day, having checked the box for position pre-eminence. Wins and losses aren’t given weight by statistical analysts -- and no pitcher loves numbers more than Max Scherzer -- but over the past five seasons, he is 89-33 with an ERA of 2.87, and he’s compiled 1,092⅓ innings.

From Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information: Opponents batted .178 against Max Scherzer last season, the lowest mark by an National League pitcher in the live-ball era (since 1920). He led all NL pitchers in strikeouts, WHIP and WAR.

2. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Kluber still hasn’t talked about what ailed him during the Indians’ division series loss to the Yankees, and baseball’s most prominent stoic probably never will. But he just wasn’t the same, with his velocity and command diminished. He had owned hitters leading up to the postseason. From Langs: Kluber went on the disabled list with a back injury in May, and when he returned in June, he was the best pitcher in baseball the rest of the way. From June 1, he led MLB starting pitchers in wins (15), ERA (1.62), WHIP (0.76) and K/BB ratio (9.7).

With that four-month surge, Kluber managed to beat out Chris Sale for the AL Cy Young Award, and you could make a reasonable case that Kluber should be No. 1 on this list. Few pitchers can make a baseball move in the way Kluber does. His late, lateral movement and camouflaged delivery make it difficult for hitters to discern the trajectory and velocity of his pitches. Kluber led all starting pitchers in swing-and-miss rate last season at 15.6 percent.

3. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have already had conversations about altering the pace of his work after his experience in 2017. Sale was baseball’s best pitcher for a lot of the year, striking out 178 batters in 127⅔ innings before the All-Star break, stifling hitters with the combination of his mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider. But as those innings and pitches piled up for him, Sale’s slider seemed to flatten out down the stretch, and his results changed substantively: After allowing just 15 homers in the first five months of the season, he allowed nine in the last month. This sort of late-year fade has happened before in Sale’s career, so presumably the Red Sox will curtail his innings and pitches in the first half, maybe even eliminating a start or two, the way the Dodgers and Cubs have with some of their starters in recent years.

But regardless of how the Cy Young voting turned out, Sale probably would still win a poll of opposing hitters assessing the toughest pitcher to face, because there’s nobody like him, with the angle of his delivery and the elbows and knees and velocity he seems to fire toward the plate.

4. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

When Kershaw pitches, an evaluator noted, he continues to be as good as anyone ever. “But there’s no getting around the physical concerns, is there?” he asked rhetorically. “That’s two straight seasons he’s been out for an extended period.”

He pitched 175 innings in 27 starts in 2017, after working 149 innings in 21 starts in 2016. Kershaw, who turns 30 in March, hasn’t detailed his exact conditions for reporters, but there is an assumption among scouts and evaluators that his back/hip thing -- whatever it is -- probably will be regressive, especially for a pitcher as big as Kershaw; for someone who launches himself at hitters after pausing himself at the top of his delivery, pitch after pitch; and for someone who trains as hard as Kershaw does. There is uncertainty about how long he’ll pitch, a question that could play out at the end of next season, when he will have the opportunity to opt out of his contract.

For now, however, he continues to dominate. Last season, he led the NL in ERA for the fifth time in his 10-year career. He led in Adjusted ERA+ for the fourth time. He is the all-time leader among starting pitchers in that category, and it’s not even close.

5. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Think about this: Justin Verlander passed through waivers unclaimed last August. If the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and other big-market teams could do it over again, it's hard to imagine that Verlander would pass through again. In five September starts with the Astros he had a 1.06 ERA, then posting a 2.21 ERA in 36⅔ postseason innings. Last summer, the amount of money owed to Verlander scared some teams, given his intermittent struggles in the first half. But now, a two-year, $56 million deal -- the Astros’ commitment to him for 2018 and 2019 -- looks pretty good.

He turns 35 in February, but his average fastball velocity of 95.2 mph in 2017 was his highest since 2010. Verlander is devoted to physical conditioning and the idea of continuing as a power pitcher for years to come -- and he has made some adjustments in training and prestart preparation along the way -- so with 188 career wins, it’s possible that he could zoom past 200 next summer, on his way to Cooperstown.

From Langs: Verlander had the most valuable fastball in the majors in 2017, according to FanGraphs, worth 32.9 runs saved.

6. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

There was a lot of concern within the Giants organization about Bumgarner’s shoulder after his dirt bike accident last spring, but Bumgarner came back slightly ahead of schedule and pitched as effectively as ever, walking just 16 batters in 84 innings after the All-Star break. He’s 28, and with another strong season in 2018, the Giants will probably have to start negotiating his next contract in earnest. San Francisco holds a $12 million option on the lefty for 2019.

7. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Said one scout: “If your ranking was only about pure stuff, he’d be No. 1.” Clayton Kershaw has a great fastball, slider and curve, and similarly, there are other pitchers who have mastered two or three pitches. But Strasburg has four dominant pitches -- his fastball, slider, curve and changeup, all swing-and-miss pitches, all overpowering. The questions about Strasburg are always about health and endurance, and last year, he accumulated 175⅓ innings in 28 starts. His low home run rate reveals the difficulty that hitters have in trying to make aggressive contact.

From Langs: Strasburg led all qualified pitchers in homers per nine innings (0.7) and ranked first in the NL in fielding independent pitching (2.72).

8. Luis Severino, New York Yankees

OK, so he’s got some stuff to learn about pitching in the postseason, about controlling the October adrenaline. But during the summer, he was special, racking up 230 strikeouts in 193⅓ innings and holding opponents to a .266 on-base percentage. With Noah Syndergaard down for most of the year, Severino became the hardest-throwing starter in the majors, with an average fastball velocity of 97.6 mph. Most starting pitchers have become sprinters, throwing as hard as they can from the first inning and gradually losing stuff, but Severino could be like his generation’s Verlander, with an ability to maintain or even increase his velocity in the late innings. Like the Rockies’ pitchers, Severino’s numbers will probably always be skewed by his time in Yankee Stadium: Last year, he had a 2.24 ERA in road starts with only six homers allowed in 96⅓ innings, as compared to 3.71 and 15 homers in his outings at home.

9. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

The right-hander has two dominant off-speed pitches, his slider and changeup. On the strength of those, only Corey Kluber and Chris Sale had better strikeout-to-walk ratios in the American League than Carrasco did last season, in the most complete performance of his career -- in his ninth year with the Cleveland organization. Remember, it was during the 2009 season that the Indians insisted the Phillies include him in their trade of star lefty Cliff Lee, and it wasn’t until Carrasco was 28 years old that he threw enough innings in a season to qualify for the league’s ERA title. But through his work with former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway, Carrasco has become one of baseball’s most refined starting pitchers.


From Langs: His changeup was the second-most valuable changeup in 2017 behind Jason Vargas, according to FanGraphs -- he generated 18.1 runs saved with the pitch.

10. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Through the layers of Mets injuries and last season, deGrom was consistent, usually pitching into the seventh or eighth inning. He had two really ugly turns, against the Brewers and Rangers in the first third of the season, but after that deGrom was locked in, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 16 of his last 20 outings. Keep in mind that this was all happening in spite of the Mets’ horrific glove work -- the Mets ranked dead last in the majors in defensive runs saved. With a bit more help and a more competitive team, deGrom could climb in these rankings.

Best of the rest

• Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs. Paul Hembekides of ESPN Stats & Information argued strongly for his inclusion in the top 10. “He has been elite in run prevention and has pitched great in leverage over the last two seasons, and despite his relatively low strikeout rates, Statcast metrics view him as a top-10 pitcher because of his ability to suppress contact.”

• Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks. He will climb past 2,500 career innings in 2018, with his command as good as ever -- he had 45 walks and 215 strikeouts in 202⅓ innings last season.

• Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets. Injuries limited him to just seven starts last season. If he makes it through a full season again, he’ll be back on this list, given the dominance of his stuff.

• Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros. The left-hander is dealing with a foot problem this offseason, after apparently working through the issue late in the 2017 season. When he’s OK physically, he’s Cy Young caliber, and he has a lot on the line in 2018, with free agency looming.

• Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks. He altered the tempo of his delivery midseason, and that change seemed to improve the effectiveness of his fastball and propel him into the upper echelon of starting pitchers.
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Jan 3 2018 05:43pm
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Jan 4 2018 08:25am
Here is our list of the top 10 relievers, based on the input of evaluators, with help from Sarah Langs, Paul Hembekides and Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:

1. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Maybe the most shocking moment in baseball in 2017 occurred in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the World Series, when Marwin Gonzalez lifted an opposite-field home run off Jansen to tie the score. It was akin to Kirk Gibson's stunning Dennis Eckersley with a home run in the 1988 World Series and to the Red Sox's tying the score against Mariano Rivera in Game 4 of the 2004 AL Championship Series -- because of the greatness of the pitcher. Like Eckersley, like Rivera, Jansen routinely gives opponents nothing: no baserunners, no solid contact, no sliver of hope.

In 68⅓ innings in the regular season last season, Jansen allowed only seven walks and struck out 109. That strikeout-to-walk ratio of 15.57 was the best in the majors. Jansen relies on the cut fastball, and his rate last season was even higher than the single-season best of Rivera (12.83), the original Cutter Master.

“If you rated trust -- who would you most trust with a lead -- he’d be your guy,” one evaluator said of Jansen.

2. Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

He was healthy again and created one of the best seasons by any reliever in any year last season, with the hitters telling you everything about the difficulty of trying to cope with his stuff. He faced 254 batters and struck out 126, almost exactly half. His strikeout percentage of 49.6 percent was by far the best in baseball. He had the highest rate of swing-and-miss by any pitcher in the majors last season, at 19.8 percent. Opponents batted only .140 against him, the lowest rate in the AL, and that 49.6 percent strikeout rate wasn’t just MLB’s best last season. It was also the highest ever, shattering Eric Gagne’s record (44.8 percent) by a reliever with at least 65 innings.

3. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians

Even while fighting some knee trouble that affected his command, Miller continued to be baseball’s most dominant left-handed reliever, striking out 95 of the 244 batters he faced, with an Adjusted ERA+ of 319. He’ll be a free agent next fall, and odds are that Miller, who will be 33 years old in May, will be making a whole lot more than that $9 million salary that moved the bar the last time he was a free agent.

4. Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies

In a winter in which bullpen guys have been well-paid, he was paid the highest salary ever for a reliever, at $17.33 million annually, when he got a three-year, $52 million deal, with a vesting option for a fourth year that’s very makeable if he stays healthy. The difference between Davis and the rest of the relievers in the market? He has proven his dominance in the role of closer. Over the past four seasons, Davis has an ERA of 1.45, with nine homers and 313 strikeouts in 241⅓ innings. His strikeout rate of 12.1 last season was the second-best of his career.

5. Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers

He started the year as a setup man for the Brewers but graduated into the role of closer, and by season’s end, he was the rare workhorse closer: He compiled 39 saves while leading the National League in appearances with 76. He does not give in to hitters, which is why he doesn’t allow many home runs (just six last season) and why, in part, he’ll give up more than his share of walks (40). Knebel’s curveball was among the highest rated, for value, in the big leagues.

6. Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks

Like Wade Davis earlier in his career, Bradley seemed transformed by his move to the bullpen. He evolved from a starting pitcher who gave up a lot of hits to a dominant reliever, with his average fastball climbing from 92.4 mph to 96.4 mph. As with Dellin Betances, there is an enormous gap in velocity between his fastball and his primary off-speed pitch, which makes him difficult to time.

“He looks like a different guy,” a rival NL executive said. “His confidence shows now. He is sure he can do this [job].”

Despite pitching in the homer haven in Arizona, Bradley allowed just four long balls in 73 innings last season.

7. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

He’s still really, really good, and last season, he punched out 69 hitters in 50⅓ innings. But his pure stuff seemed to regress somewhat last season, and Chapman, who turns 30 in February, might never be quite as overpowering as he has been in the past. According to FanGraphs, the value of his fastball fell from 18.6 in 2016 to 9.2 in 2017. Chapman altered his fastball late in the season because he felt that the ball was cutting on him too much, and he was better after that.

8. Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals

In an era in which hitters have worked to changed their launch angles and get low pitches into the air, Doolittle cuts up hitters in the upper part of the strike zone with his fastball -- and hitters have clearly struggled to adjust. According to FanGraphs, Doolittle threw fastballs at the fourth-highest rate in 2017 but surrendered the lowest rate of hard contact by any reliever in the majors in 2017. That’ll work. The Nationals’ closer situation finally seems settled for the foreseeable future because Doolittle’s deal contains options that run through the 2020 season.

9. David Robertson, New York Yankees

According to the system used by FanGraphs, Robertson’s curveball had the greatest value of any off-speed pitch deployed by any pitcher last season, and it worked for him. He had the lowest WHIP of his career, at 0.85, and allowed only 35 hits in 68⅓ innings, including just 14 hits and two homers in 35 innings after he was traded to the Yankees.

10. Chad Green, New York Yankees

The Yankees’ right-hander is a classic example of how spin rate makes a difference. His average fastball velocity of 96 mph -- pretty good in this era but nothing special -- apparently looks different to hitters than that of a lot of other relievers, given his effectiveness. His spin rate of 2,490 rpm is higher than that of any reliever on this list, and last season, Green seemed to just throw the ball past hitters through the middle of the zone. He allowed only 34 hits in 69 innings, with an FIP of 1.75.

From Sarah Langs, Green's holding opponents to a .440 OPS tied for the lowest among all relievers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, matching the mark of Andrew Miller and edging Craig Kimbrel’s (.444).

Best of the rest
• Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians: Mark Simon notes that just three pitchers have 30 saves in each of the past three seasons: Jansen, Kimbrel and Allen.

• Felipe Rivero, Pittsburgh Pirates: If the Pirates trade Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison, if would make sense for them to also deal Rivero, who is coveted by rival evaluators because of his incredible changeup.

• Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays: The Toronto closer presents something of a quandary because the numbers indicate that he belongs in the top-10 list. Osuna finished last season third in fWAR among all relievers with more than 20 innings, and he was ninth in xFIP and had the third-lowest walk rate. But he really struggled after the All-Star break, blowing six of his 23 save chances. Maybe it was his heavy workload at an early age: Osuna racked up 207⅔ innings during the 2015-2017 seasons, the most by any full-time closer. Maybe the slump was related to an anxiety issue that Osuna spoke of last June.

Maybe this was just a blip, the sort of thing that Brad Lidge and other elite closers have overcome, or maybe it was something more than that.

• Tommy Kahnle, New York Yankees: He conquered his past command trouble and notched 96 strikeouts in 62⅔ innings in 2017.

• Dellin Betances, New York Yankees: By the end of last year’s American League Championship Series, his manager stopped using him in meaningful situations because he couldn’t throw strikes. But this is how good Betances is, how difficult he is to hit: Twenty-nine other teams would love to have the opportunity to get him back on track. “Hell, we’d take him,” a rival manager said last season. “Think they’d move him?”

He’s 6-foot-8 and throws 98 mph, with a breaking ball about 12-15 mph slower, which means that the best hope for a lot of hitters is that Betances will lose the strike zone and they’ll draw a walk. Last season, Betances generated the highest rate of soft contact, and it wasn’t close.

The Yankees have the bullpen depth to cover for Betances if he cannot recover his command in 2018, and really, he has more to lose than they do. If he bounces back, he will be the No. 1 free-agent reliever available after the 2019 season, at age 31, with tens of millions of dollars at stake.

• Pat Neshek, Philadelphia Phillies: He continues to dominate hitters with his slider.

• Brad Hand, San Diego Padres: He was available for trade throughout the 2017 season, and no team stepped up to give San Diego GM A.J. Preller what he was looking for. Now Hand’s value has seemingly gone up after another season of refined excellence.
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Jan 4 2018 08:27am
The position of catcher is changing as much as or more than all others, including that of starting pitcher. With that in mind, here are the top 10 catchers:
1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

After Posey was helped off the field in May of 2011 with a shattered ankle, manager Bruce Bochy wondered if Posey would be the same, or if a great career had just been altered in an unnecessary collision. But Posey would come back, and he’s in the midst of an extended reign as the game’s best catcher. Posey has played in 140 or more games in every season since his injury, and last year he batted .320 with an .861 OPS.

Some evaluators believe that last season Posey coped with nagging injuries that may have affected his power. But once again, he was the Giants’ most consistent offensive threat, with a .400 on-base percentage, and he ranked in the upper third of catchers in at least one pitch-framing metric, despite not having the advantage of working with Madison Bumgarner for half a season because of the lefty’s dirt-bike accident. Posey continues to be highly regarded by opposing scouts for his ability to call a game.

Next season will be Posey’s 10th in the majors, qualifying him for Hall of Fame consideration, and his résumé to this point is gaudy: a .308 lifetime batting average, a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP award, five All-Star appearances and three championship hugs at the moment the Giants won a World Series.

From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information: Buster Posey has been worth 32.3 WAR since the start of 2012. The next-best catcher is Yadier Molina at 21.3 -- a difference in WAR of 11. From Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information: He has a higher batting average and OPS through this many career games (1,039) than Johnny Bench.

2. Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

It’s as if the Yankees are repeating history with their catcher. Back in the late '90s, the front office believed strongly in the offensive capability of catcher Jorge Posada, thinking that a switch-hitter with power at that position would outweigh any concerns about his defense. Manager Joe Torre and bench coach Don Zimmer, on the other hand, really valued the leadership and glove work of light-hitting veteran Joe Girardi. In order to force Torre to play Posada, the front office let Girardi walk away as a free agent after the 1999 season and signed journeyman Chris Turner as a backup.

Almost two decades later, there are serious concerns about the defense of the Yankees’ catcher again. Gary Sanchez dropped or missed a bunch of pitches last season and had trouble blocking balls in the dirt, and Girardi -- the Yankees’ manager the past decade -- benched Sanchez for a time, seemingly to reinforce the idea that Sanchez needed to constantly devote himself to improving. Going into 2018, the Yankees’ hope is that Sanchez will get better through weight loss and the staff changes.

Either way, however, Sanchez will always have extraordinary value because he’s the best-hitting catcher. From Langs: He had a 4.1 WAR in 2017, most among catchers. From Paul Hembekides: Sanchez’s 142 wRC+ over the past two seasons is better than Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt, among others. And for whatever it's worth, he ranked fourth among 29 qualifiers in catcher ERA (3.43) last season.

3. J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins

Realmuto has a reputation for being very serious about his work, so it’s not surprising that he wants out of Miami and off a team that won’t win for a long time. And other clubs will probably line up to make a run at him if and when the Marlins start to market him in earnest.

From Hembo: His pitch framing is below average (albeit slightly), but he was seventh in blocking runs last season and has thrown out 34 percent of base stealers since 2016 (league average is 27 percent). Coupled with an underrated bat (109 OPS+ over the past two seasons) and an ability to run (28 steals over the past three seasons), the entire package is very desirable.

From Simon: His offensive successes make up for his defensive deficiencies -- and keep in mind he went from minus-13 defensive runs saved in 2016 to minus-5 in 2017, so he’s getting better. His five pickoffs were one shy of the MLB lead last season.

4. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

He drives opponents -- and probably some teammates, as well -- nuts with what they perceive to be his over-the-top body language, but nobody could ever, ever question his passion for his work. “He cares about winning as much as anyone I’ve ever seen,” said one longtime scout last summer. Within a year or two, he could be the best all-around catcher in baseball if he cleans up the more subtle skills in his defense. The Cubs’ offense seemed transformed when he moved into the cleanup spot last summer, before Contreras got hurt, and in 117 games he had 42 extra-base hits and a .356 OBP.

From Langs: Contreras hit .305 with .993 OPS in the second half after .261 with .782 OPS in the first half.

5. Brian McCann, Houston Astros

His streak of consecutive seasons with at least 20 homers came to an end, but McCann was lauded by teammates for his leadership from spring training onward and guided the Astros to a World Series title in October. He earned praise from the Houston staff for his pitch-calling, especially with Lance McCullers Jr., Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton in critical spots in the postseason. McCann turns 34 in February, and he is one of baseball’s primary defensive-shift targets when he hits, but he continues to be a good offensive catcher -- he had a .759 OPS in 97 games last season and needs just 37 homers to reach 300 for his career.

6. Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds

He is a pretty average offensive hitter, with an Adjusted OPS+ last season of 96 while playing in the hitters’ haven in Cincinnati. But Barnhart was an impact defender, throwing out the highest rate of opposing baserunners attempting to steal last season (44 percent) and scoring so well in other metrics that he was awarded the NL Gold Glove Award. “He is as good as there is behind the plate,” said an NL scout. Langs offered this great note: Barnhart had a 2.8 dWAR -- defensive WAR -- in 2017, most among all NL players and second in MLB (Andrelton Simmons was first, at 4.2).

7. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

Every year, the Cardinals discuss the possibility of using him in fewer games, and every year Molina pushes back, prepares to play as much as possible and winds up starting the vast majority of the games (when he’s not on the disabled list). The 35-year-old started a staggering 133 games last year and had his second-best season of power production with 18 homers, and was named to the All-Star team for the eighth time. Rival evaluators thought that on some days he struggled to move effectively behind the plate and block balls in the dirt. While Molina does not shut down opponents in the run game the way he used to, he continues to be effective in throwing out runners.

8. Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners

He bounced back in a big way last season after spending a lot of 2016 in the minors and finished with an Adjusted OPS+ of 123 on the strength of 25 homers and a .509 slugging percentage. From Simon: Zunino hit .328/.418/.639 in his last 40 games (dating to Aug. 11). His slugging percentage was eighth-best in MLB among those with at least 100 at-bats in that span, and he’s a good pitch-framer.

9. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, he almost seems like a dinosaur at this position, and because Perez is a legacy player for the Royals and under contract through 2021, it’s reasonable to wonder if he’ll continue to get more and more playing time at DH rather than catcher. Of his 129 games last season, 13 were at DH, a career high for the 27-year-old, and he had the best year in home-run production, with 27. He fared poorly in defensive metrics like pitch-framing, again, and threw out the lowest rate of opposing base-stealers (27 percent) since his rookie season.

10. Martin Maldonado, Los Angeles Angels

He is to the American League what Barnhart is to the NL, as the most dominant defender. Maldonado ranked among the leaders in pitch-framing, and he threw out 39 percent of opposing baserunners, much higher than the league average of 27 percent. He won the Gold Glove Award, and on offense he kicked in 14 homers.

Best of the rest
• Tyler Flowers, Atlanta Braves: He ranked first in at least one pitch-framing metric last season -- by far -- but because the Braves basically split the catching duties between Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, it’s difficult to put him in the Top 10. He played in 85 games behind the plate last season. But Hembekides makes a good case here: “Baseball Prospectus estimates that his framing was worth 26 runs in 2017 alone, a huge part of their WARP formula. By that measure, he was the 13th-best position player in baseball last season (among Marcell Ozuna and Justin Turner).”

• Austin Barnes and Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers: Grandal lost his job to Barnes in the postseason last year, so it’s difficult to justify ranking him over Barnes here. Barnes has fewer than 500 plate appearances in the big leagues, but the Dodgers have big plans for him moving forward. From Hembo: His .408 OBP last season ranked ninth in the majors (minimum 250 plate appearances), and when you consider his minor league slash line (.299/.388/.439), you know those numbers aren’t a fluke.
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