Last year's free-agent class was the worst I'd ever seen, so we could only go up from there -- and we have, as the top tier this winter is substantially better than last year's, and the rankings aren't quite so reliant on relievers and bench guys. The class is still overpopulated with the first-base/DH/oh-God-I-hope-we-don't-have-to-play-him-in-left-field types, many of whom have long-standing platoon splits. But that seems to be a regular feature of free agency at this point, especially as teams turn away from long-term deals for average corner bats and try to develop younger, cheaper ones internally.
As usual, there's a ton of money out there in search of players. With these rankings, I try to provide a rough idea of the offer I'd be comfortable making to each player if I were the general manager of a contending team (or would-be contending team) and operating at or above the median payroll level. Estimating the actual dollar value of a player to any specific team is nearly impossible, because we don't know what the marginal revenue product of a win is for each club, and that number can change for a team from season to season, or even within a season, if it's much better or worse than expected.
My numbers are not predictions, and they often will fall short of actual market values. That is due to the "winner's curse" phenomenon, in which the winner of an auction for a good player of uncertain value is the bidder whose internal estimates are the highest (and thus perhaps too optimistic). Teams with large payrolls can and often do pay more for a win in the free-agent market.
This document will be updated as the offseason wears on. When a player signs, we'll add a note in the profile as to which team he signed with and for how much. We'll also add a note if he received a $17.4-million qualifying offer. If a player receives one and signs elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick, and having a qualifying offer "attached" can really hurt the value of non-elite free agents.
I have excluded Nippon Professional Baseball superstar Shohei Otani for now, as there's no evidence yet to say he's going to be posted this winter. He doesn't have an agent, and he had surgery last month to repair a posterior impingement in an ankle that bothered him all season.
If he is posted this winter, he'll be subject to MLB's (ridiculous, myopic) caps on international free agents that normally apply to 16-year-old amateurs. If he were to wait two more seasons and join the majors after 2019, however, he would be a completely unrestricted free agent. The difference in compensation would likely be more than $100 million, so he has strong incentive to get healthy, pitch well for two years, and then come over for a huge windfall.
If, however, he is posted this winter, I will add him to this list at No. 1 (strictly as a pitcher).
Now, on to the rankings ...
1. Yu Darvish, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 216
Career WAR: 19.3
Darvish has averaged 4.5 WAR per 31 starts over his career, which was interrupted by Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015 and much of 2016, but he has altered his pitching style since his return and, until his trade to the Dodgers, had settled at a lower level of performance than his previous ace-like self.
He amped up the use of his cutter and trimmed the use of his slider, giving him a better weapon to get left-handed batters out, and while I'd still like to see the return of his changeup (or even his splitter), he's at least approaching a pitch mix that should limit his platoon splits and keep hitters from squaring up his four-seamer.
Darvish's awful showing in two World Series games -- possibly the result of tipping his pitches -- won't help his free-agent case any, but I'd be surprised if it did more than shave a tiny bit off the top. When you sign a free agent, you're signing him for his projected regular-season output, with the hope that your team first reaches the postseason and then he can contribute there too. You sign Darvish because you're hoping for 30-32 starts of above-average pitching from April to September. Teams that back off because of two bad (OK, atrocious) outings in the World Series are letting recency bias overrule their rational judgment.
2. Lorenzo Cain, CF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-2 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 27.8
Much of Cain's value has been wrapped up in his defense, which has slipped over the past two years and is unlikely to improve again now that he's entering his age-32 season. The team signing him should expect an average defensive center fielder who hits for average with modest power and OBP, probably a solid-average every-day player who might deliver 12 WAR over a four-year deal.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Royals
3. Zack Cozart, SS
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 204
Career WAR: 16.5
Talk about having a big walk year -- Cozart hit 24 homers, 50 percent higher than his previous best, en route to setting career highs across the board offensively, the function of making harder contact than he had before (and maybe some help from the baseball), and did it all despite playing in just 122 games.
He's also 32, and probably only declines from here on offense and defense (which is still plus), especially in the power department. Shortstops who can hit at all are so scarce that he's probably worth an overpayment relative to pure statistical projections, on the chance that you get one or more All-Star years from him before he regresses. It's hard to believe, and he may not get there, but he's probably worth $24 million a year on a three- or even four-year deal.
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 20.3
Arrieta finally reaches free agency this year entering his age-32 season, late for a starter and especially so for one drafted out of college, but years of mishandling in the Baltimore system set him back to the point where he never developed as a starter until he went to the Cubs in a mid-2013 trade.
He peaked in his Cy Young-winning 2015 season, both in performance and workload, but has seen his velocity slip since and then missed a few starts this year with a hamstring injury. He could return to his peak form, but I wouldn't bet on it, not given his age, loss of velocity and diminishing control. You sign Arrieta hoping for a mid-rotation starter who can take the ball 31 times, which itself is worth $20 million a year, but if anyone pays him as if he's still an ace, they're taking on an unacceptable risk.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Cubs
5. Carlos Santana, 1B
Age: 31 | B-T: B/R
HT: 5-11 | WT: 210
Career WAR: 24.5
I think the biggest surprise with Santana is that he has turned into a competent first baseman. A catcher for the first three years of his MLB career, Santana hasn't logged an inning behind the plate since 2014, but he has turned out to be more than just playable at first. That matters in a market saturated with designated hitters and guys who should move to DH.
Santana has been very consistent at the plate over his career, walking often and striking out at about the same rate (even as league strikeout rates have risen, his has dropped), and hitting for modest power. He's had an OBP between .357 and .377 for six straight seasons. He played in 143 games in 2012, and has played in 152 or more in every year since, hitting at least 19 homers in each of the past five seasons. The knock on Santana is that he doesn't make a ton of hard contact, so it's not as if you can project a power surge or sudden spike in his average. I do think he'll hold the value he has for a while, so a four-year, $60 million deal would be reasonable, maybe a little low in light of his consistency and durability.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Indians
6. J.D. Martinez, OF/DH
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 221
Career WAR: 13.7
If all Martinez ever had to do was hit -- never field, never run, never go anywhere but to and from the batter's box -- he might be a six-win player and the best free agent on the market. Martinez, who remade his swing after the Astros released him in March 2014, has become a fairly patient hitter who makes consistently high-quality contact.
He's more than just a home run hitter, although I'm sure that's how he'll be sold this offseason. He's entering his age-30 season and has negative defensive value, to the point where I'd look at him as a primary DH who can play left field on an occasional basis, and hope for some 5-WAR seasons at the start of any long-term deal. He is the type of player who, over MLB history, has declined faster than players who play defense well or are better athletes, so while the market will probably give him five years, the end of the deal will probably see a big drop-off in production.
7. Eric Hosmer, 1B
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
Career WAR: 14.1
Which Hosmer are you buying if you sign him as a free agent this winter -- the guy who produced about 30 batting runs in the past five months of 2017, or the guy who produced about 30 batting runs in total over the first 900 games of his career?
Hosmer is young enough that this could just be a delayed breakout from a former top prospect (No. 3 overall pick in 2008, my No. 5 overall prospect going into 2011), but I'm always skeptical of walk-year spikes in performance. Just ask the Angels how that Gary Matthews Jr. deal worked out.
I could see giving Hosmer four years and $60 million to $70 million given his youth and the possibility that he's really a four-win player going forward, but paying even that much to a player who was replacement level as recently as 2016 should make any GM nervous.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Royals
8. Alex Cobb, RHP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 205
Career WAR: 10.9
Cobb came back from Tommy John surgery a different pitcher, as his changeup hasn't had the same action post-injury, leading him to rely more on his curveball than his change. That didn't lead to a visible platoon split in 2017, but there are warning signs in his splits, including a lower K rate and higher walk rate against lefties, that could indicate trouble going forward.
He also has never reached 180 innings in any pro season, as this year's 179⅓ was a career high, as were the 29 starts he made in 2017. Previously a potential No. 3 with his command and the out-pitch potential of the changeup, he's more of a back-end starter now with some durability questions, but you could still dream a little of some greater upside if a new environment or coach can help him regain some of what he lost on the third pitch.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Rays
9. Todd Frazier, 3B
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 22.0
Frazier hasn't been quite as productive since he left Cincinnati after the 2015 season, as he hit for more power in the Reds' cozy home park and for a higher average/OBP there as well. While Frazier suddenly became more patient in 2017, especially after his trade to the Yankees in July, he's not making much hard contact anymore, which was behind his career-worst .227 BABIP this year (the fourth time in five years he was under .280) and his drop-off to 27 homers after hitting 40 and 35 the previous two seasons.
His defensive metrics have wavered in the past few seasons, but he has been slightly above average for most of his career, and I don't see any physical reason he would lose that anytime soon. In today's game, there's a place for a regular who can play a skill position and post a low-.300s OBP with 25 to 30 homers. He was worth about 3.0 wins in 2017, but given the anomalous walk rate and his age (32 in 2018), I'd want to pay him more in the range of 2 to 2.5 wins per year instead.
10. Carlos Gomez, OF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 25.6
He didn't hit left-handed pitching at all in 2017, an outlier in his career and a trait extremely unlikely to endure for a right-handed hitter. (Reverse platoon splits for right-handed batters almost never last.) The part that's hard to believe if you watch Gomez now is that he's just an average runner; he used to be at least a 70 runner, and averaged 37 steals a year from 2012 to 2014, but that guy is long gone. Even MLB's Sprint Speed metric, which shows the fastest one-second interval recorded by Statcast for each player, has him just around the middle of the pack.
That has made him an average defender in center, rather than the plus-plus defender he once was, and he's not as durable as he was in Milwaukee, either. That said, he's one of the only solid-average every-day center fielders available in free agency, so even if you assume there's no return to any of the skills he showed before he was traded to Houston, he's probably a $15 million per year player, even after his fall from All-Star heights.
11. Logan Morrison, 1B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-2 | WT: 240
Career WAR: 5.2
Morrison's 2016 season was marred by a tear in his wrist that eventually required surgery, but he came back strong on a bargain deal with the Rays, hitting 38 homers and producing 3.6 bWAR for just $2.5 million. He also set career highs in walks and OBP, demonstrating the patience he'd shown as a prospect in the Marlins' system seven-plus years ago.
Morrison had the highest hard-contact rate of his career this season and worked to put the ball in the air a lot more frequently, both to hit for power and to defeat the shift against him. He has played some left field but should be playing only first base at this point, which limits his market dramatically given how few teams have openings there. On his production alone, he'd be a $15-20 million a year player, but I doubt he gets that much given the lack of demand at the position.
12. Jay Bruce, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 227
Career WAR: 18.9
Knee problems dating back to at least 2014 had robbed Bruce not just of any ability to play defense, but even much of his power -- it's hard to drive the ball if you can't generate power from your legs -- and it wasn't until this past season that he seemed to get back to 100 percent.
Bruce still can't hit lefties; his .222/.285/.433 line against southpaws in 2017 was better than his past few seasons, but in line with his career numbers and not really a sign of any sustainable improvement. He's also a poor defender even when healthy, probably better suited to DH and occasional outfield duty than to a regular role in the field. But now that he is healthy, Bruce looks a lot like he did at his peak, and would be excellent as the left-handed side of a platoon for someone on a two-year deal.
13. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Age: 29 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 211
Career WAR: 11.4
Moustakas posted a 4-WAR season in 2015, when the Royals won the World Series, but it has been downhill since then; he missed almost all of 2016 with a knee injury and came back this year to post a .314 OBP, cutting his value in half. Both major advanced defensive metrics available to us, DRS and UZR, had his defensive production several runs below average this season as well.
Moustakas did hit 38 homers, topping his career high by 16, but that it came in the juiced-ball year makes the number a little suspect. He's still just 29, one of the youngest regulars available in free agency this winter, and perhaps another year removed from the season-ending right ACL tear will help him.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Royals
14. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Age: 29 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 17.1
Chacin has pitched in the majors for parts of nine seasons, roughly five of them full ones, and has just over 1,000 career innings pitched with above-average results. Because of some ill-timed injuries, however, Chacin has earned over $2 million in just one season of his career, and made only $1.75 million from San Diego for his 2.4-win performance in 2017.
His sinker/slider approach isn't always pretty -- he walks more guys than you'd like and generally tries to pitch away from contact -- but it works, as he tends to keep the ball down and generates enough weak contact to be effective. There's some downside risk here, as he doesn't have a real plus pitch to generate swings-and-misses, but he has enough of a track record to treat him and pay him like a No. 3 starter.
15. Yonder Alonso, 1B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/R
HT: 6-1 | WT: 220
Career WAR: 7.9
Alonso went nuts in May, hitting .303/.425/.803 with 10 homers in 20 games … and then went back to something like his old self, with a .256/.353/.435 line from June 1 to the end of the season. This was much closer to his career line but with a little more power -- like everyone else in baseball. Alonso is still a cipher against left-handed pitching (.181/.263/.417 in 2017, .234/.303/.349 career) and a fringy defender at first base. As a platoon 1B/DH candidate, I'd give him $5-6 million on a one-year deal, but I can't buy into a one-month power spike as predictive of his long-term future.
16. Lance Lynn, RHP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-5 | WT: 269
Career WAR: 14.9
Lynn missed 2016 because of Tommy John surgery in November 2015, and 17 months later he was in the Cardinals' Opening Day rotation, eventually tying for the NL lead in games started with 33. He wasn't all the way back, however, posting a career-high walk rate and career-low strikeout rate, although he switched up his pitch mix a little to throw more of his cutter/slider and rely less on his fastball.
The hope for any team signing Lynn is that another year removed from the surgery returns him to his 2012-15 form, when he was both consistent and valuable, worth about 3 wins above replacement per year. That's a $20 million-a-year starter in the open market if you believe he's durable enough now post-TJ to make 30-plus starts a season.
Rejected $17.4-million qualifying offer from Cardinals
17. Jake McGee, LHP
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-3 | WT: 230
Career WAR: 7.6
Rob Arthur speculated in a September piece for FiveThirtyEight that the lower seams on the baseball since mid-2015 might have particularly hurt McGee, who had a miserable 2016 but returned to something more like his normal self in 2017.
He also returned to his previous style of pitching, throwing almost exclusively fastballs, almost completely junking his curveball and throwing his slider less often, which makes sense given that he pitched for Colorado, where pitches don't break as much as they might at sea level. His fastball is still plus and misses bats, and he's slightly better in his career against right-handed batters, so he's a full-inning guy rather than a lefty specialist. I think McGee is the best pure reliever on the market this winter, not likely to get closer money but more than worthy of it based on performance and stuff.
18. Jonathan Lucroy, C
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-0 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 20.2
Two years ago, Lucroy was one of the poster children -- or adults, I guess -- for catcher framing. A strong offensive catcher with a good defensive reputation, Lucroy was one of the best framing catchers in the game, further adding to his actual and perceived value and making the long-term deal he'd signed with Milwaukee as a young player even more of a bargain.
In 2017, Lucroy may have been the worst framing catcher in all of baseball. So did he forget how to do it? Is framing a skill you can lose overnight as you age? Or is framing less of a skill than we thought it was? I find it hard to believe Lucroy could be so good at something for years and then, at age 31, become the worst in the game at the same thing.
He similarly collapsed at the plate, other than his walk and strikeout rates, losing all his power and making very little hard contact. He may not be the .292/.355/.500 hitter he was in his peak year of 2016, but I'd bet on a bounce-back year from him in 2018 on offense and defense, given what an extreme outlier this past season was in every aspect of his game. The lack of every-day catching options on the market makes a gamble on Lucroy a little more attractive as well.
19. Lucas Duda, 1B/DH
Age: 31| B-T: L/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 256
Career WAR: 6.9
Duda has always been a walks and power sort of guy, with enough hard contact mixed in to keep his average respectable, but he was a bit unlucky in the batting average department in 2017, hitting for a lower average than you'd expect given the quality of contact he made. Duda had a pair of 3-win seasons in 2014-15 before a back injury wrecked his 2016, and I think he can get close to that again as long as that medical problem is behind him, a good value for even two years and $10 million or so a season.
20. Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
HT: 6-4 | WT: 215
Career WAR: 4.8
I think I speak for most fans when I ask: When did Anthony Swarzak get good? The 2004 second-rounder came into 2017 with a career 4.52 ERA, and was last seen giving up 10 homers in 31 innings for the Yankees in 2016. The White Sox signed him in the offseason to a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to major league camp, and working with pitching coach Don Cooper and the team's training staff helped bump up his velocity on both his fastball and slider to career highs.
Swarzak's two-pitch approach to right-handers is pretty simple -- sliders down and away, fastballs around the edges of the zone -- but he shows no platoon split even without a third pitch. Now 32, Swarzak will finally get the first seven-figure salary of his 14-year pro career, perhaps even seeing three-year offers in a weak reliever class, although I'd stop somewhere around two years and $12 million.
21. Jaime Garcia, LHP
Age: 31 | B-T: L/L
HT: 6-2 | WT: 200
Career WAR: 10.8
Garcia started the year pitching well for Atlanta, was traded to the Twins, made one start, and then was traded to the Yankees, for whom he walked a man every other inning. Garcia is a high ground ball guy who gets hurt when he leaves the ball up, with chronically high home run rates when batters do get the ball in the air against him.
He has never had a single pitch you could call plus that generated swings-and-misses, but he'll show four weapons and has little platoon split, which is how he has worked as a starter even with modest strikeout rates. Garcia has had three major arm-related injuries in the past 10 years, including Tommy John surgery, shoulder surgery, and surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome. He went four straight years (2012-15) without coming close to a full season of pitching, although he has stayed healthy since his May 2016 return. There's some volatility here both in performance and expected workload, with some mid-rotation upside if you get a full, healthy season. But he's more likely a fourth or good fifth starter at this point, likely to give you about 2 wins above replacement -- maybe a two-year, $20-24 million guy.