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Jan 6 2018 03:18pm
1. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

Altuve became the first player since Ichiro Suzuki to have at least 200 hits in four straight seasons. He already has 1,250 hits, 243 doubles, 561 runs and 231 stolen bases. Sometime in the year ahead, he’s likely to hit the 100th homer of his career; he has 84. He won the American League MVP award last season and has three top-10 finishes in the voting. He’s the fourth second baseman in MLB history with at least four seasons of 200 hits already, and the other three are in the Hall of Fame. He’s 27 years old.

From Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information: Altuve hit at least .300 with an .850 OPS in every month except September/October -- when he hit .291 with an .832 OPS.

2. Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins

He has been a bedrock performer for the Twins: at least 147 games in each of the past five seasons, four straight years of 101 or more runs and 127 homers from 2014 to 2017. He collected his first Gold Glove in 2017 and continues to be one of baseball’s better baserunners; he helped lead a re-emphasis on baserunning for the Twins last season.

3. Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners

His adjusted OPS+ of 112 last season was his lowest since 2008. He is 35 years old, and as Derek Jeter noted in the waning years of his career, when you slump as a young player, it’s just a slump; when you’re older, there are questions about whether you're losing your skill. Cano’s accumulated knowledge, swing and natural ability as a hitter should keep him as an average player for a while, which is good for the Mariners, because Cano has six years and $144 million remaining on his contract.

If he never played another game, his career would still be remarkable. Sometime during the 2018 season, he’s likely to pass 2,500 hits and 1,200 runs for his career. He’s a lifetime .305 hitter with six top-10 finishes for MVP and a couple of Gold Gloves. The metrics suggest that he is still at least a solid defender. From Langs: Cano has 289 career homers as a second baseman, the second most in MLB history behind Jeff Kent (351).

4. Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals

There has been a lot of team regret over multiyear deals, but in the case of Murphy -- who is entering the final year of a three-year, $37.5 million contract negotiated at a time when there was very little leverage for him in the market -- he has been an amazing value for the Nationals, averaging about 5 WAR over his first two years in Washington.

Neither the Mets nor anybody else apparently expected Murphy to build on the power he showed in the second half and playoffs of 2015, but he has had 146 extra-base hits for Washington over the past two years while batting .334 with a .387 OBP. Defense is a challenge for him, of course, but that hasn’t prevented him (or his teams) from becoming an October regular. He has been the second baseman for three consecutive NL East championship teams.

5. Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles

Once Manny Machado and Zach Britton are either traded or walk away as free agents in the next calendar year, the focus for Orioles fans will shift to Schoop and the question of whether Baltimore can retain him. It may already be too late. Schoop has four-plus years of service time in the big leagues and will be eligible for free agency after the 2019 season at age 27.

With all parts of his game now evolved, he stands to cash in big. Schoop has missed only two games the past two seasons, and last year he had his best offensive performance, racking up 32 homers among 67 extra-base hits and batting .293. He is a notorious free swinger but showed a little more plate discipline last year, and this seemed to pay off: Schoop cut his rate of swinging at pitches out of the zone to 36.3 percent, a career low, and his on-base percentage climbed to a career-high .338. He is an above-average defender, perhaps as good as anybody other than Cano in turning a double play.

6. DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies

He has evolved from something of a surprise -- certainly to the Cubs, who traded him to the Rockies -- to one of baseball’s most consistent middle infielders. He has hit over .300 in three straight seasons, won a couple of Gold Gloves and can be penciled in for about 150 games. He tied for the MLB lead (with Yolmer Sanchez) in defensive runs saved (DRS) last season.

7. Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

Raul Mondesi Jr. was the Royals’ second baseman at the outset of last season, but he didn’t hit enough to keep the job. Merrifield, who came through the Royals’ system as a utility man, stepped in and seized the opportunity, batting .288 and posting an adjusted OPS+ of 105, better than LeMahieu, Ian Kinsler or Javier Baez. Manager Ned Yost told the Kansas City Star in September: “Now he’s a fixture.” He led the AL in stolen bases and finished first among AL second basemen in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric. He was tied for sixth among all second basemen in DRS (with plus-5).

8. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

He might be among the most difficult MLB players to evaluate because of the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his play. At his best, he’s a superlative defender with an unparalleled ability to apply a tag and unusual power for a middle infielder. But at his worst, evaluators say he gives away too many at-bats, with a lot of strikeouts. “He drives you crazy watching him, to be honest,” one scout said. But he’s 25 years old and will probably get even more time as the Cubs’ second baseman next season.

9. Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies

His first good season, in 2016, was met with some skepticism, but he backed that up with an almost identical performance in 2017, hitting .294 (again), with a .373 on-base percentage. His wRC+ of 111 was tied for eighth in the majors last season.

10. Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels

Not long after former Tigers manager Brad Ausmus joined the Angels’ front office as a special assistant, the team dealt for Kinsler -- presumably with Ausmus’ consent, because he has loved the way Kinsler plays. The second baseman is 35 years old, and a lot of his offensive numbers dipped last year, but he continues to be a good second baseman, good baserunner and a steady source of energy and intensity, which is greatly valued over the course of a long season.

From Langs: Kinsler has 37 defensive runs saved since the start of the 2015 season, 20 more than anybody else in that span.

Best of the rest
• Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants. He hit .288 with 10 homers last season.

• Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates. He probably would be in the top 10 if not for his versatility -- he started 79 games at second last year, 37 at third and six in the outfield, and he had a 3.3 WAR.

• Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox. Another year, another surgery. Considering the extent of his knee trouble last year, it’s remarkable that he finished the season on the field -- and with a .293 average, no less. But moving forward, he may have to make concessions to age (he’s now 34) and play less to give himself the best chance to stay as healthy as possible.

• Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics. His OPS of .808 was his highest since 2010.

• Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians. It’s unclear what role he’ll play in 2018. But when he’s healthy, he hits.

• Neil Walker, free agent. He had an adjusted OPS+ of 111 last season, when he dealt with back trouble.
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Jan 6 2018 03:18pm
1. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Votto made up his mind before last season that he wanted to do everything he could, within each plate appearance, to not strike out. As the ball-strike count got deeper, Votto would choke up on the bat a little more, he would shorten his swing -- and the contact rate for the best hitter in baseball rose, dramatically. His rate of swing-and-misses fell from 7.1 to 5.7 percent, and his rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone fell to 15.8 percent, the best in the majors.

In this way, Votto reduced his strikeouts from 120 in 2016 to just 83 last season, and he drew 134 walks, with 71 extra-base hits, and finished the season with a .454 on-base percentage. He also led all first basemen in defensive runs saved. And while a lot of evaluators consider some of the defensive metrics a work in progress in how they properly reflect the most valued skills at the position, this was Votto’s best season in DRS -- and significantly better than in 2016, when he scored a minus-14.

About Votto’s Hall of Fame résumé: His second-place finish in the 2017 National League MVP voting was the seventh time he has finished in the top 10, including his first-place year of 2010. His career on-base percentage of .428 is 11th best all time, and eight of the 10 ahead of him played all or the bulk of their respective careers before 1940. He has reached base 2,629 times in his career via hit, walk or hit by pitch.

2. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Injuries limited him to 117 games, and yet Freeman still had 63 extra-base hits, drew 65 walks and scored 84 runs. Matt Kemp’s presence seemed to help him in 2016, but Kemp regressed last year and now he is gone, and the Braves are again in need of lineup protection for Freeman. Or else Freeman will again need to make the same choice that Votto has sometimes faced: Expand the strike zone or take walks.

3. Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks

He was probably the front-runner to win the NL MVP last season, before injuries seemingly slowed him in the last month. Goldschmidt batted .171 in September and still finished the year with a .404 on-base percentage, 117 runs, 120 RBIs, 73 extra-base hits and 18 stolen bases. He’s a high-end defender and a really good baserunner, as well. “I don’t see too many players who are as consistent as he is,” said one evaluator. “He’s a model for how everybody should want to play.”

The Diamondbacks are quickly approaching the window in which they will have to make a decision about whether and how to invest in Goldschmidt for the second half of his career: Arizona holds a $14.5 million option on the slugger for 2019, and after that, he’ll be eligible for free agency.

4. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

Like some other players, Rizzo seemed to draw from Votto’s example last season and reduced his strikeouts, while increasing his on-base percentage to a career-high .392. He and Eric Hosmer are regarded as two of the better defensive first basemen by their peers because of their willingness -- their desire, really -- to throw to bases.

5. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

He does not have the same kind of career résumé as a lot of the folks lower on this list, but given his athleticism, defense and power, you’d be hard-pressed to find executives who would take most first baseman over Bellinger. The Astros crushed him with breaking pitches in the World Series, and undoubtedly, he’ll see a lot of that this year; but if the first year of his career was any indication, he’ll figure it out. Bellinger already is an elite defender and baserunner, and some teammates have raved about his approach to his work.

6. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

With the Tigers and Royals spinning downward into a rebuilding cycle and the Indians perhaps working with a window of opportunity that could last two years, it makes sense that the White Sox believe they have a shot to start winning in the near future -- and they have kept a high asking price on Abreu in trade discussions. Abreu, who will turn 31 later this month, is under team control for the next two years, and he has been a metronome of production: Abreu has at least 176 hits in each of his four seasons in the big leagues, 124 homers and four straight years of 100 or more RBIs.

7. Eric Hosmer, free agent

His platform season for free agency was really good -- the 28-year-old Hosmer had his career high in on-base percentage (.385) and slugging percentage (.495), and he played every game for the Royals. Hosmer has missed a total of eight games over the past three seasons. One American League executive agreed with one argument that Boras has been casting into the market: Hosmer fosters success. “He’s someone you win with,” said the exec.

8. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

The Nationals had enough concern about Zimmerman going into 2017 that they signed Adam Lind to be a safety net -- one that wasn’t needed. Zimmerman lives year-round in the D.C. area and works out at the ballpark on most days, and Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo remembers watching Zimmerman hit before spring training last year and seeing progress. “It was the first offseason [in a while that] he wasn’t rehabbing an injury,” Rizzo wrote in a text. “He was in preparation for the season.” Finally healthy, Zimmerman had a monster season, hitting 36 homers, posting a .930 OPS and making the All-Star team for the first time since 2009.

9. Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies

He devoted himself to being a better defender, and with his consistent ability to reach base -- he has a .365 OBP in his career -- the Phillies decided to invest in Santana to play first base and keep Rhys Hoskins in the outfield for the next few years. Santana does tend to go through extensive periods in which his power disappears. At the All-Star break last season, Santana had 10 homers and a .238 average.

10. Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

There are metrics suggesting that more mistakes were made on ball-strike calls on Carpenter than any hitter in the majors. Using TruMedia data, Sarah Langs notes that Carpenter had 54 framed strikes called on him, the second-highest total in the majors -- that’s pitches that had a 25 percent chance or lower of being called a strike, based on data on that location. But in spite of that, Carpenter consistently reaches base. His on-base percentage over the past two seasons was .380 and .384, respectively, and now that the Cardinals have bolstered their lineup with Marcell Ozuna -- with perhaps another hitter on the way -- Carpenter could settle into one spot in the order. Last year, he batted leadoff most of the time, and he had a .418 OBP and scored 66 runs in 89 games.

Best of the rest
• Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays. He slashed his strikeout percentage dramatically, from 32.8 percent in 2016 to 20.1 percent last season, and had his best season, with 38 homers.

• Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. Coming off his best season since 2013, Mauer needs only 14 hits for 2,000 in his career. This will be the last year of the contract he signed in 2010.

• Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers. He’s such a gifted hitter that after a winter of rehab, he could bounce back. With Victor Martinez set to begin the final year of his four-year, $68 million deal, this could be the last season Cabrera serves as a first baseman.

• Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers. The 24-year-old moved around to different spots last year, playing some outfield, some third and some first; and because of surprising athleticism in someone as big as he is, he could continue to do that. Last year, Gallo had just 94 hits in 145 games -- but he scored 85 runs, because of his 41 homers.

• Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics. He hit 24 homers in his 189 at-bats for the Athletics last season, and based on that, a reasonable argument could be made that he should be in the Top 10. Much more importantly, his emergence prompted Oakland to trade Ryon Healy so they could station Olson at first.
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Jan 9 2018 01:10pm
Ill post them when i get home from my pc.. pain in the ass on my phone
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Jan 10 2018 04:20pm
Buster Olney's top 10 shortstops: Are Lindor and Correa MLB's Magic and Bird?
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Jan 8, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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For the rest of their lives, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor are destined to be compared with each other. They are superlative ballplayers born within a year of each other (Lindor is 24, Correa 23), they are both from Puerto Rico, and of course, they are both shortstops.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders: Thursday, Jan. 11
» Best teams: Friday, Jan. 12
» Best units: Saturday, Jan. 13

But they are very different in style and substance. Lindor is under 6 feet, a switch-hitter who runs well and is regarded by evaluators as the better defender. Correa is bigger, with an A-Rod frame, and stronger; he will probably hit a lot more homers in his career, and because of that, some executives believe his performance ceiling could be higher.

They are friends, but just as Magic Johnson and Larry Bird measured their own progress according to the standard set by the other during their careers, Correa and Lindor will always naturally push each other -- with respect.

In the months leading up to the World Baseball Classic, Puerto Rico GM Alex Cora and manager Edwin Rodriguez faced a potentially difficult situation because of the middle infield riches on their roster, with three incredibly talented shortstops -- Correa, Lindor and Javier Baez. That was resolved, Cora later explained, through magnanimity: Correa asked A.J. Hinch and Cora at the outset of spring training if he could prepare to play third base for Puerto Rico. Baez played second, Lindor shortstop, and Puerto Rico reached the championship game.

Two years ago, Lindor served as an anchor to a league champion that played to the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series before falling. Two months ago, Correa was the anchor to a team that won Game 7 of the World Series -- and then he topped it off with a marriage proposal on the field.

Like Bird and Magic, they will probably continue to take turns in the achievement spotlight in the years ahead, and Correa and Lindor top our Top 10 list of shortstops, a ranking based on the input of MLB evaluators, with the help of researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.

1. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

The Indians thought his swing got a little long last season and that he sometimes got away from what he does best -- that is, consistently hitting the ball hard -- and he batted .252 before the All-Star break. But he finished well and closed the year with 81 extra-base hits, including 33 homers, and was fifth in the AL MVP voting. He has played all but seven games in the past two regular seasons.

From Langs: The only other shortstop to hit at least 30 homers in a season before turning 24 years old is Alex Rodriguez, who did that twice.

2. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

If Correa hadn’t torn up his thumb in midseason, he might have vied with teammate Jose Altuve for the AL MVP and taken the No. 1 ranking on this list. Correa missed about a third of the Astros’ schedule after having surgery and still managed to finish 17th among all position players in fWAR at 5.2. Correa’s power breakout, long predicted for the 6-foot-4, 215-pound shortstop, is happening: His slugging percentage jumped to .550, and he tied for eighth in the majors in wRC+. He is already known among veteran teammates for being a very serious student of the game, digging in and diagnosing and dissecting.

From Langs: Correa has generated 16.3 WAR in his first three career seasons, second most by any shortstop, behind Arky Vaughan (17.4).

Said one evaluator: “For me, you have Lindor and Correa … and then there’s a gap from the rest of the pack.”

3. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 shortstops from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

In his first two full seasons in the big leagues, Seager has been more than an adequate defender while providing big-time production at the plate. As with a lot of young players, Seager’s next challenge will be in improving his plate discipline: Among talent evaluators trailing the Dodgers in the postseason last fall, there was a sense that Seager could be pitched to in big spots because of his aggressiveness. But while Seager tends to attack at the plate, he still is among the best infielders at reaching base: He has a .374 OBP in his short time in the majors.

4. Andrelton Simmons, Los Angeles Angels

You start with the defense, of course. No one had a greater defensive impact than the Angels’ shortstop, who led all position players with 32 defensive runs saved -- more than double that of any other shortstop last year. Simmons has five full seasons in the big leagues, and in that time, he has lorded over all other shortstops in his defensive pre-eminence:

Defensive Runs Saved, 2013-2017

Simmons 144

Brandon Crawford 58

Addison Russell 44

Zack Cozart 40

Nick Ahmed 37

Francisco Lindor 32

But he also has developed into a solid if unspectacular offensive player, to the degree that Simmons led all shortstops in WAR last year with 7.1 after batting .278 with 38 doubles and 14 homers. Braves staffers who loved Simmons always acknowledged that because of his aggressiveness he would probably never be a high-level hitter, but last season Simmons had the best rate of hard-hit balls (29.2 percent) in his career.

5. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

Two years ago, Andrus seemed to be in a midcareer malaise, with three consecutive summers of sub-.700 OPS production, and his contract was probably regarded as unmovable. But Andrus, still under 30 years old but on the cusp of his 10th year in the big leagues, rededicated himself to the sport, made changes and has become a much better player.

“For a while, I wondered how much he cared about it,” said one rival executive. “He looks energized to me.”

Andrus had 191 hits last season, a career high, with 68 extra-base hits; for the first time, he scored 100 runs. He ranked among the top half of shortstops in defensive runs saved.

A big financial carrot is now right in front of him: Andrus can opt out of his contract after the 2018 season, something that would’ve been unthinkable a few years ago.

From Langs: He hit 20 homers in 2017 after never hitting more than eight in any prior season.

6. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants

One evaluator mentioned the off-field issues that hovered over Crawford last year, when he and the Giants struggled. “For me, he gets a mulligan,” said the scout. “Because he’s been a good player for a long time.” Crawford won the NL Gold Glove Award for the third straight season.

7. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

His defensive metrics are among the worst in MLB, but new Boston manager Alex Cora was responsible for a lot of the shifting that the Astros did last year, and presumably he could foster alignments that help Bogaerts. If not, this could be a pivotal year for Bogaerts and decisions about where he should play in future seasons. His second-half decline at the plate seemed directly related to injuries, so he’ll probably hit for more power this year.

8. Didi Gregorius, New York Yankees
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He seemed to graduate to another level last year, generating a lot of big hits and hitting .287 with 87 RBIs in 136 games in the regular season before mustering five extra-base hits in 13 postseason games.

9. Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners

He had an adjusted OPS+ of 110 last season, and despite injuries he batted .300 and scored 80 runs in 125 games, giving the Mariners the type of production they had hoped for when Seattle traded the talented Taijuan Walker to Arizona for him.

10. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

When he’s healthy and playing well, Turner has demonstrated that he can be a high-impact player, with transformative speed -- he’s got 81 stolen bases in 97 attempts in just 198 games. However, Turner still hasn’t had a season in which he’s played 100 games.

In defensive runs saved, he ranked in the bottom half of MLB shortstops who had at least 800 innings at the position last year.
Best of the rest

• Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs: He had a really rough season on and off the field in 2017, and the Cubs hope for a rebound from Russell, who turns 24 this month. There was speculation among rival executives about whether the Cubs would be open to moving him, but his defense is hard to replace -- even in a down year, he rated very well in his glove work.

• Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers: His first season as a big league regular was impressive, with hints of great stuff to come. Arcia showed some pop, generated a lot of web gems and was eighth among shortstops in defensive runs saved.

• Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals: He had a strong rookie season, taking the position away from Aledmys Diaz and hitting 25 homers in 108 games.
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Buster Olney's top 10 third basemen: Stars sizzle at the hot corner
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Jan 7, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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This will be a memorable year in the life of Manny Machado. Sometime in 2018, the Baltimore Orioles will probably trade him to a World Series contender and give him the same opportunity that Justin Verlander had after landing with the Houston Astros. Then Machado will become a free agent in November and sometime before the new year, he will begin to field offers for tens of millions of dollars -- or maybe even hundreds of millions. He will be rewarded for all of the work that he put in as a kid and in his years with the Orioles, all of that time he spent in rehabilitation from two serious knee injuries.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders: Thursday, Jan. 11
» Best teams: Friday, Jan. 12
» Best units: Saturday, Jan. 13

But the return on his investment in himself may not max out unless Machado digs in and performs more consistently. In order to get the sort of record-setting contract he could pursue, Machado needs to have a strong launch year into the open market, as an on-field response to some of the questions that executives have about him -- heard as we prepared our top-10 list of third basemen.

“To be honest, he looks bored sometimes,” said one evaluator.

Said another: “I think he needs a different challenge.”

Alex Rodriguez was Machado’s idol when he was growing up as a kid in Miami, and the comparisons between the two as players are natural because they were raised in the same area, as wildly talented, thriving power-hitting infielders. But there seems to be one enormous and important difference between Alex Rodriguez and Machado.

Throughout A-Rod’s career, nobody ever questioned his focus. Ever. Potential investors viewed Rodriguez as someone of superlative skill and total commitment, someone who would do whatever he needed to do daily to be great. That helped him land two record-setting contracts -- his $252 million deal with the Rangers, which he opted out of to negotiate a $275 million monster with the Yankees.

Last year was a challenge for Machado, for sure. Early in the year, he was at the center of the Orioles’ beanball stuff with the Red Sox after colliding with Dustin Pedroia on a slide. The Orioles had the worst rotation in the majors and for the Baltimore position players, there must’ve been a Groundhog Day feel to the season: By the fourth or fifth inning on most days, Machado and the other position players would be staring at an early deficit of three or four runs. By September, the Orioles sometimes looked like the walking dead, Machado among them.

This was reflected in the feedback of evaluators solicited for their rankings of the top 10 third basemen. For some, Machado was listed fourth or fifth or even sixth, with caveats. At his best, they believe, he is the most talented defender at the position, and capable of big offensive numbers -- but that he sometimes will drift through days or weeks, particularly in the way he works through his plate appearances. His production in 2017 was remarkably erratic.

Machado’s OPS by month

April .767

May .629

June .759

July .870

August 1.039

September .537

He finished with a .259 average and a .310 on-base percentage, and as ESPN Researcher Paul Hembekides notes, his performance outside of hitter-friendly Camden Yards was flat-out awful last season -- a .268 on-base percentage in 336 plate appearances, with an Adjusted OPS+ of 80, well below major league average.

He’s going to get a great contract and make more money than almost all of his peers, because of how special a defender he is, whether he’s at shortstop (where the Orioles are expected to play him this year) or at third base. But Machado could help himself by being more consistent, in a sport that probably values that trait -- and compensates for it -- more than any other.

Our top-10 list of third basemen, which is based on the input of evaluators and the insight and data generated by ESPN’s Paul Hembekides, Sarah Langs and Mark Simon. And of all the tasks in this series, trying to rank the third basemen is the most impossible.

1. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

When position players are compared, the Rockies’ players are always assigned demerits because, almost without exception, their numbers at home are markedly better than on the road. For hitters, there is a clear statistical advantage to playing half of their games in Coors Field. But Rockies’ officials made a fair point about this dynamic: the performance of pitchers who work in ballparks clearly favorable to them -- like the pitchers of the Dodgers, Giants or Padres -- isn’t dissected in the same way.
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 third baseman from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

So sure, Nolan Arenado does do a lot of damage in his home games, but he’s a great player no matter where he is. He generated 87 extra-base hits and drove in at least 130 runs for the third consecutive season, and had a career-high .959 OPS. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his five seasons in the big leagues and finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting in each of the past three seasons, and he plays ferociously -- he’s like a middle linebacker at third base, attacking and intercepting ground balls.

From Sarah Langs: He has 104 Defensive Runs Saved at third base since his 2013 debut. The next-most at third base is Manny Machado, with 74.

Another: In 2017, he joined Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Wade Boggs as the only third basemen to win at least three straight Silver Slugger Awards. (Schmidt won five straight, Boggs four straight.)

2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

He finished last season as the second baseman for the Indians, but the bulk of his exceptional work was accomplished at third base, where he made 86 of his 151 starts. One longtime coach said about Ramirez that he competes with more intensity than any player in the American League -- game to game, inning to inning, pitch to pitch. Last year, Ramirez had 91 extra-base hits and scored 107 runs, and stole 17 bases -- and for all that and more, Ramirez finished third in the AL MVP voting. Ramirez had the 10th-lowest swing-and-miss ratio in the majors.

From Langs: Ramirez, a switch-hitter, ranked in the top 20 in batting average against right-handed pitchers (.312) and left-handers (.329).

3. Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals

He makes a point of refusing to talk about his own accomplishments, his own play, and maybe that’s why Rendon is perpetually underrated. He led all third basemen in fWAR last season -- heck, he led all National Leaguers in that category -- and yet he wasn’t on the All-Star team, and he finished sixth in the MVP balloting. Rendon had more walks (84) than strikeouts (82), and 41 doubles and 25 homers and a .403 on-base percentage; he had the eighth-lowest rate of swings and misses in the majors.

4. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Bryant won the MVP in 2016 and improved his batting average in 2017 to .295, and his OPS to .946. He may have been more affected by the depth problems in the Cubs’ lineup in 2017 than any other hitter, given how opposing pitchers chose to work around him more often -- his walk total climbed to 95, and he reduced his strikeout rate again, to 128; in 2015, he had 199. It was curious that Bryant’s peers did not vote him to the All-Star team last season, in a year in which Bryant would rank second behind Rendon in WAR.

5. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

After watching Machado through one series last summer, one AL evaluator walked away convinced that he is the most gifted infield defender he has ever seen, with a unique ability to generate powerful throws from any angle. Sometime in 2018, Machado will likely collect career hit No. 1,000 and career homer No. 150, in a summer when he’ll turn 26.

6. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

He’s great when he plays, and the last couple of seasons he has been hurt a lot. He limped through the last month of 2016, and after he hurt his calf last spring, he missed 49 games -- and as usual, Donaldson did a ton of damage when he was in the lineup. Donaldson hit 33 homers and mustered a .559 slugging percentage, and as general manager Ross Atkins said when deflecting trade rumors this winter, it’s hard to imagine the Jays competing in 2018 without Donaldson being in the middle of it. Donaldson turned 32 in December, and will be a free agent in the fall.

From Langs: Since his debut in 2013, Donaldson ranks second in WAR among all position players, trailing only Mike Trout (43.8 to 36.2).

7. Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

As we are seeing among free agents this winter, hitting home runs doesn’t necessarily get you paid well. Consistently making hard contact, on the other hand -- and this is something that Turner does very well. He ranked second to Joey Votto in walk/strikeout rate last season. He also produced the biggest drop in strikeout rate from 2016 to 2017 among qualifiers in both seasons, striking out 6.9 percent less frequently.

8. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
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The deep confidence with which he plays manifested in the postseason, when Bregman got the game-winning hit to end of the craziest World Series games ever -- a single off Kenley Jansen in Game 5. Playing his first full season in the big leagues, Bregman made adjustments and batted .315 after the All-Star break, with 48 runs in 71 games and a .903 OPS. Bregman was a shortstop as an amateur, and some evaluators think he is still learning about playing third base.

9. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

Injuries kept him off the field for a lot of last season, but he still managed to hit 17 homers and drive in 71 runs in only 94 games. The future Hall of Famer achieved his 3,000th career hit, and he needs 38 homers for 500.

Sarah sent along this note: Beltre has 49.4 WAR since his age-31 season in 2010, and that is the 12th-highest total for any player since his age-31 season. The names ahead of him: Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Cap Anson, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Stan Musial, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams and Roberto Clemente. In other words, a lot of inner-circle Hall of Famers.

10. Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

There was some debate among rival evaluators if the Giants -- with an aging group of position players -- would’ve been better served to target somebody other than the 32-year-old Longoria. But he continues to be a very good player, particularly on defense -- Longoria won his third Gold Glove in 2017, and his first in seven years. He hit 20 homers for the Rays last season, after mustering 36 in 2016.
Best of the rest

• Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners: He’s coming off something of a down year, in which his OBP fell 36 points to .323, but he has become the Brian McCann of third basemen -- he has had at least 20 homers in six straight seasons. Needs five hits for 1,000 in his career.

• Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks: His defensive metrics are ugly, but he does a ton of damage at the plate -- with 133 hits and 87 walks, he posted a .357 on-base percentage last year, with 30 homers.

• Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers: This was the trade that haunted the Red Sox last year, as Shaw mashed 31 homers and accumulated an Adjusted OPS+ of 121.

• Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics: If you haven’t seen the highlights of his defense, do yourself a favor and dig up some video of him making plays last season. In only 84 games last year, he generated 2.7 WAR, and the only reason he’s not in the top 10 here is because of the sample size. He looks like he’ll be a star defender for years to come.

• Jedd Gyorko, St. Louis Cardinals: There has been some speculation this winter that the Cardinals might pursue free-agent Mike Moustakas, but they may be happy with the guy they’ve got. Gyorko is coming off a strong season in which he worked on getting lower in his set-up and helped his defensive metrics tremendously.

• Mike Moustakas, free agent: He hit a career-high 38 homers last year, and evaluators view him as a good defender.

• A final note, on Miguel Sano of the Minnesota Twins: He may not get many games at third base in 2018, which is why he’ll be listed among the best DHs.
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Jan 10 2018 04:26pm
Buster Olney's top 10 left fielders: Superstar shake-up has big names left out to dry
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Jan 9, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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After a month of bad reviews over the trade of MVP Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins might be inclined to hang on to their best remaining player, Christian Yelich, who is among MLB’s top 10 left fielders -- the position where he is expected to play in 2018.

Yelich has a team-friendly contract and will make only $7 million this season, so there’s no immediate pressure on Miami to deal him. In a year in which the Marlins will be a recurring punchline, Derek Jeter & Co. could cling to Yelich as a piece of credibility in the way that the San Diego Padres kept Tony Gwynn and Andy Benes through their 1993 fire sale of Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff and others.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders: Thursday, Jan. 11
» Best teams: Friday, Jan. 12
» Best units: Saturday, Jan. 13

But there’s a strong argument to be made that the Marlins’ best strategy is to deal Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and any other veteran of value, because any lasting damage that has been done to the franchise by Jeter’s Project Wolverine teardown could be irreversible -- unless the Marlins execute a near-perfect, cost-efficient rebuild. And even then, it may not matter to fans in south Florida.

The truncated history of the Montreal Expos might provide the best comparison to where the Marlins stand now. As the Montreal ownership made decisions about the team’s finances, the Expos’ fan base endured repeated departures of Hall of Fame-caliber players: Gary Carter. Andre Dawson. Tim Raines. Vladimir Guerrero. Pedro Martinez.

Eventually, the fans in Montreal stopped going to games. After Martinez was traded in the fall of 1997, the Expos’ attendance fell by about 40 percent, to less than 1 million, and in 2001, Montreal drew just 643,000. The 2004 Expos drew 750,000, with a lot of that accounted for by fans saying goodbye to the team.

Depending on how the Marlins handle their accounting this year, they may become the first MLB team since the ’04 Expos to fail to reach 1 million in attendance. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins’ through-the-turnstile count last year was closer to 800,000, or about half of their announced attendance of 1.59 million. With the trades of Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, the team will likely be terrible in 2018 and for at least three or four years after that, as the front office goes through its rebuilding/tanking. Yelich’s presence in a Marlins uniform isn’t going to fool fans about the product.

What’s most important now for the Marlins’ front office is to collect and develop the right group of prospects, and to time its collective ascension the way that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros did theirs. It’s a nearly impossible challenge, of course, because the Marlins aren’t embedded in the hearts of their fan base the way the Cubs were, nor do they have the financial potential of the Astros to augment their young players. The truth is that Project Wolverine is the baseball equivalent of a Hail Mary, because even if they get it right, fans in south Florida might not care anymore -- after the breakups of the ’97 and ’03 championship teams, the trade of 24-year-old superstar Miguel Cabrera, the swap of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle even after the opening of the taxpayer-funded ballpark, and now the salary dump of Stanton.

The new ownership group had one chance to make a first impression, one chance to distinguish itself from the distrusted regimes of the past. That has been squandered, and mortal damage may have been done to the market. Considering where the Marlins are today, they might as well push ahead and "rip the whole Band-Aid off,” as a rival executive said. “They might as well take all the pain now.”

So yes, the time is right to trade Yelich. His inclusion in the top-10 list below is based on the input of evaluators, with the counsel of ESPN researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.

1. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals

Under Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins sometimes acted rashly, doing stuff you’d never see from other organizations, such as when longtime evaluator Dan Jennings was named manager despite having zero experience in that role. But every so often, the impetuosity paid off -- and maybe it did with Marcell Ozuna. The young slugger showed up to spring training heavy and out of shape, and in midseason the Marlins demoted him to the minors, against the objections of his agent, Scott Boras.

You can debate how much the rebuke actually affected his play, but there’s no doubt that Ozuna improved a lot the past two years, which is why the Cardinals aggressively targeted him over the winter and will install him in the middle of their lineup. Ozuna was an average center fielder at best, but he is a good left fielder; only Brett Gardner had more defensive runs saved than Ozuna last year.

2. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ intention is to shift Yelich back to left field if they keep him, and if he’s traded he’s likely to be a corner outfielder moving forward. His power numbers have jumped the past two seasons -- he hit a total of 39 homers in 2016 and 2017 -- and any team that acquires him can do so with the expectation that Yelich’s production will continue to climb outside of the Marlins’ cavernous home park. Incredibly, 41 of his 59 career homers have been hit on the road, where his OPS has been 80 points higher than in his home games. He has been remarkably consistent in his ability to get on base: In his five seasons, Yelich’s OBP has ranged between .362 and .376 annually.

3. Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels

The Angels traded for Upton to help with the last month of their pennant push last season, but they also bought a one-month audition -- a test-drive with one of baseball’s best power hitters. And they liked what they saw, because after the season they negotiated a one-year extension for Upton, who could’ve opted out of his contract. "Justin embodied our offensive philosophy, which is to get on base and hit the ball hard," Angels GM Billy Eppler said on the night that the signing was announced. "He's shown a knack for doing that. He's got the power and the on-base skills that we covet, as well as the character and the professional approach necessary to be a key member of our core moving forward."
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 left fielders from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

Upton hit 35 homers last year and has had at least 26 homers in each of the past six seasons. He tied for 23rd in wRC+ among all hitters who qualified for the batting title.

4. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox

If not for Aaron Judge, Benintendi would’ve won the AL Rookie of the Year Award after a very solid first showing -- and there’s probably a lot more power to come. A longtime scout noted Benintendi’s unusual swing and its natural uppercut, giving him the ability to get the ball in the air, and as he learns more about pitchers and how he’s being attacked, that will likely manifest more and more. Benintendi hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases and scored 84 runs in his first season, and he ran the bases well and played good defensive.

5. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets

Cespedes' physical condition at the outset of spring training might be the biggest story in Mets camp again because of how last year played out. He reported to camp with the body of a middle linebacker after an offseason of heavy weight training, and after daily eruptions in batting practice, the Mets were hopeful that he would have a monster season. But Cespedes broke down repeatedly last summer and played just half of the Mets’ games, creating an enormous hole in the lineup. The Mets aren’t expecting anything out of David Wright, they need a second baseman and a first baseman, and they don’t know what they’ll get out of Matt Harvey -- and they can probably overcome all of that uncertainty and still contend. But given the structure of the Mets’ lineup and the $87 million they have invested in Cespedes moving ahead, it’s hard to imagine they can win in 2018 unless the 32-year-old Cespedes plays in 130-plus games. If he played 150 games, he would probably be MLB’s best left fielder.

6. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

As the Yankees have worked to manage their payroll and roster needs in recent winters, they have been open to the idea of trading Gardner -- and have been surprised by how unaggressive other teams have been. Gardner has been a clubhouse leader, a consistent source of accountability, and the Yankees have loved him for that, but he also has been a good player, with a solid on-base percentage (.350 last season), tough and extended at-bats, good defense, good baserunning, versatility and his emotional flexibility -- he'll do whatever they need him to. Now the Yankees may well keep him through the remainder of his contract, which pays him $11.5 million in 2018, with a club option for $12.5 million in 2019.

7. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins

A rival evaluator following the Twins believes that, collectively, their young hitters make an effort to ignore breaking pitches early in the count. They chased out of the strike zone less and gave themselves a chance to see better pitches later in the count. This seemed to really help Rosario, who improved significantly as the 2017 season progressed, hitting .311 with a .351 OBP and a .568 SLG after June 13. He finished the year with an adjusted OPS+ of 120. It was a crossroad season for him: Rosario’s patience at the plate improved, he gave himself a better chance to get better pitches to hit, and his rate of contact climbed.

8. Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
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He has hit 85 homers over the past two seasons, but he will be an interesting test case in the next year of the industry’s investment in defense. The Brewers traded Davis to Oakland a few years ago partly because of their concern about his outfield play, and metrics indicated that last season was his worst year defensively -- only six outfielders scored lower in defensive runs saved than Davis, who posted a minus-13 mark. Oakland manager Bob Melvin played him in fewer games in the outfield. In 2016, Chris Carter led the National League in home runs -- and then was nontendered. Davis made $5 million last season and will get a big raise this winter because the arbitration process rewards players for success with the old-school statistics like homers and RBI. If Oakland drifts out of contention in 2018 -- which is likely, given the strength at the top of the AL West -- and the Athletics dangle Davis in the trade market, the level of interest will be the first strong indication of how Davis' skill set is actually valued by rival evaluators.

9. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

With the start of spring training a little more than a month away, the Pirates haven’t wholly embraced a course of action for 2018; after weeks of trade discussion, they still have Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison on their roster. They still have the option of trying to win in 2018.

A really important variable in their plans is the expected performance of Marte, and the simple fact of the matter is they have no way of knowing what type of player he will be in the year ahead. Marte was busted for PEDs early last season and didn't produce after he returned from suspension: In those 64 games, he had a .723 OPS with 13 extra-base hits, although he batted .330 in his last 23 games. Because of his lack of time on the field during the regular season, the Pirates gave him the OK to play winter ball, and he initially struggled before finishing with a .255 average and .310 on-base percentage.

The Pirates don’t know if Marte’s strong play in the past was rooted in PED use, or if he can be a high-end offensive player. At the very least, he’ll help Pittsburgh’s defense (and pitching, by extension) with his glove work. He had eight defensive runs saved in just 665⅓ innings last season.

10. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

His impact in the big leagues was immediate -- 18 homers in 50 games -- but the lasting impression that Hoskins made on some evaluators was his willingness to take a walk as opposing pitchers tried to cope with his power. He drew 37 walks and averaged 4.65 pitches per plate appearance, and had a .396 on-base percentage. Hoskins will have to face more counterattacks in his second season in the big leagues, but the Phillies saw enough of him in the lineup and in left field to buy into three years of Carlos Santana at first base, giving Philadelphia a powerful lineup core.
Best of the rest

• Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians: He hit .299 in 90 games, but then suffered an ankle injury.

• Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds: Duvall continues to do a lot of damage -- he’s got back-to-back seasons with at least 70 extra-base hits.

• Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: In his first full season in the big leagues, he had an adjusted OPS+ of 120, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

• Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays: He made the AL All-Star team for the first time.

• Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: He was off to a phenomenal start in 2017 with a .393 OBP when he went down with a knee injury. The Nationals plan to move him to left field in 2018.
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