Quote (SheriffCool @ Feb 2 2018 11:22pm)
What trades will help the Lakers finally add a superstar?
Which players should the Lakers trade at the deadline? Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
8:30 AM ET
Kevin PeltonESPN Staff Writer
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How should the Los Angeles Lakers approach the trade deadline?
The Lakers' situation is complicated by their focus on maintaining cap space for this summer, when they hope to land a pair of star players in free agency. As ESPN's Bobby Marks outlined recently, the Lakers still have work to get there, some of which could be done over the next week.
Above and beyond those cap-clearing moves, any Lakers decision before July 1 must be made through the prism of maximizing cap space. So should they look to trade impending free agent Julius Randle? Or anyone else? Let's consider their options.
Trading Jordan Clarkson
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported last month that the Lakers "have given up hope" of trading Luol Deng, who has two years and $36.6 million remaining on his contract, because of the high price other teams are asking to take on his salary. If the Lakers indeed waive Deng and stretch his remaining contract, that necessitates trading Clarkson to clear enough cap space for two max offers.
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The question with Clarkson, then, is one of timing. Wojnarowski also reported that the Lakers originally preferred to wait until this summer to trade Clarkson, but there was now mutual interest from player and team for making a move before the deadline.
From the Lakers' perspective, trading Clarkson could represent an opportunity to sell high after his strong start to the season, as I argued last month. After a dreadful December, Clarkson averaged 15.9 points per game in the month of January with starting point guard Lonzo Ball spending much of the month on the sidelines.
If the Lakers could move Clarkson, giving up only a second-round pick or two and taking back no long-term salary, I'd make that trade now. (The Lakers don't have their own 2018 second-round pick, but they do have one from the Denver Nuggets.) But few teams could actually complete such a deal, and if none of them are interested, I'd wait until this summer, when the number of teams with cap space will be greater and Clarkson will have less time left on his deal.
Trading Julius Randle
The timing of Randle's restricted free agency is especially tricky for the Lakers. Because of Randle's $12.5 million cap hold, the Lakers would have to renounce his rights to sign two players to max contracts. So keeping Randle beyond the trade deadline could mean getting nothing in return.
Alternatively, the Lakers could retain Randle's rights in case they're not able to land two max free agents. If the Lakers strike out on stars, re-signing the 23-year-old Randle may be a better option than signing a lesser player from another team.
After struggling with his efficiency during his first two NBA seasons (not counting his rookie campaign, which lasted just one game before Randle suffered a fractured tibia), Randle is making a career-high 55.3 percent of his 2-point attempts this season. The improvement can largely be traced to Randle primarily playing center, a position at which he was more effective offensively in the past.
The question is, How good can a team built around Randle at center be defensively? Randle rarely blocks shots and fouls at an above-average rate for a center, a bad combination of skills. The Lakers have managed to post an average defensive rating with Randle at the position this season, per NBA Advanced Stats, though that's partially attributable to opponents shooting a below-average percentage on 3-point shots. Even the single-season version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) ranks Randle 57th out of the group of 75 centers, and he rates worse still in the multiyear version of RPM.
Though Randle can continue to develop, the best role for him might be as an offensive anchor of a second unit, along the lines of how Enes Kanter played with the Oklahoma City Thunder. If that's the case, I'd probably rather try to trade Randle now than hang on to his rights as a restricted free agent. An offer of a pick likely to fall in the top half of the second round and an expiring contract would probably be enough for me to part with Randle.
Trading expiring contracts
The Lakers have a pair of starters on large, expiring contracts: shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who signed a one-year deal with the Lakers last summer, and center Brook Lopez. Both would potentially be of interest to contenders as rentals, but making a deal work is tricky.
The problem from the Lakers' standpoint is there just aren't many expiring contracts on the market of similar size. Not counting player options and non-guarantees, Lopez has the third-largest salary of any player in the last year of his contract. Caldwell-Pope is sixth. And the other players around them are mostly starters on playoff teams who aren't going anywhere.
There are a handful of possible deals available. If the Philadelphia 76ers wanted to add one of the two Lakers for the stretch run, for example, they could send Amir Johnson and Trevor Booker in return to match salary. Still, the odds are the Lakers won't be able to recoup value for Caldwell-Pope and Lopez as rentals because they won't take long-term salary back in return. In that case, given Lopez's evident frustration with his shrinking role, a post-deadline buyout seems likely.
Trading Larry Nance Jr.
Wojnarowski reported last month that in addition to Clarkson and Randle, the Lakers also had made Larry Nance Jr. available. Nance's inclusion is more difficult to understand. Given his cheap salary ($2.3 million in 2018-19, the final season of his rookie contract), Nance seems like an ideal fit for a team looking to use cap space. In the event the Lakers are able to land LeBron James in free agency, I argued earlier this season that Nance would benefit more than any other current Lakers player. Unless an interested team is willing to overpay for Nance, I would definitely hang on to him.
The Lakers' real fireworks won't come over the next week. Check back in July for any potential big moves. That noted, playing the trade deadline correctly could help set up the Lakers' summer.
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