Quote (Pinecones @ Mar 22 2018 03:30pm)
As the 2018 NFL draft inches closer -- seriously, it's next month -- it's time for my annual tradition of evaluating last year's draft, tearing up my grades that come out the night the draft ends and starting from scratch based on how each rookie performed in Year 1. We saw several injuries crush several of these classes, but there were also a lot of surprises and sleepers who outperformed their draft positions. Either way, it's a good time for a progress report.
As a reminder: The updated grades are just a fun exercise in seeing how the draft class appears to be shaping up. It's a check to see how players are coming along. A few parameters:
I look at first-year impact from the rookie class based on relative value -- contributing to a winner is worth more than piling up reps for a bad team.
I included rookie undrafted free agents added after the draft, as those are an important part of the process. And there were a few teams that had big contributors from UFAs.
As with the rookie rankings, I try to ask whether players who contributed could do so for most teams. Again, relative value matters.
We'll start with the highest-graded class -- it should be no surprise -- and go in order of best to worst grades, with teams in alphabetical order for grades that are the same. And click the links below to go directly to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
New Orleans Saints
Post-draft grade: B
Where do we start with the class that had both the offensive and defensive rookies of the year? It was sensational, one of the best rookie groups since I've been covering the draft. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore locked down one side of the field and had five interceptions. Ryan Ramczyk started every game, making a flawless switch from left tackle to right tackle once Terron Armstead came back healthy. Safety Marcus Williams is going to be remembered for the touchdown he gave up in the divisional-round loss to the Vikings, but he's a really good player. He had four interceptions and 71 tackles.
Editor's Picks
McShay's best value picks from 2017 NFL draft
The Saints managed to win both rookie of the year awards, finding some of the draft's best values. Todd McShay picks out the rookies who provided the most return on investment in Year 1.
Then there's running back Alvin Kamara, a pick I questioned last year. Here's what I wrote: "A big question mark here was the value given up to draft Kamara. Even if you question any possibilities beyond 2017 for Mark Ingram or Adrian Peterson, trading a second-rounder to move up and take my No. 88 overall player is iffy."
OK, so the Saints traded a 2018 second-round pick to move into the third round in 2017 -- and got one of the most versatile backs in the NFL. Kamara led all rookies in receptions (81) and yards after the catch (696), and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. He had 14 total touchdowns. I got this one wrong. Absolutely.
New Orleans also got meaningful snaps from Alex Anzalone, who started the first four games before hurting his shoulder and being placed on injured reserve, and defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who had two sacks.
Again, this is a fantastic class. Enjoy this A, Saints.
New grade: A
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/11 Marshon Lattimore CB OHIO STATE
1/32 Ryan Ramczyk OT WISCONSIN
2/42 Marcus Williams S UTAH
3/67 Alvin Kamara RB TENNESSEE
3/76 Alex Anzalone ILB FLORIDA
3/103 Trey Hendrickson DE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
6/196 Al-Quadin Muhammad DE MIAMI
Buffalo Bills
Post-draft grade: A-
This is a great class, and it gets a boost with Buffalo picking up an extra first-round pick in 2018 for trading down from No. 10 with Kansas City. The Bills already have used that extra draft capital to get in contention to move up in April's draft and pick their quarterback of the future, though they still like fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman -- I wrote last year that I wouldn't be surprised if Peterman, now known for his disastrous five-interception debut, "is the starter in a year or two" -- and added AJ McCarron on a short-term deal. After moving on from Tyrod Taylor, they have to find an answer there. This was a 2017 playoff team, but the Bills overachieved.
As for the picks, first-round cornerback Tre'Davious White started every game and had four interceptions. Now they need to figure out the spot across from him. Dion Dawkins was so good filling in for Cordy Glenn at left tackle that Buffalo traded Glenn and installed Dawkins on the blind side. Linebacker Matt Milano had 43 tackles in limited snaps and looks like a useful Day 3 pick. I liked the pick of wide receiver Zay Jones on Day 2, but he did not have a great rookie season, catching only 27 of 74 targets.
If Jones improves and Peterman turns into a competent starter, this class is an A without question.
New grade: B+
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/27 Tre'Davious White CB LSU
2/37 Zay Jones WR EAST CAROLINA
2/63 Dion Dawkins G TEMPLE
5/163 Matt Milano OLB BOSTON COLLEGE
5/171 Nathan Peterman QB PITTSBURGH
6/195 Tanner Vallejo OLB BOISE STATE
Houston Texans
Post-draft grade: C+
Let's get this out of the way: I've been accused of hating Deshaun Watson. That's just not true. In reality, I ranked him as my No. 3 quarterback in a class that wasn't very deep. I had him No. 34 on my Big Board, which put him at the top of the second round. I liked him, but I thought he had some flaws.
Houston obviously thought a lot of him, moving up 13 spots and giving up its first-rounder in 2018. What happened next? After a rocky first half from Tom Savage in Week 1, Watson starred, throwing 19 touchdown passes in only six starts. As I noted with regard to my All-Rookie team, that's more passing TDs than Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor and Marcus Mariota had all season. Bill O'Brien did a fantastic job of tailoring the offense to Watson's strengths -- more movement passes, more run-pass options -- and the Texans were legitimately fun to watch. Then it all came crashing down when Watson tore his ACL in practice in early November. Houston went 1-8 afterward. And those 2018 picks it dealt to Cleveland to get Watson (and get rid of Brock Osweiler) ended up being extremely valuable -- Nos. 4 and 35 overall.
Now, I suspect the Texans' front office would make those moves again in a heartbeat. Watson could be a superstar (though two ACL injuries is a concern), and finding a superstar at quarterback can change the direction of a franchise. Even after a 4-12 season, this team is headed in the right direction -- assuming Watson returns healthy.
Houston also got production out of linebacker Zach Cunningham (82 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble) and running back D'Onta Foreman (two touchdowns before tearing his Achilles in November). Day 3 picks Julien Davenport, Carlos Watkins and Kyle Fuller all started games too, while undrafted free agent Dylan Cole had 32 total tackles and two interceptions in part-time duty.
So that's a lot of production from rookies, but it's not quite an A because of what it gave up in 2018.
New grade: B+
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/12 Deshaun Watson QB CLEMSON
2/57 Zach Cunningham ILB VANDERBILT
3/89 D'Onta Foreman RB TEXAS
4/130 Julien Davenport OT BUCKNELL
4/142 Carlos Watkins DT CLEMSON
5/169 Treston Decoud CB OREGON STATE
7/243 Kyle Fuller C BAYLOR
Jacksonville Jaguars
Post-draft grade: C+
I quibbled with the Jaguars taking Leonard Fournette at No. 4 overall -- if I were a GM, I've long said I'd never take a running back anywhere close to the top 10 -- but there's no denying his immediate impact. He had 1,040 yards (only 3.9 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns, plus another 36 catches for 302 yards. That catch total is almost identical to his total in three seasons at LSU, so it's an example of a college system sometimes working against a player's strengths -- Fournette has decent hands. He also added four rushing touchdowns in the playoffs as the Jags were a few plays away from making the Super Bowl. It's a defensible top pick for Tom Coughlin's first draft back in charge.
The Jacksonville offense wants to be run-first with Blake Bortles at the helm, and second-round pick Cam Robinson, who was forced to play left tackle immediately after Branden Albert retired, had a strong rookie season. He started 18 of the Jags' 19 games, though his 10 total penalties was among the most in the league. The Jaguars also added deep threats for Bortles in Dede Westbrook, who had 27 catches for 339 yards and a touchdown in just seven games, and undrafted free agent Keelan Cole, who averaged 17.8 yards per catch and had 748 receiving yards. They'll have to step up with Allen Robinson gone, but those are stellar starts. Two more undrafted free agents -- linebacker Donald Payne (12 special-teams tackles) and defensive tackle Eli Ankou (15 tackles, 1.5 sacks) -- pitched in.
Jacksonville is clearly trending up, and it will have a handful of 2018 starters from this class. That's impressive. Now it gets to pick outside the top 10 for the first time since 2007. Yes, seriously.
New grade: B+
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/4 Leonard Fournette RB LSU
2/34 Cam Robinson OT ALABAMA
3/68 Dawuane Smoot DE ILLINOIS
4/110 Dede Westbrook WR OKLAHOMA
5/148 Blair Brown ILB OHIO
7/222 Jalen Myrick CB MINNESOTA
7/240 Marquez Williams FB MIAMI
Philadelphia Eagles
Post-draft grade: B+
Here's what I wrote to close out the Eagles' grade last year: "It's not a home run class, but the Eagles got better."
Well, yeah. Did anyone last April think that these Eagles could win Super Bowl LII? But they made some really smart free-agent signings and trades, their sophomore quarterback took a huge leap (and their backup starred in clutch time) and the rookie class produced a few guys who helped push them over the line.
Pass-rusher Derek Barnett had six total sacks (one in the playoffs), cornerback Rasul Douglas chipped in with two interceptions and seven pass breakups, and wide receiver Mack Hollins added 16 catches, including one for a touchdown, and will likely play a much bigger role in 2018. Undrafted running back Corey Clement played his way onto the field and had six regular-season touchdowns. We also have to count kicker Jake Elliott, the fifth-round pick by the Bengals who was cut and picked up by Philadelphia. He only went on to make some clutch kicks in the Super Bowl (and miss an extra point, to be fair).
This is a solid class, and it could be in the A territory at this time next year if cornerback Sidney Jones sees more playing time after sitting out most of 2017 with an Achilles injury.
New grade: B+
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/14 Derek Barnett DE TENNESSEE
2/43 Sidney Jones CB WASHINGTON
3/99 Rasul Douglas CB WEST VIRGINIA
4/118 Mack Hollins WR NORTH CAROLINA
4/132 Donnel Pumphrey RB SAN DIEGO STATE
5/166 Shelton Gibson WR WEST VIRGINIA
5/184 Nathan Gerry S NEBRASKA
6/214 Elijah Qualls DT WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh Steelers
Post-draft grade: B+
The Steelers filled their top needs on my board with their first three picks, and two of those three had productive rookie seasons. Pass-rusher T.J. Watt was tied for second in sacks among rookies with seven and also had 52 total tackles and an interception. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster led all rookies in receiving yards (917) and touchdowns (seven) while averaging 15.8 yards per catch. I wrote last year that Smith-Schuster has No. 1 receiver potential, but I didn't think he'd be this good this early. He could be a star -- on an already-loaded offense. Third-round cornerback Cameron Sutton, meanwhile, played only 108 defensive snaps.
Running back James Conner played sparingly and will sit behind Le'Veon Bell for at least one more season. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs took a redshirt year. The Steelers used a sixth-round pick on long-snapper Colin Holba, cut him, and then Holba landed in Jacksonville, playing in the Jags' divisional-round upset over Pittsburgh.
Smith-Schuster's emergence and Watt's steady play keep this grade the same, and I expect Sutton to have a much bigger role -- potentially in a move to safety -- in 2018.
New grade: B+
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/30 T.J. Watt OLB WISCONSIN
2/62 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR USC
3/94 Cameron Sutton CB TENNESSEE
3/105 James Conner RB PITTSBURGH
4/135 Joshua Dobbs QB TENNESSEE
5/173 Brian Allen CB UTAH
6/213 Colin Holba LS LOUISVILLE
7/248 Keion Adams DE WESTERN MICHIGAN
San Francisco 49ers
Post-draft grade: A-
I had quarterback down as one of the 49ers' top draft needs, but I thought they reached for C.J. Beathard in the third round. He ended up starting five games (and playing poorly) until John Lynch & Co. dealt for Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline, and now Beathard is entrenched as the No. 2. After winning five straight to close the season with Jimmy G at the helm, the 49ers feel good about their future.
Elsewhere in Lynch's first draft, top pick Solomon Thomas had 41 tackles and three sacks in 12 starts. I expect much more in Year 2. Reuben Foster, for whom the 49ers traded back into the first round, was an absolute stud when he was on the field, with seven tackles for loss and 72 total tackles in 10 games. He's the reason the 49ers parted ways with longtime middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman, but Foster's off-field issues could derail his career. Tight end George Kittle had a heck of a first year, catching 43 passes for 515 yards and two touchdowns. San Francisco also got useful contributions from cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (two interceptions in nine starts), wide receiver Trent Taylor (43 catches, 430 yards, two TDs) and cornerback Adrian Colbert (32 tackles, two forced fumbles, one interception). And undrafted free agents Matt Breida and Kendrick Bourne played too.
This is a deep class, but it's not an A. Foster's future and Thomas' ceiling are still question marks.
New grade: B+
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/3 Solomon Thomas DT STANFORD
1/31 Reuben Foster ILB ALABAMA
3/66 Ahkello Witherspoon CB COLORADO
3/104 C.J. Beathard QB IOWA
4/121 Joe Williams RB UTAH
5/146 George Kittle TE IOWA
5/177 Trent Taylor WR LOUISIANA TECH
6/198 D.J. Jones DT OLE MISS
6/202 Pita Taumoepenu DE UTAH
7/229 Adrian Colbert CB MIAMI
Green Bay Packers
Post-draft grade: B+
This was a solid (if unspectacular) haul, as it looks like the Packers' first two picks will be starters in the secondary in 2018. Cornerback Kevin King, who I thought could have been a first-round pick, had 27 tackles and four pass breakups and started five games, but a shoulder injury ended his season early. Safety Josh Jones had 67 tackles, two sacks and an interception in seven starts and appears likely to take over for free agent Morgan Burnett.
Day 3 running backs Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones combined for 1,004 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns while filling in for Ty Montgomery. They might have flown under the radar because of a deep running back class, but Green Bay's depth here is tremendous. Third-round pick Montravius Adams played only 60 defensive snaps because of a foot injury, and fourth-round pick Vince Biegel was mostly a special-teams contributor.
New grade: B
Round/Pick Name Pos College
2/33 Kevin King CB WASHINGTON
2/61 Josh Jones S NC STATE
3/93 Montravius Adams DT AUBURN
4/108 Vince Biegel OLB WISCONSIN
4/134 Jamaal Williams RB BYU
5/175 Deangelo Yancey WR PURDUE
5/182 Aaron Jones RB UTEP
6/212 Kofi Amichia G SOUTH FLORIDA
7/238 Devante Mays RB UTAH STATE
7/247 Malachi Dupre WR LSU
Kansas City Chiefs
Post-draft grade: C+
The Chiefs made the big trade to move up and get their quarterback, taking Patrick Mahomes off the board before other QB-needy teams got the chance. Here's what I wrote about this class last year: " ... this class will hinge on Patrick Mahomes because Kansas City bet big that he's the successor to Alex Smith. Giving up a third-round pick and next year's first to move up 17 spots was a ton for a team with immediate needs elsewhere and some defenders getting up there in age."
Now Smith is gone to Washington, and Mahomes is the guy. We know he's raw. We know he's toolsy. We don't know how good he's going to be in 2018. But Kansas City likes him enough to hand over the keys to the offense, and I think the new front office -- GM John Dorsey is now in Cleveland -- is just fine with how that deal turned out.
Kansas City had two huge contributors in this class and virtually nothing beyond that. Kareem Hunt was an absolute steal in Round 3, leading the NFL in rushing (1,327 yards) and scoring 11 total touchdowns. He's a guy to build around. Then there's kicker Harrison Butker, who was drafted in the seventh round by Carolina but ended up setting records for the Chiefs after being signed off the practice squad early in the season.
This class could go down as an all-timer if Mahomes stars and Hunt has a good career. Based on 2017 production, though, it was in the middle of the pack.
New grade: B
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/10 Patrick Mahomes II QB TEXAS TECH
2/59 Tanoh Kpassagnon DE VILLANOVA
3/86 Kareem Hunt RB TOLEDO
4/139 Jehu Chesson WR MICHIGAN
5/183 Marcus Eligwe ILB GEORGIA SOUTHERN
6/218 Leon McQuay III S USC
Los Angeles Chargers
Post-draft grade: A
This was one of my favorite classes when the draft ended, and I still like the long-term outlook. But it has to get dinged, and injuries played a huge part. Top pick Mike Williams never quite looked himself after hurting his back over the summer, finishing with only 11 catches in 10 games. And second-round pick Forrest Lamp, my top-ranked guard, tore his ACL in the preseason and never got onto the field.
The best player in this class was fifth-round pick Desmond King, the Chargers' primary slot cornerback, who finished with 71 tackles, four sacks and an interception. Guard Dan Feeney started nine games and is an important part of the team's future. L.A. also got key contributions from two undrafted free agents: Austin Ekeler averaged 5.5 yards per carry and pitched in 27 catches, while Michael Davis had 14 special-teams tackles.
This can still be a really solid class if Williams is healthy in Year 2 and if Lamp becomes a solid starter at the other guard spot. Coming off a 9-7 season in a wide-open AFC West, why can't the Chargers win the division in 2018? Philip Rivers has weapons, and the defense is loaded with young talent.
New grade: B
Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/7 Mike Williams WR CLEMSON
2/38 Forrest Lamp G WESTERN KENTUCKY
3/71 Dan Feeney G INDIANA
4/113 Rayshawn Jenkins S MIAMI
5/151 Desmond King CB IOWA
6/190 Sam Tevi OT UTAH
7/225 Isaac Rochell DE NOTRE DAME
Los Angeles Rams
Post-draft grade: C-
This was my lowest-graded class last April. Here's what I wrote at the time: "It would be a lot easier to stamp this draft grade "INCOMPLETE" and move on, because so much of it is wrapped up in Jared Goff. He is the reason they didn't have a first-round pick in 2017, and I certainly don't think it's fair to close the book on him."
You know what happened next. Goff put up 28 touchdown passes to only seven picks under new coach Sean McVay, and the Rams won the NFC West. It was a massive improvement across the board (don't forget about what Wade Phillips did with that defense, too).
This class had several productive pieces. Cooper Kupp was the Rams' primary slot receiver, catching 62 passes for 869 yards and five touchdowns. I had receivers ranked higher on my board in the third round, but there's no doubt he was one of the most physically ready wideouts in the entire class. (He did drop five passes.) Tight end Gerald Everett flashed at times but ended the season with only 16 catches and two touchdowns. I expect more targets for him in Year 2. John Johnson started 11 games at safety and had 71 tackles, an interception and five pass breakups, but I think the Rams could still look to upgrade. Wide receiver Josh Reynolds had a touchdown catch. Linebacker Samson Ebukam had 31 tackles and two sacks.
All in all, this is a steady class that might not have a star. But that's OK -- they traded their first-round pick to grab Goff the year before.
New grade: B
Round/Pick Name Pos College
2/44 Gerald Everett TE SOUTH ALABAMA
3/69 Cooper Kupp WR EASTERN WASHINGTON
3/91 John Johnson S BOSTON COLLEGE
4/117 Josh Reynolds WR TEXAS A&M
4/125 Samson Ebukam OLB EASTERN WASHINGTON
6/189 Tanzel Smart DT TULANE
6/206 Sam Rogers FB VIRGINIA TECH
7/234 Ejuan Price OLB PITTSBURGH