Nothing bucs specific.
Bold offseason moves for all 32 NFL teams
Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move always helps -- whether by dramatically improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise. Below, Football Outsiders suggests a bold move for each team. Some of these are realistic, others are more far-fetched, but each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
Pieces may refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here.
Note: Moves are suggested for each team independently of the moves suggested for other teams.
AFC East
Jarvis Landry has been a receptions machine during his NFL career. Might the Dolphins find a fertile trade market for him? Andres Leiva/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire
Buffalo Bills: Sign Tyrod Taylor to a short extension
This will almost certainly not happen, as the Bills have done essentially everything they can over the past year to degrade their quarterback in the eyes of the market. They've refused to commit to him. They drafted a quarterback. They pretended that Nathan Peterman was better than Taylor and created one of the most laughable moments of the 2017 season.
Meanwhile, Taylor had a solid season. He ranked 14th in QBR and 21st in passing DVOA, ahead of several quarterbacks who have secured jobs for next season, such as Eli Manning. Even if the Bills don't consider Taylor a franchise quarterback and want to go after one in the draft, Kansas City's handling of Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes last season is a smart blueprint. Make sure the rookie isn't rushed into anything, and perhaps let Taylor re-establish himself in the eyes of the market so he's more valuable in a trade next year.
Miami Dolphins: Trade Jarvis Landry for whatever the market bears
The NFL's statistical analysis commentariat has set up a cottage industry around Jarvis Landry takes. (Here's a deep dive into how he's overrated by our numbers.) Target sponges are important, and efficiency ratings suffer when a wideout is a key part of the offense, so take this with a grain of salt.
By franchising Landry early in the process, the Dolphins piqued interest among many well-sourced NFL types that they were looking for a trade. Here's the bold take: If all the Dolphins can get for Landry is a mid-round pick, they should take it. They are one of the few teams that are up against the cap in a serious way. Landry isn't one of the Dolphins' most important players, and they have young wideouts such as Leonte Carroo itching for a fair chance.
New England Patriots: Sign up Julius Peppers for a James Harrison-like late-career ring-hunting tour
The Patriots sprung a leak on pass defense last season, particularly in the first four games. But one problem that was ever present was pass pressure. New England finished 10th in adjusted sack rate, thanks to a high number of coverage sacks, but ranked 27th in pressure rate, per statistics from Sports Info Solutions.
Growth from youngsters such as Deatrich Wise Jr. and a strong debut from Derek Rivers in 2018 might be a solution, but the Patriots shouldn't stand pat on hopes. Free agency looks dire for pass-rushers, with Ziggy Ansah already tagged and DeMarcus Lawrence a tag candidate. But one player who was phenomenal last year, even at 38, was Peppers. Peppers had 9.5 sacks and 11 hurries (according to Sports Info Solutions charting) in just 500 snaps. The Charlotte Observer suggested that Peppers may only want to play for Carolina, but you have to wonder if a ring chase with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick would change his mind.
New York Jets: Don't spend the entire boat on Kirk Cousins
Last week, news came of the Jets planning to make Cousins an offer he couldn't refuse. It makes some sense. The Jets have almost $95 million in cap room after parting ways with DE Muhammad Wilkerson. That gives them more cap space than anybody except the Browns.
But ask the Lions and Ravens what it's like to overpay a quarterback so drastically and you'll understand that acquiring Cousins might make the Jets win the Winner's Curse. Both Detroit and Baltimore are in so deep with their quarterbacks that they've spent the past two seasons managing around their huge cap numbers. Cousins is a solid, reliable quarterback and he'll get the Jets closer to good than they'd be without him. But if they have to sign him to a Ndamukong Suh-level contract, they're locking themselves into business by inertia for a long time.
-- Rivers McCown
AFC North
Will 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson find a new home in the AFC North?
Baltimore Ravens: Trade up to select Quenton Nelson
The Ravens' interior line took a beating in 2017, and it doesn't figure to improve with the likely free-agent departures of center Ryan Jensen and swingman James Hurst. The line's standard-bearer, star guard Marshal Yanda, broke his ankle early in the 2017 season and is 33 years old. Injuries also ravaged the other guards, Alex Lewis and Nico Siragusa.
Guard is not a sexy position, but since Kelechi Osemele was allowed to depart after 2015, the Ravens' offense has missed his athleticism and nastiness. Enter Nelson. The Golden Domer is one of the best prospects in the draft, position be damned, with textbook technique and violent tendencies that would restore some roar to the Ravens' attack. Alas, he won't possibly last until pick No. 16, where the Ravens currently reside.
General manager Ozzie Newsome is in the process of ceding the big chair in the front office to longtime consigliere Eric DeCosta. What better way to declare the position as yours than to make a bold trade up in the first round? The Ravens would likely have to get in front of the Bears, who pick eighth and would snap up Nelson in a Second City Minute. The price wouldn't be cheap -- this year's third and next year's second, in addition to No. 16 overall, perhaps. But the Jets, at No. 6, might go for it, especially if they land Kirk Cousins in free agency. And Tampa Bay, at No. 7, would almost assuredly trade back to stock up on defensive talent. And the Ravens would have the next Yanda alongside the real thing to steamroll enemy defenses for the next few years.
Cincinnati Bengals: Draft Lamar Jackson
After his seven professional seasons, there is nothing left to discuss about what Andy Dalton is and isn't as a quarterback. He's good enough to take a talented team to the playoffs, and keep a mediocre one from bottoming out. Winning a title (or even a playoff game) seems beyond his capability, yet he's too competent to position the Bengals for a top draft pick. He's the Stealers Wheel of NFL quarterbacks: Stuck in the middle with you.
Alas, owner Mike Brown doesn't seem to mind endless mediocrity, but Cincy's fans are surely dying for the team to strive for greatness. Jackson's upside promises just that.
Yes, the Bengals have a problematic offensive line, but top-notch quarterback play often has a salutary effect on lines, even those with average talent. With Jackson, the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner who is not only Louisville's all-time leading passer but rusher as well, you get a player who solves the line problem in two ways. His electrifying movement, comparable to Michael Vick or pre-injury Robert Griffin III, would get him out of sacks and pressure that usually fell Dalton. Meanwhile, Jackson's ability as a passer would force defenses to alter their schemes. Too often defenses can comfortably ignore threats to various parts of the field, given Dalton's limitations. Certainly A.J. Green would welcome a more accurate deep passer.
Jackson enters the league with question marks (as do all the signal-callers in the draft), which is why he should be available when the Bengals pick at No. 12. But with Dalton in place for 2018 at a very reasonable cap figure, Jackson can learn from a high-quality cognitive quarterback while the Bengals win their usual seven to 10 games. Then, ideally, in 2019 they can marry Dalton's pre-snap deductive reasoning with Jackson's explosiveness post-snap, and coach Marvin Lewis will get a postseason win before the end of his Cincinnati tenure (assuming the world doesn't end first).
Cleveland Browns: Trade the house for Aaron Rodgers
As Bruce Wayne (Michael Keaton version) once said: "You wanna get nuts? Let's get nuts!" So let's construct a semi-plausible rationale here for the mega-trade of all mega-trades.
The Browns are in the unique position of being able to (A) offer enough draft currency -- let's say this year's No. 1 and No. 4 overall picks, this year's No. 33 and No. 63 picks (both second-rounders) and next year's first- or second-rounder -- to actually entice the Packers, who love them some homegrown talent, into trading Rodgers and (B) have enough cap space (over $100 million) to offer Rodgers the mega-contract that is surely coming his way (he's an unrestricted free agent after 2019). That combination might not be seen again for some time.
But won't that demolish the renovation plans for the rebuilding Browns, you ask? Not so much as you might think. Yes, Cleveland needs players in plenty of areas, but the Browns aren't nearly as devoid of talent as their 0-16 record last year would suggest. Assuming Joe Thomas comes back and is healthy, the offensive line is robust. The Browns' skill position players include running back Duke Johnson, receiver Josh Gordon and emerging tight end David Njoku, only 22 years old this coming season. The front seven played well last year, and Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers, Joe Schobert and the other young Browns will surely only get better with experience.
What they lack -- now, then and forever -- is a quarterback. Why take a chance on a rookie when you can get the best QB on the planet? Rodgers is the ultimate equalizer. Put him on this roster and the Browns suddenly are not just a playoff contender right away, but a Super Bowl dark horse. Assuming three to five years of good-to-great play from Rodgers, Cleveland could turn its fortunes around and then some. And it's not like the Browns can't add other players -- they would still have picks No. 35, 65, 103 and 125 in this year's draft, plus plenty of cap room even after paying Rodgers.
Why would Green Bay deal its two-time MVP? Well, Rodgers will be 35 in December, is coming off an injury that cost him most of the season, and the aforementioned contract extension will undoubtedly make him the highest-paid player in the league (at least until the next quarterback extension). Getting all those picks would allow the Pack to add four premium talents this season, including a quarterback to "replace" Rodgers, and give the team immense cap flexibility to fill in other holes. Meanwhile, Rodgers has been outspoken lately about certain dissatisfaction with Packers management, including their lack of play in the free-agent market, and the team letting Rodgers' quarterback coach, Alex Van Pelt, depart for Cincinnati without consulting him. Maybe the Packers will want to give Rodgers a taste of what life is like in the Factory of Sadness for his troubles.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Trade Le'Veon Bell
The Steelers' defense was shredded by Jacksonville, of all teams, in the playoffs, and was never the same after linebacker Ryan Shazier's injury (though Pittsburgh managed a respectable ninth in defensive DVOA for the season). Now that we know Shazier won't make it back on the field in 2018 (and possibly beyond), Pittsburgh's defense needs help, in the back seven especially. Unfortunately, the Steelers' salary situation (the team is right on the edge of the cap) will make it tough to add players -- and signing Bell to the rich contract he envisions would require the team to cut loose guys it could use on defense.
Meanwhile, Bell, while a tremendous player, quietly wasn't the game-wrecker in 2017 he had been in the past. He ranked eighth in DVOA among running backs and only 28th in efficiency when it came to catching passes out of the backfield. He did manage to stay healthy for the entire season, but that has not been the trend during his career. And while Bell remains a special talent, the Steelers' passing attack will allow the team to score in bushels with or without a standout runner.
So deal Bell to the 49ers for the No. 9 overall pick, or perhaps to Philly for No. 32 and a defensive player or two (the other Keystone State squad has plenty of them). This will allow the Steelers to restore their defense to what we expect of them, while keeping financially flexible for the years ahead.
-- Robert Weintraub
AFC South
Safety Eric Reid would fill a big need for the Texans. AP Photo/Tony Avelar
Houston Texans: Sign Eric Reid, then draft Iowa's entire O-line
For a team one season removed from a playoff win that has since found a potential franchise quarterback, the Texans are in a strangely difficult situation. Their defense, ranked ninth in DVOA in 2016, dropped to an injury-ravaged 23rd in 2017. The franchise quarterback, Deshaun Watson, tore his ACL in October. Other top-tier starters from 2016 such as Duane Brown and A.J. Bouye are now long gone. The fourth-worst record in the league would usually mean a premium draft pick, but Houston's first- and second-round picks belong to Cleveland, sent over in trades for the pick to acquire Watson and offload the salary of Brock Osweiler.
The Texans have two remaining assets: cap space (most estimates give them around $60 million free) and a wealth of mid- to late-round picks, including three in the third round alone. Of course, this does not make up for losing the fourth and 36th overall selections, and would not be enough to swing a blockbuster trade (or even to win the annual Joe Thomas Imaginary Trade sweepstakes) -- but it's also not nothing.
For their $60 million and picks, the Texans urgently need to find a strong safety and an entire offensive line. The first of those is simpler: Throw whatever money it takes to persuade Reid to come over from San Francisco. That would give Houston a versatile player capable of playing moneybacker, slot corner or a more traditional safety spot from down to down. The team could then theoretically find four Day 2 and Day 3 offensive linemen from one college with a reputation for producing NFL talent -- let's say Iowa, trading up into the second round for center James Daniels, then picking up teammates Sean Welsh, Ike Boettger and Boone Myers with later selections. Such a strategy would alleviate some of the chemistry concerns that come with building an entire offensive line from scratch.
Indianapolis Colts: Plan to be without Andrew Luck
For too many years now, the Colts have been stuck relying on the talents of a transcendent quarterback to overcome the limitations of the rest of the roster. Peyton Manning was able to drag a subpar Colts squad to the playoffs in 2010 before a neck injury cost him all of 2011. Similarly, Andrew Luck carried the Colts to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons but has now missed games in each of the following three -- and has made only 22 appearances total since the end of 2014. This decade, the Colts have missed the playoffs every time their starting quarterback has missed a game because of injury. Even if Luck does make the Week 1 start -- which at the time of this writing is far from guaranteed -- the Colts cannot rely on him lasting the season with the team on his back.
Jacoby Brissett will not be confused for Luck anytime soon, but he has shown signs that he can operate a professional offense at a functional level. New coach Frank Reich, one part of the Eagles brain trust that turned Nick Foles back into a playoff-caliber quarterback, can immediately look to build an offense that will allow Brissett to be successful. If Luck is then able to go, so much the better; if not, the team cannot afford to be caught cold again. Installing an offense that plays to the strengths of Brissett will allow the team to overcome any loss of Luck, whereas surely any offense Brissett could run, Luck could run better. With the right planning, Luck's return should be the piece that finally takes the Colts over the top -- not merely the savior returning to make a bad team competitive.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trade up to draft a quarterback
2018 NFL Free Agency
Kirk Cousins. Jimmy Graham. Le'Veon Bell. This class could get wild. Here's everything to know heading into free agency, which begins March 14.
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If the Vikings are the most obvious team to allegedly be one quarterback away from a championship, the Jaguars are their exact AFC counterpart: a defense-first team that won its division, two playoff games, and finally bowed out one game away from the Super Bowl. Unlike the Vikings, though, the Jaguars do have a quarterback signed for 2018: Blake Bortles signed a new three-year contract last week.
The structure of Bortles' deal is interesting. Although he is signed to the Jaguars for three years instead of one, at approximately $18 million in base salary per year, the average falls below the injury-guaranteed figure of $19.5 million from his fifth-year option. While it indicates some degree of confidence in the QB, it is also not prohibitive for the team to escape in the likely event Bortles does not improve further. This lets the Jaguars stick with Bortles in the short term, see how he develops, and move on to his replacement if he either stagnates or regresses in 2018.
They should not wait. This is the richest, deepest class of both free-agent and draft-eligible quarterbacks in living memory. The Jaguars do not have the cap flexibility to compete for Kirk Cousins, but the depth of the draft class probably means somebody, somewhere is going to slide. If Louisville's Lamar Jackson, to give one example, falls far enough that Jacksonville could trade up to grab him, that might even allow the Jaguars to move on from Bortles sooner -- and firm them up as favorites for next season's AFC South title.
Tennessee Titans: Sign one top edge rusher, draft another
The boldest move the Titans could possibly have made this offseason would have been to fire the head coach who took them from 5-27 over the 2014 and 2015 seasons to two straight 9-7 records and the franchise's first playoff win since 2003. They duly obliged, leaving little scope for anything we could suggest to top that.
But on the player personnel side, the Titans are odd in that while they appear to have few glaring weaknesses now that the questionable strategic vision has been discarded, they also do not have any overwhelming strengths. So much of what happens in 2018 depends on the vision and approach of new coach Mike Vrabel and his staff.
General manger Jon Robinson has stated that he intends to be aggressive this offseason, a statement evidenced by the aforementioned coaching change. Aggressive play in the modern NFL usually begins with the defense, specifically the pass rush. The Titans have the cap room to upgrade their aging pass rush by signing the best free-agent edge rusher available -- probably Trent Murphy or Adrian Clayborn, assuming DeMarcus Lawrence (like Ezekiel Ansah) is franchise-tagged. Tennessee would then have a good chance to grab a second edge rusher in the draft, such as LSU's Arden Key. A combination of Clayborn and Key would add a much-needed injection of pass-rush spice to a presently bland Titans defense, and could make a big difference in a division not exactly famed for its dominant offensive tackles.
-- Andrew Potter