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Apr 6 2017 11:22am
Quote (Goomshill @ 6 Apr 2017 19:16)
Okay what if to riff on that theory, he's another simpler one- Assad is wary of the Russian influence in Syria. He was happy to cater to them with military bases and be under the Russian umbrella, but he doesn't want to become a puppet extension of Putins, and with all the Russian presence in Syria he sees the writing on the wall. So he rationalizes that the US/EU won't be pulled into the war even if he commits atrocities, but they *will* exert pressure on Russia as their next best recourse. Thus, he uses chemical weapons to provoke the west into pressuring Russia to cut support for Assad. They've already driven the rebels out of every stronghold and the syrian army can mop up, so even if russia cut him off entirely he's not to worried when the only fight left is the kurds advancing on raqqa. He'll still have his hands full rejoining his fractured country, but he won't have to worry about being overthrown.


assad has only a tiny army of his own, there isnt much left for him. almost all of "his" current army is made up by Shiite mercenaries and russian troops. without his allies, he does NOT have the resources to finish the reconquering of his country. without his allies, there is no guarantee that he would be able to withstand another public uprising that could take place some years from now.

and deliberately committing a crime to put pressure on his allies (and not himself) sounds illogical to the max.
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Apr 6 2017 11:53am
it was false flag
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Apr 6 2017 12:08pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Apr 6 2017 05:14pm)
Im pretty sure Israel (i means the far right nationalist governement in charge) would support an action/manipulation, even killing children, just to justify a future agression or simply contribute in destabilizing the situation. It's not "jews", because "jews" arent all sack of reject zionists extremists.

Actually im not blindly trusting medias like some people here seems to do, so "yeah" i will stay in the uncertainty.
And dont forget what i said about iraq 2 casualities.



First, The right nationalist governement in Israel exists for more than 20 years. Netanyahu himself as a PM for 8 years. I doubt that they will start to support those sorts of action all of a sudden.
Second, Syria is in complete rubble. They are not a threat at anyone at the moment. As far as i know, everyone are trying to push themselfs as far as possible from that mess.
And finally, I really dont know much about iraq so i cant tell about the rest of the stuff you wrote.

This post was edited by WhiteSouned on Apr 6 2017 12:09pm
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Apr 6 2017 12:15pm
Quote (Hizkuntza @ Apr 6 2017 11:21am)
And the "Western Powers" are going to do what differently, exactly? Only the delusional think US & co. will give Assad a free pass after ISIS is defeated. Israel in particular is existentially threatened by Assad's reign due to his historical hostility and his symbiotic ties with Iran; likewise


Israel is not remotely threatened by Assad. He's not even as much aligned as a shiite threat as Iran/Hezbollah. They'd be happy to have Assad in power and keeping his sunni population crushed under heel

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the Trump administration won't give Iran any quarter. Even if the Commander-in-Chief is a dimwit the State Department will realize "oh look, a strong Iran foothold right above Israel" (on top of Iraq being increasingly pro-Iran).


We're fighting Iran's war by directing the kurds right now. Remember when Obama changed the balance of powers by working with Iran?
We're no longer dealing in black and white middle east policy. We leverage our support for Iran to put pressure on the Saudis and stay pragmatic about it, we don't blindly attack anything Iranian anymore.

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Then there's the whole thing about America supporting what are basically secessionists in Northern Syria and Iraq.


Good for us, the more pressure we can put on Erdogan the better. Theres a reason we're making sure turkey doesn't get to move on raqqa even though the kurds have zero intention of occupying it

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Assad has "provoked" everyone from his own citizens to the world powers because murder is the only thing that keeps his regime alive. People here talk like he's some sort of elected official who needs to carefully watch what he does or says. He doesn't.


Assad is a rational actor who will act in his own self interests as best he can. He's not a cardboard 2 dimensional villain twirling a snidely whiplash moustache. He is a strongman dictator and he knows it. He learned his lessons from dear papa in Hama- he's only as cruel as he is calculating

This post was edited by Goomshill on Apr 6 2017 12:16pm
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Apr 6 2017 01:44pm
So how many of its children has the Syrian government murdered today?
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Apr 6 2017 01:44pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-weighing-military-options-following-chemical-weapons-attack-in-syria/2017/04/06/0c59603a-1ae8-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_syria-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b7a1d0bc9955


Looks like the hawks will get what they want. This is so cold war, South America esque. Manufacture some reason ( the chemical attack) and use that as the catalyst to overthrow someone. Our resident hawks i'm sure are very happy that we're on the eve of more dying and escalation. Skinned you might finally get what you want, Assad overthrown, more refugees flooding and maybe even a little bit of Alawite genocide.
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Apr 6 2017 02:11pm
Anyway as far as conspiracy theories go, whatcha all think about the 'jet fuel can't melt steel beams' equivalents here? Particularly people noting the amount of rescuers at the scene wearing no gloves and handling the victims
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Apr 6 2017 02:14pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 6 Apr 2017 22:11)
Anyway as far as conspiracy theories go, whatcha all think about the 'jet fuel can't melt steel beams' equivalents here? Particularly people noting the amount of rescuers at the scene wearing no gloves and handling the victims


well, the rescuers at the time didnt know what hit them, they didnt know if it was a dangerous substance that requires being handled with protection. they saw their neighbors, friends, children being sick, so they rushed there to help them. I wouldnt read too much into it.
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Apr 6 2017 02:24pm
Link dead children or i call fake news
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Apr 6 2017 02:25pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 6 2017 02:14pm)
well, the rescuers at the time didnt know what hit them, they didnt know if it was a dangerous substance that requires being handled with protection. they saw their neighbors, friends, children being sick, so they rushed there to help them. I wouldnt read too much into it.


Sarin absorbs through the skin rapidly, killing within minutes. The rescuers would be dying on the videos if the victims were 'fresh'. If people were actually hit by chemical weapons, handling their corpses in the immediate aftermath would kill you pretty darn quickly
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