Quote (Pollster @ Aug 8 2016 06:02pm)
Might be easier to list the races I'm not working on haha. Right now my primary consults are VA (pres), the CO/NV Senate races, and ~15 House candidates mostly in the western states. But the level of work I'm doing for them varies wildly, some of those pay for us to be involved day-to-day, others just bought or rented something and need occasional assistance.
Before the GOP convention I'd have said the GOP had about a 45%-50% chance to hold onto 51 seats but now I think it's down to 35% or so. They know they're behind in WI/IL/IN and they aren't contesting CO, so to stop the bleeding at 51 would mean to win every outstanding contested race and I don't know if they could do that unless the outlook got much better for them. They went from looking like they had slight leads in PA/NH to being slightly behind. NC/AZ/OH look like pure tossups. They might have the smallest edge in FL/MO/IA. They'd have to win all 8 plus the rest of the Dem. reach targets for 51 seats.
My only interest in the CA race is seeing how much Trump being the only Republican on the ballot is going to savage the GOP downballot; I imagine it'll hurt them greatly.
Dunno if you'll see this, but do you only work with Democrats? Do consulting firms typically only work for one side of aisle?