Quote (WidowMaKer_MK @ Jan 30 2016 07:19pm)
...what Sanders loses in black votes he will make up in stolen female votes from Hillary . In the end the winner of the Democratic nomination will be decided by women voters .
Here's some of the demographics, if it comes down to women voters in Iowa then bernie loses. He is more popular among millenials, but not even half of them on avg can be counted to show up. That's the wildcard, youth participation.
Quote
Sixty-four percent of Americans who were eligible to vote cast a ballot, but the infographic shows that voter turnout differed dramatically by gender, income level, age, marital status and geographic location. Specifically,
--65.7 percent of women voted in 2008 vs. 61.5 percent of men.
--Young people, who have increasingly been the target of social media campaigning, are less likely to vote than those over 50. Only 48.5 percent of voters between 18 and 24 cast ballots in 2008, compared to 71.5 percent of 55 to 64-year-olds and 72.4 percent of 65 to 74-year-olds.
--You're more likely to vote if you're married (or have been married previously) than if you're single.
--White and black voters were significantly more likely to cast a ballot in 2008 than Hispanic and Asian voters.
--More education means more voting. Only 50.5 percent of eligible Americans who didn't graduate from high school voted in 2008, while 85.5 percent of people with advanced degrees (Masters, PhDs etc.) turned out.
Then a more recent one that shows a preference towards hillary among democratic women voters (with young/millenials favoring Bernie)
Poll: Female Iowa Dems Aligning With Hillary Clinton
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-martin-omalley-democrats/2015/12/15/id/705887/The Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday finds the former secretary of state leading the Vermont lawmaker 51-40 percent among likely Democratic caucus participants in Iowa.
Among Democrat-voting women, however, the breakdown is :
Clinton: 59 percent
Sanders: 32 percent
O'Malley: 7 percent
The breakdown for men is the opposite
Sanders: 52 percent
Clinton: 39 percent
O'Malley: 5 percent
Secretary Hillary Clinton's strength is largely based on her appeal to Democratic women among whom she leads by 2-1, a daunting base for those trying to upset her candidacy," Peter Brown, the poll's assistant director says in a statement.
Democratic voters prefer Sanders to Clinton on handling the economy, 45-44 percent, and climate change, 42-36, but Clinton beats her rival on other top issues, with this breakdown:
59-32 percent on health care
77-16 percent on foreign policy
68-20 percent on terrorism
Iowa sets the tone, the other posters are right. I expect Hillary to win Iowa.
This post was edited by Master_Zappy on Jan 30 2016 06:33pm