I've been advised by a good friend to make this topic!

This thread should be about the ongoing blockade by the Houthis in the Red Sea and the response from Operation Prosperity Guardian. The economic devastation that is being caused as well as the military assets involved should be the main topic of conversation!

So let's get the ball rolling:
(France is apparently bailing already)

https://archive.is/dbEC7



As many as 12 out of every 14 container ships, along with a large share of oil and gas tankers, bound for the key route between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea — which shortens the trip between Asian and European waters, and between Asia and swaths of the Atlantic, by thousands of miles — are instead heading south, according to Everstream Analytics, which analyzes supply chains.

The detour could add as much as a month to time underway, delaying the delivery of goods and the docking of ships that are supposed to continue onward, including to the east coast of the United States and from there back to Asia carrying new loads.
The world’s top 10 container shipping lines are refusing to make the journey through the Red Sea.

Container shipping capacity through the Suez Canal dropped sharply this week, from an already small 40 percent of its full capacity on Monday to 12.7 percent on Wednesday, according to Woitzik.

A month might not sound like a long time for a slow-moving ship, but with the cost to run such a vessel averaging $40,000 to $50,000 per day, “that’s a huge increase in cost and time,” said Corey Ranslem, chief executive of Dryad Global, a maritime intelligence firm.
It will take weeks, or maybe months, to tell how disastrous the situation is, Woitzik said. Many ships have turned off the signals allowing them to be tracked from afar, in an attempt to throw off would-be Houthi attackers, further obfuscating the extent of the situation, he said.
“The longer this issue goes on, the economic impact will continue to increase,” Ranslem said. One immediate effect, he said, is that insurance rates for ships sailing the region have “gone up pretty substantially.” Rates for Israeli-linked ships have gone up as much as 250 percent, according to Woitzik, with some insurers refusing altogether to cover them

https://archive.is/meNnS

The Houthi attacks are working. The latest figures from maritime analysis provider MarineTraffic suggest that traffic through the Bab el Mandeb between 15 and 19 Dec is down 14 per cent from 8-12 Dec.

So far, nineteen countries have signed up to Prosperity Guardian including the US, UK, France, Spain and Italy (these five have committed ships) plus Bahrain, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway and the Seychelles. Nine others do not want to be named for now: a clear indication of the region’s sensitivities. There are some notable absentees: India (although they might send ships), Egypt and Saudi Arabia, for example.

The classic convoy model of WWII can be discounted. There isn’t space and there aren’t enough ships.

This mix of threats in a confined space isn’t unprecedented although the amount of ships that need protecting and the speed of attacking missiles may be.

Not enough warships, the sheer amount of traffic to protect and the complexity of the merchant-military interface are three reasons why I don’t think Prosperity Guardian will work on its own. It is entirely defensive in nature and thus ignores the other tried and tested way of ensuring the safety of ships at sea – destroying the enemy’s ability to threaten them.

Between now and counter-strikes happening – if they do – Operation Prosperity Guardian is no better than a sticking plaster. Its entirely defensive nature does not appear to be winning over some shipping lines or navies.

Will these shipping companies help pay for their security in the region? If not, they can go around or take land routes. It's pennies on the dollar per nautical mile to ship goods, still probably cheaper to route around cape then risk these military assets. Surely someone will say 'its good for business' to ensure international trade route here, sure it is. Use the safe routes or pay for play in hostile waters.

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Dec 22 2023 07:50am

I can see the future whining when the coalition forces will eventually take action.
“But the innocent” “but the children” “but women”
These people are dark age primitive brutes and they deserved whats coming to them

This post was edited by Many_Names on Dec 22 2023 07:58am

I seen this interview on Bloomberg with a shipping CEO and he said going around Africa from Asia instead costs something like ~10 million more vs using Suez for the huge cargo ships. From his demeanor , it's not something that is sky is falling in nature but it's doable and will just add more costs and time for the time being.

As long as this lasts no more than a few weeks, maybe a few months I think it's fine. If this is a long term thing (many months, years) it could become a real problem. Realistically though it won't last very long, too much money at stake for governments not to intervene, that's why you have this task force being rolled out so fast.

Interesting, news Pundits were saying 10-15pcnt trade goes through that canal Red Sea route. And the ships journeys take roughly 20percent longer in time. The cost per ship fueling and what not is negligible. The cadence of ships taking longer journeys without adding more ships to the fleet would be a bigger issue IMO. I think it's over hyped

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Dec 22 2023 10:17am

The raw number doesn't mean much. What's the full cost of the voyage I wonder?

Google says the cost of a 40 foot container from China to the USA is 2k-4k, and a cargo ship ports 6000-9000 containers (these are just the first numbers on google, don't come at me). Other sources are saying 9-10k as of April last year.

So ballpark the total cost to the consumer is 12-36 million.

Seems from that an extra 10 million would be increase shipping costs from anywhere between 25% to 100%.

Also looks like freight shipping costs globally are down 60% since last year.


So I guess that makes sense this wouldn't actually be a big deal.

I'm surprsied freight shipping costs have changed that much in such a short amount of time.



Oh wow. Looks like freight rates from Asia to the USA are MASSIVELY down over the past 2 years. Thanks Biden.



This post was edited by Thor123422 on Dec 22 2023 10:24am

This is a storm in a teacup. Shipping companies will profit. Egypt will lose out. And potentially consumers in Europe will pay more, but that would take time to be noticeable.

As soon as they want to the coalition of navies will obliterate Houthis at the source.

This is not a coalition of the willing it would seem: