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Buster Olney's top 10 shortstops: Are Lindor and Correa MLB's Magic and Bird?
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Jan 8, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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For the rest of their lives, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor are destined to be compared with each other. They are superlative ballplayers born within a year of each other (Lindor is 24, Correa 23), they are both from Puerto Rico, and of course, they are both shortstops.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders: Thursday, Jan. 11
» Best teams: Friday, Jan. 12
» Best units: Saturday, Jan. 13

But they are very different in style and substance. Lindor is under 6 feet, a switch-hitter who runs well and is regarded by evaluators as the better defender. Correa is bigger, with an A-Rod frame, and stronger; he will probably hit a lot more homers in his career, and because of that, some executives believe his performance ceiling could be higher.

They are friends, but just as Magic Johnson and Larry Bird measured their own progress according to the standard set by the other during their careers, Correa and Lindor will always naturally push each other -- with respect.

In the months leading up to the World Baseball Classic, Puerto Rico GM Alex Cora and manager Edwin Rodriguez faced a potentially difficult situation because of the middle infield riches on their roster, with three incredibly talented shortstops -- Correa, Lindor and Javier Baez. That was resolved, Cora later explained, through magnanimity: Correa asked A.J. Hinch and Cora at the outset of spring training if he could prepare to play third base for Puerto Rico. Baez played second, Lindor shortstop, and Puerto Rico reached the championship game.

Two years ago, Lindor served as an anchor to a league champion that played to the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series before falling. Two months ago, Correa was the anchor to a team that won Game 7 of the World Series -- and then he topped it off with a marriage proposal on the field.

Like Bird and Magic, they will probably continue to take turns in the achievement spotlight in the years ahead, and Correa and Lindor top our Top 10 list of shortstops, a ranking based on the input of MLB evaluators, with the help of researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.

1. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

The Indians thought his swing got a little long last season and that he sometimes got away from what he does best -- that is, consistently hitting the ball hard -- and he batted .252 before the All-Star break. But he finished well and closed the year with 81 extra-base hits, including 33 homers, and was fifth in the AL MVP voting. He has played all but seven games in the past two regular seasons.

From Langs: The only other shortstop to hit at least 30 homers in a season before turning 24 years old is Alex Rodriguez, who did that twice.

2. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

If Correa hadn’t torn up his thumb in midseason, he might have vied with teammate Jose Altuve for the AL MVP and taken the No. 1 ranking on this list. Correa missed about a third of the Astros’ schedule after having surgery and still managed to finish 17th among all position players in fWAR at 5.2. Correa’s power breakout, long predicted for the 6-foot-4, 215-pound shortstop, is happening: His slugging percentage jumped to .550, and he tied for eighth in the majors in wRC+. He is already known among veteran teammates for being a very serious student of the game, digging in and diagnosing and dissecting.

From Langs: Correa has generated 16.3 WAR in his first three career seasons, second most by any shortstop, behind Arky Vaughan (17.4).

Said one evaluator: “For me, you have Lindor and Correa … and then there’s a gap from the rest of the pack.”

3. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 shortstops from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

In his first two full seasons in the big leagues, Seager has been more than an adequate defender while providing big-time production at the plate. As with a lot of young players, Seager’s next challenge will be in improving his plate discipline: Among talent evaluators trailing the Dodgers in the postseason last fall, there was a sense that Seager could be pitched to in big spots because of his aggressiveness. But while Seager tends to attack at the plate, he still is among the best infielders at reaching base: He has a .374 OBP in his short time in the majors.

4. Andrelton Simmons, Los Angeles Angels

You start with the defense, of course. No one had a greater defensive impact than the Angels’ shortstop, who led all position players with 32 defensive runs saved -- more than double that of any other shortstop last year. Simmons has five full seasons in the big leagues, and in that time, he has lorded over all other shortstops in his defensive pre-eminence:

Defensive Runs Saved, 2013-2017

Simmons 144

Brandon Crawford 58

Addison Russell 44

Zack Cozart 40

Nick Ahmed 37

Francisco Lindor 32

But he also has developed into a solid if unspectacular offensive player, to the degree that Simmons led all shortstops in WAR last year with 7.1 after batting .278 with 38 doubles and 14 homers. Braves staffers who loved Simmons always acknowledged that because of his aggressiveness he would probably never be a high-level hitter, but last season Simmons had the best rate of hard-hit balls (29.2 percent) in his career.

5. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

Two years ago, Andrus seemed to be in a midcareer malaise, with three consecutive summers of sub-.700 OPS production, and his contract was probably regarded as unmovable. But Andrus, still under 30 years old but on the cusp of his 10th year in the big leagues, rededicated himself to the sport, made changes and has become a much better player.

“For a while, I wondered how much he cared about it,” said one rival executive. “He looks energized to me.”

Andrus had 191 hits last season, a career high, with 68 extra-base hits; for the first time, he scored 100 runs. He ranked among the top half of shortstops in defensive runs saved.

A big financial carrot is now right in front of him: Andrus can opt out of his contract after the 2018 season, something that would’ve been unthinkable a few years ago.

From Langs: He hit 20 homers in 2017 after never hitting more than eight in any prior season.

6. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants

One evaluator mentioned the off-field issues that hovered over Crawford last year, when he and the Giants struggled. “For me, he gets a mulligan,” said the scout. “Because he’s been a good player for a long time.” Crawford won the NL Gold Glove Award for the third straight season.

7. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

His defensive metrics are among the worst in MLB, but new Boston manager Alex Cora was responsible for a lot of the shifting that the Astros did last year, and presumably he could foster alignments that help Bogaerts. If not, this could be a pivotal year for Bogaerts and decisions about where he should play in future seasons. His second-half decline at the plate seemed directly related to injuries, so he’ll probably hit for more power this year.

8. Didi Gregorius, New York Yankees
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He seemed to graduate to another level last year, generating a lot of big hits and hitting .287 with 87 RBIs in 136 games in the regular season before mustering five extra-base hits in 13 postseason games.

9. Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners

He had an adjusted OPS+ of 110 last season, and despite injuries he batted .300 and scored 80 runs in 125 games, giving the Mariners the type of production they had hoped for when Seattle traded the talented Taijuan Walker to Arizona for him.

10. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

When he’s healthy and playing well, Turner has demonstrated that he can be a high-impact player, with transformative speed -- he’s got 81 stolen bases in 97 attempts in just 198 games. However, Turner still hasn’t had a season in which he’s played 100 games.

In defensive runs saved, he ranked in the bottom half of MLB shortstops who had at least 800 innings at the position last year.
Best of the rest

• Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs: He had a really rough season on and off the field in 2017, and the Cubs hope for a rebound from Russell, who turns 24 this month. There was speculation among rival executives about whether the Cubs would be open to moving him, but his defense is hard to replace -- even in a down year, he rated very well in his glove work.

• Orlando Arcia, Milwaukee Brewers: His first season as a big league regular was impressive, with hints of great stuff to come. Arcia showed some pop, generated a lot of web gems and was eighth among shortstops in defensive runs saved.

• Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals: He had a strong rookie season, taking the position away from Aledmys Diaz and hitting 25 homers in 108 games.
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Buster Olney's top 10 third basemen: Stars sizzle at the hot corner
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Jan 7, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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This will be a memorable year in the life of Manny Machado. Sometime in 2018, the Baltimore Orioles will probably trade him to a World Series contender and give him the same opportunity that Justin Verlander had after landing with the Houston Astros. Then Machado will become a free agent in November and sometime before the new year, he will begin to field offers for tens of millions of dollars -- or maybe even hundreds of millions. He will be rewarded for all of the work that he put in as a kid and in his years with the Orioles, all of that time he spent in rehabilitation from two serious knee injuries.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders: Thursday, Jan. 11
» Best teams: Friday, Jan. 12
» Best units: Saturday, Jan. 13

But the return on his investment in himself may not max out unless Machado digs in and performs more consistently. In order to get the sort of record-setting contract he could pursue, Machado needs to have a strong launch year into the open market, as an on-field response to some of the questions that executives have about him -- heard as we prepared our top-10 list of third basemen.

“To be honest, he looks bored sometimes,” said one evaluator.

Said another: “I think he needs a different challenge.”

Alex Rodriguez was Machado’s idol when he was growing up as a kid in Miami, and the comparisons between the two as players are natural because they were raised in the same area, as wildly talented, thriving power-hitting infielders. But there seems to be one enormous and important difference between Alex Rodriguez and Machado.

Throughout A-Rod’s career, nobody ever questioned his focus. Ever. Potential investors viewed Rodriguez as someone of superlative skill and total commitment, someone who would do whatever he needed to do daily to be great. That helped him land two record-setting contracts -- his $252 million deal with the Rangers, which he opted out of to negotiate a $275 million monster with the Yankees.

Last year was a challenge for Machado, for sure. Early in the year, he was at the center of the Orioles’ beanball stuff with the Red Sox after colliding with Dustin Pedroia on a slide. The Orioles had the worst rotation in the majors and for the Baltimore position players, there must’ve been a Groundhog Day feel to the season: By the fourth or fifth inning on most days, Machado and the other position players would be staring at an early deficit of three or four runs. By September, the Orioles sometimes looked like the walking dead, Machado among them.

This was reflected in the feedback of evaluators solicited for their rankings of the top 10 third basemen. For some, Machado was listed fourth or fifth or even sixth, with caveats. At his best, they believe, he is the most talented defender at the position, and capable of big offensive numbers -- but that he sometimes will drift through days or weeks, particularly in the way he works through his plate appearances. His production in 2017 was remarkably erratic.

Machado’s OPS by month

April .767

May .629

June .759

July .870

August 1.039

September .537

He finished with a .259 average and a .310 on-base percentage, and as ESPN Researcher Paul Hembekides notes, his performance outside of hitter-friendly Camden Yards was flat-out awful last season -- a .268 on-base percentage in 336 plate appearances, with an Adjusted OPS+ of 80, well below major league average.

He’s going to get a great contract and make more money than almost all of his peers, because of how special a defender he is, whether he’s at shortstop (where the Orioles are expected to play him this year) or at third base. But Machado could help himself by being more consistent, in a sport that probably values that trait -- and compensates for it -- more than any other.

Our top-10 list of third basemen, which is based on the input of evaluators and the insight and data generated by ESPN’s Paul Hembekides, Sarah Langs and Mark Simon. And of all the tasks in this series, trying to rank the third basemen is the most impossible.

1. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

When position players are compared, the Rockies’ players are always assigned demerits because, almost without exception, their numbers at home are markedly better than on the road. For hitters, there is a clear statistical advantage to playing half of their games in Coors Field. But Rockies’ officials made a fair point about this dynamic: the performance of pitchers who work in ballparks clearly favorable to them -- like the pitchers of the Dodgers, Giants or Padres -- isn’t dissected in the same way.
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 third baseman from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

So sure, Nolan Arenado does do a lot of damage in his home games, but he’s a great player no matter where he is. He generated 87 extra-base hits and drove in at least 130 runs for the third consecutive season, and had a career-high .959 OPS. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his five seasons in the big leagues and finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting in each of the past three seasons, and he plays ferociously -- he’s like a middle linebacker at third base, attacking and intercepting ground balls.

From Sarah Langs: He has 104 Defensive Runs Saved at third base since his 2013 debut. The next-most at third base is Manny Machado, with 74.

Another: In 2017, he joined Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Wade Boggs as the only third basemen to win at least three straight Silver Slugger Awards. (Schmidt won five straight, Boggs four straight.)

2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

He finished last season as the second baseman for the Indians, but the bulk of his exceptional work was accomplished at third base, where he made 86 of his 151 starts. One longtime coach said about Ramirez that he competes with more intensity than any player in the American League -- game to game, inning to inning, pitch to pitch. Last year, Ramirez had 91 extra-base hits and scored 107 runs, and stole 17 bases -- and for all that and more, Ramirez finished third in the AL MVP voting. Ramirez had the 10th-lowest swing-and-miss ratio in the majors.

From Langs: Ramirez, a switch-hitter, ranked in the top 20 in batting average against right-handed pitchers (.312) and left-handers (.329).

3. Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals

He makes a point of refusing to talk about his own accomplishments, his own play, and maybe that’s why Rendon is perpetually underrated. He led all third basemen in fWAR last season -- heck, he led all National Leaguers in that category -- and yet he wasn’t on the All-Star team, and he finished sixth in the MVP balloting. Rendon had more walks (84) than strikeouts (82), and 41 doubles and 25 homers and a .403 on-base percentage; he had the eighth-lowest rate of swings and misses in the majors.

4. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Bryant won the MVP in 2016 and improved his batting average in 2017 to .295, and his OPS to .946. He may have been more affected by the depth problems in the Cubs’ lineup in 2017 than any other hitter, given how opposing pitchers chose to work around him more often -- his walk total climbed to 95, and he reduced his strikeout rate again, to 128; in 2015, he had 199. It was curious that Bryant’s peers did not vote him to the All-Star team last season, in a year in which Bryant would rank second behind Rendon in WAR.

5. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

After watching Machado through one series last summer, one AL evaluator walked away convinced that he is the most gifted infield defender he has ever seen, with a unique ability to generate powerful throws from any angle. Sometime in 2018, Machado will likely collect career hit No. 1,000 and career homer No. 150, in a summer when he’ll turn 26.

6. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

He’s great when he plays, and the last couple of seasons he has been hurt a lot. He limped through the last month of 2016, and after he hurt his calf last spring, he missed 49 games -- and as usual, Donaldson did a ton of damage when he was in the lineup. Donaldson hit 33 homers and mustered a .559 slugging percentage, and as general manager Ross Atkins said when deflecting trade rumors this winter, it’s hard to imagine the Jays competing in 2018 without Donaldson being in the middle of it. Donaldson turned 32 in December, and will be a free agent in the fall.

From Langs: Since his debut in 2013, Donaldson ranks second in WAR among all position players, trailing only Mike Trout (43.8 to 36.2).

7. Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

As we are seeing among free agents this winter, hitting home runs doesn’t necessarily get you paid well. Consistently making hard contact, on the other hand -- and this is something that Turner does very well. He ranked second to Joey Votto in walk/strikeout rate last season. He also produced the biggest drop in strikeout rate from 2016 to 2017 among qualifiers in both seasons, striking out 6.9 percent less frequently.

8. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
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The deep confidence with which he plays manifested in the postseason, when Bregman got the game-winning hit to end of the craziest World Series games ever -- a single off Kenley Jansen in Game 5. Playing his first full season in the big leagues, Bregman made adjustments and batted .315 after the All-Star break, with 48 runs in 71 games and a .903 OPS. Bregman was a shortstop as an amateur, and some evaluators think he is still learning about playing third base.

9. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

Injuries kept him off the field for a lot of last season, but he still managed to hit 17 homers and drive in 71 runs in only 94 games. The future Hall of Famer achieved his 3,000th career hit, and he needs 38 homers for 500.

Sarah sent along this note: Beltre has 49.4 WAR since his age-31 season in 2010, and that is the 12th-highest total for any player since his age-31 season. The names ahead of him: Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Cap Anson, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Stan Musial, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams and Roberto Clemente. In other words, a lot of inner-circle Hall of Famers.

10. Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

There was some debate among rival evaluators if the Giants -- with an aging group of position players -- would’ve been better served to target somebody other than the 32-year-old Longoria. But he continues to be a very good player, particularly on defense -- Longoria won his third Gold Glove in 2017, and his first in seven years. He hit 20 homers for the Rays last season, after mustering 36 in 2016.
Best of the rest

• Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners: He’s coming off something of a down year, in which his OBP fell 36 points to .323, but he has become the Brian McCann of third basemen -- he has had at least 20 homers in six straight seasons. Needs five hits for 1,000 in his career.

• Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks: His defensive metrics are ugly, but he does a ton of damage at the plate -- with 133 hits and 87 walks, he posted a .357 on-base percentage last year, with 30 homers.

• Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers: This was the trade that haunted the Red Sox last year, as Shaw mashed 31 homers and accumulated an Adjusted OPS+ of 121.

• Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics: If you haven’t seen the highlights of his defense, do yourself a favor and dig up some video of him making plays last season. In only 84 games last year, he generated 2.7 WAR, and the only reason he’s not in the top 10 here is because of the sample size. He looks like he’ll be a star defender for years to come.

• Jedd Gyorko, St. Louis Cardinals: There has been some speculation this winter that the Cardinals might pursue free-agent Mike Moustakas, but they may be happy with the guy they’ve got. Gyorko is coming off a strong season in which he worked on getting lower in his set-up and helped his defensive metrics tremendously.

• Mike Moustakas, free agent: He hit a career-high 38 homers last year, and evaluators view him as a good defender.

• A final note, on Miguel Sano of the Minnesota Twins: He may not get many games at third base in 2018, which is why he’ll be listed among the best DHs.

Buster Olney's top 10 left fielders: Superstar shake-up has big names left out to dry
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Jan 9, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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After a month of bad reviews over the trade of MVP Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins might be inclined to hang on to their best remaining player, Christian Yelich, who is among MLB’s top 10 left fielders -- the position where he is expected to play in 2018.

Yelich has a team-friendly contract and will make only $7 million this season, so there’s no immediate pressure on Miami to deal him. In a year in which the Marlins will be a recurring punchline, Derek Jeter & Co. could cling to Yelich as a piece of credibility in the way that the San Diego Padres kept Tony Gwynn and Andy Benes through their 1993 fire sale of Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff and others.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders: Thursday, Jan. 11
» Best teams: Friday, Jan. 12
» Best units: Saturday, Jan. 13

But there’s a strong argument to be made that the Marlins’ best strategy is to deal Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and any other veteran of value, because any lasting damage that has been done to the franchise by Jeter’s Project Wolverine teardown could be irreversible -- unless the Marlins execute a near-perfect, cost-efficient rebuild. And even then, it may not matter to fans in south Florida.

The truncated history of the Montreal Expos might provide the best comparison to where the Marlins stand now. As the Montreal ownership made decisions about the team’s finances, the Expos’ fan base endured repeated departures of Hall of Fame-caliber players: Gary Carter. Andre Dawson. Tim Raines. Vladimir Guerrero. Pedro Martinez.

Eventually, the fans in Montreal stopped going to games. After Martinez was traded in the fall of 1997, the Expos’ attendance fell by about 40 percent, to less than 1 million, and in 2001, Montreal drew just 643,000. The 2004 Expos drew 750,000, with a lot of that accounted for by fans saying goodbye to the team.

Depending on how the Marlins handle their accounting this year, they may become the first MLB team since the ’04 Expos to fail to reach 1 million in attendance. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins’ through-the-turnstile count last year was closer to 800,000, or about half of their announced attendance of 1.59 million. With the trades of Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, the team will likely be terrible in 2018 and for at least three or four years after that, as the front office goes through its rebuilding/tanking. Yelich’s presence in a Marlins uniform isn’t going to fool fans about the product.

What’s most important now for the Marlins’ front office is to collect and develop the right group of prospects, and to time its collective ascension the way that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros did theirs. It’s a nearly impossible challenge, of course, because the Marlins aren’t embedded in the hearts of their fan base the way the Cubs were, nor do they have the financial potential of the Astros to augment their young players. The truth is that Project Wolverine is the baseball equivalent of a Hail Mary, because even if they get it right, fans in south Florida might not care anymore -- after the breakups of the ’97 and ’03 championship teams, the trade of 24-year-old superstar Miguel Cabrera, the swap of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle even after the opening of the taxpayer-funded ballpark, and now the salary dump of Stanton.

The new ownership group had one chance to make a first impression, one chance to distinguish itself from the distrusted regimes of the past. That has been squandered, and mortal damage may have been done to the market. Considering where the Marlins are today, they might as well push ahead and "rip the whole Band-Aid off,” as a rival executive said. “They might as well take all the pain now.”

So yes, the time is right to trade Yelich. His inclusion in the top-10 list below is based on the input of evaluators, with the counsel of ESPN researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.

1. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals

Under Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins sometimes acted rashly, doing stuff you’d never see from other organizations, such as when longtime evaluator Dan Jennings was named manager despite having zero experience in that role. But every so often, the impetuosity paid off -- and maybe it did with Marcell Ozuna. The young slugger showed up to spring training heavy and out of shape, and in midseason the Marlins demoted him to the minors, against the objections of his agent, Scott Boras.

You can debate how much the rebuke actually affected his play, but there’s no doubt that Ozuna improved a lot the past two years, which is why the Cardinals aggressively targeted him over the winter and will install him in the middle of their lineup. Ozuna was an average center fielder at best, but he is a good left fielder; only Brett Gardner had more defensive runs saved than Ozuna last year.

2. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ intention is to shift Yelich back to left field if they keep him, and if he’s traded he’s likely to be a corner outfielder moving forward. His power numbers have jumped the past two seasons -- he hit a total of 39 homers in 2016 and 2017 -- and any team that acquires him can do so with the expectation that Yelich’s production will continue to climb outside of the Marlins’ cavernous home park. Incredibly, 41 of his 59 career homers have been hit on the road, where his OPS has been 80 points higher than in his home games. He has been remarkably consistent in his ability to get on base: In his five seasons, Yelich’s OBP has ranged between .362 and .376 annually.

3. Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels

The Angels traded for Upton to help with the last month of their pennant push last season, but they also bought a one-month audition -- a test-drive with one of baseball’s best power hitters. And they liked what they saw, because after the season they negotiated a one-year extension for Upton, who could’ve opted out of his contract. "Justin embodied our offensive philosophy, which is to get on base and hit the ball hard," Angels GM Billy Eppler said on the night that the signing was announced. "He's shown a knack for doing that. He's got the power and the on-base skills that we covet, as well as the character and the professional approach necessary to be a key member of our core moving forward."
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 left fielders from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

Upton hit 35 homers last year and has had at least 26 homers in each of the past six seasons. He tied for 23rd in wRC+ among all hitters who qualified for the batting title.

4. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox

If not for Aaron Judge, Benintendi would’ve won the AL Rookie of the Year Award after a very solid first showing -- and there’s probably a lot more power to come. A longtime scout noted Benintendi’s unusual swing and its natural uppercut, giving him the ability to get the ball in the air, and as he learns more about pitchers and how he’s being attacked, that will likely manifest more and more. Benintendi hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases and scored 84 runs in his first season, and he ran the bases well and played good defensive.

5. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets

Cespedes' physical condition at the outset of spring training might be the biggest story in Mets camp again because of how last year played out. He reported to camp with the body of a middle linebacker after an offseason of heavy weight training, and after daily eruptions in batting practice, the Mets were hopeful that he would have a monster season. But Cespedes broke down repeatedly last summer and played just half of the Mets’ games, creating an enormous hole in the lineup. The Mets aren’t expecting anything out of David Wright, they need a second baseman and a first baseman, and they don’t know what they’ll get out of Matt Harvey -- and they can probably overcome all of that uncertainty and still contend. But given the structure of the Mets’ lineup and the $87 million they have invested in Cespedes moving ahead, it’s hard to imagine they can win in 2018 unless the 32-year-old Cespedes plays in 130-plus games. If he played 150 games, he would probably be MLB’s best left fielder.

6. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

As the Yankees have worked to manage their payroll and roster needs in recent winters, they have been open to the idea of trading Gardner -- and have been surprised by how unaggressive other teams have been. Gardner has been a clubhouse leader, a consistent source of accountability, and the Yankees have loved him for that, but he also has been a good player, with a solid on-base percentage (.350 last season), tough and extended at-bats, good defense, good baserunning, versatility and his emotional flexibility -- he'll do whatever they need him to. Now the Yankees may well keep him through the remainder of his contract, which pays him $11.5 million in 2018, with a club option for $12.5 million in 2019.

7. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins

A rival evaluator following the Twins believes that, collectively, their young hitters make an effort to ignore breaking pitches early in the count. They chased out of the strike zone less and gave themselves a chance to see better pitches later in the count. This seemed to really help Rosario, who improved significantly as the 2017 season progressed, hitting .311 with a .351 OBP and a .568 SLG after June 13. He finished the year with an adjusted OPS+ of 120. It was a crossroad season for him: Rosario’s patience at the plate improved, he gave himself a better chance to get better pitches to hit, and his rate of contact climbed.

8. Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
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He has hit 85 homers over the past two seasons, but he will be an interesting test case in the next year of the industry’s investment in defense. The Brewers traded Davis to Oakland a few years ago partly because of their concern about his outfield play, and metrics indicated that last season was his worst year defensively -- only six outfielders scored lower in defensive runs saved than Davis, who posted a minus-13 mark. Oakland manager Bob Melvin played him in fewer games in the outfield. In 2016, Chris Carter led the National League in home runs -- and then was nontendered. Davis made $5 million last season and will get a big raise this winter because the arbitration process rewards players for success with the old-school statistics like homers and RBI. If Oakland drifts out of contention in 2018 -- which is likely, given the strength at the top of the AL West -- and the Athletics dangle Davis in the trade market, the level of interest will be the first strong indication of how Davis' skill set is actually valued by rival evaluators.

9. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

With the start of spring training a little more than a month away, the Pirates haven’t wholly embraced a course of action for 2018; after weeks of trade discussion, they still have Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison on their roster. They still have the option of trying to win in 2018.

A really important variable in their plans is the expected performance of Marte, and the simple fact of the matter is they have no way of knowing what type of player he will be in the year ahead. Marte was busted for PEDs early last season and didn't produce after he returned from suspension: In those 64 games, he had a .723 OPS with 13 extra-base hits, although he batted .330 in his last 23 games. Because of his lack of time on the field during the regular season, the Pirates gave him the OK to play winter ball, and he initially struggled before finishing with a .255 average and .310 on-base percentage.

The Pirates don’t know if Marte’s strong play in the past was rooted in PED use, or if he can be a high-end offensive player. At the very least, he’ll help Pittsburgh’s defense (and pitching, by extension) with his glove work. He had eight defensive runs saved in just 665⅓ innings last season.

10. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

His impact in the big leagues was immediate -- 18 homers in 50 games -- but the lasting impression that Hoskins made on some evaluators was his willingness to take a walk as opposing pitchers tried to cope with his power. He drew 37 walks and averaged 4.65 pitches per plate appearance, and had a .396 on-base percentage. Hoskins will have to face more counterattacks in his second season in the big leagues, but the Phillies saw enough of him in the lineup and in left field to buy into three years of Carlos Santana at first base, giving Philadelphia a powerful lineup core.
Best of the rest

• Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians: He hit .299 in 90 games, but then suffered an ankle injury.

• Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds: Duvall continues to do a lot of damage -- he’s got back-to-back seasons with at least 70 extra-base hits.

• Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: In his first full season in the big leagues, he had an adjusted OPS+ of 120, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

• Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays: He made the AL All-Star team for the first time.

• Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: He was off to a phenomenal start in 2017 with a .393 OBP when he went down with a knee injury. The Nationals plan to move him to left field in 2018.

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=18003

Ty

Rip

The cupboard was close to bare when GM Mike Hazen took over, but a few prospects he inherited took steps forward last year, and the team added a lot of talent with the new regime's first draft class and a big splash on the international market.

1. Jon Duplantier, RHP (ranked No. 64)
2. Pavin Smith, 1B (ranked No. 92)
3. Jasrado Chisholm, SS
4. Marcus Wilson, OF
5. Taylor Clarke, RHP
6. Drew Ellis, 3B
7. Anthony Banda, LHP
8. Daulton Varsho, C
9. Cody Reed, LHP
10. Kristian Robinson, OF

Non-top 100 prospects

The Bahamian-born Jasrado Chisholm played in just 29 games for low-A Kane County before tearing the meniscus in his knee, requiring surgery that ended his season. He did return for Arizona's Dominican instructional league and was running and fielding at 100 percent. His tools remain unchanged, with strong hands and plus bat speed, projecting to hit -- and hit with power -- and will probably move to second base in the long term. Marcus Wilson was the team's second-round pick in 2014 out of the same high school that produced Mets first baseman Dom Smith, and followed his modest breakout in 2016 with an excellent full-season debut for Kane County, hitting .295/.383/.446 at age 20. He has drawn walks at a solid clip, but this year improved his overall approach and started to make better contact, growing into some of the power projected for him in high school. He can play center and is a plus defender in left.

Taylor Clarke, the D-backs' third-round pick in 2015, reached Triple-A last summer and continued to miss bats, working at 92-94 now from a high three-quarter slot and using his changeup more effectively. He's a strong fly-ball pitcher, though, which might not be a great fit in Phoenix or even in Reno. Drew Ellis -- no relation to Michael -- was their second-round pick in 2017, a third baseman for the University of Louisville who has pull power and can turn on a fastball, swinging early in the count with rough footwork at the hot corner. He may end up at first base. Anthony Banda was their No. 1 prospect last winter, when they didn't place anyone on the top 100, and saw his velocity improve but his performance drop, especially when he had to pitch from the stretch, a problem that continued in his brief major league time. He still has the mix and control to be a starter, but if you can't keep the ball in the yard with men on base, that's going to be a problem in any role.

Daulton Varsho earned very mixed reviews last spring from area scouts, but the Diamondbacks loved what they saw from the son of former big-league outfielder Gary and took Daulton with the 68th overall pick. He's a plus runner with quick actions, a solid receiver behind the plate with a 45 arm but a fast release, and has a good eye at the plate with some power. He may not stay a catcher long-term, but the power/speed combination is intriguing. Cody Reed returned healthy after he missed the last half of 2016 with shoulder soreness, dominating low-A and missing bats in high-A but becoming homer-prone in the Cal League, especially at home, even though Visalia's ballpark isn't one of that league's extreme hitting environments. He works with average-ish stuff and has some deception, but his command needs to be finer for him to profile as a big-league starter, and he will have to continue to improve his changeup to get right-handed batters out.

Kristian Robinson signed for $2.55 million in July, another Bahamian prospect, and is a physical monster with plus speed and plus raw power along with a simple swing that should let him make plenty of contact ... but he hasn't played in games yet to give anyone a sense of his patience or pitch recognition.

Socrates Brito (11) dislocated a finger in spring training and missed about seven weeks to start the Triple-A season, still flashing some of the power and speed but not putting it together enough at the plate to profile as more than an extra outfielder. Right-hander Matt Tabor (12) was their third-round pick, a prep arm out of Massachusetts who has size and velocity, up to 95 as a starter with a good changeup. His arm is late in his delivery and he lands on his heel, while he needs to develop a viable breaking ball.

Andy Yerzy (13) showed progress in his receiving last year as an 18-year-old in the Pioneer League, but it was his power output that gained him attention -- he hit 13 homers in 54 games, tying for sixth in the league, after hitting just one homer in his pro debut in 2016. Brazilian outfielder Gabriel Maciel (14) shows above-average speed and defense in center, with good bat-to-ball skills, projecting to hit for average but not much power, with a good leadoff hitter profile if he continues to show he can get on base (.389 last year, 14th in the Pioneer League at age 18). He's further along as a hitter than Eduardo Diaz (15), who can also play center with above-average speed, but has a big frame that should lead to more power as he fills out while also increasing the likelihood he moves to a corner.

Jose Almonte (16) punched out 26 percent of opposing batters in the high-A Cal League last year despite pitching with average stuff, so scouts are skeptical of him as a long-term starter. Lefty Jared Miller (17) looks like a solid setup man, if not more, as a three-pitch guy who can get hitters on both sides out. Right-hander Jimmy Sherfy is a fastball/curveball guy who lacks a pitch to make him more than a specialist. Shortstop Domingo Leyba played in just 23 games due to shoulder surgery and might miss the start of 2018, so we'll have to see how he looks when he's back on the field and throwing again.

2018 impact: Anthony Banda might get another crack at the rotation and Jimmy Sherfy should appear in the bullpen for much of the year. Socrates Brito would be a solid fourth outfielder if he's healthy.

Sleeper: It's still Jasrado Chisholm, who was my sleeper last year but didn't play enough to justify bumping him up the rankings just yet.

The fallen: Outfielder Anfernee Grier was their top pick, 39th overall, in 2016, out of Auburn University, but brought concerns about his ability to pick up breaking stuff; he hit just .251/.340/.331 in low-A at 21 and is looking like an extra outfielder or up-and-down guy.

Colorado Rockies
Riley Pint, who the Rockies made the fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft, shows off a right arm that can reach triple digits. AP Photo/David Zalubowski

A system full of teams playing in hitters' parks can skew impressions of players -- the hitters look better than they are, the pitchers look worse -- and the Rockies also had miserable luck last year with injuries to pitchers and position players alike.

1. Brendan Rodgers, SS (ranked No. 29)
2. Ryan McMahon, 1B (ranked No. 31)
3. Peter Lambert, RHP (ranked No. 63)
4. Riley Pint, RHP
5. Ryan Vilade, SS
6. Tyler Nevin, 1B/3B
7. Colton Welker, 3B
8. Ryan Castellani, RHP
9. Will Gaddis, RHP
10. Garrett Hampson, 2B

Non-top 100 prospects

Riley Pint was the fourth overall pick in 2016 and went to low-A Asheville in his first full year out, where he did Riley Pint things, like hitting 100 mph as a starter, walking too many guys (almost 14 percent), and not missing enough bats (18.2 percent). He's athletic, blessed with a golden arm, and still is a sort of lottery ticket, in search of a consistent breaking ball or even fringe-average command. He just turned 20 in November and has time to get there, but there's a substantial probability he either ends up a reliever or never gets to the majors at all.

Ryan Vilade was their first pick in 2017 after they gave up their first-round pick for Ian Desmond, and had a tremendous debut in 33 games in the advanced-rookie Pioneer League, hitting .308/.438/.496, even doing more on the road than he did in hitter-friendly Grand Junction. It was a small sample, but still impressive for an 18-year-old straight out of high school. He's a smart player with good feel on both sides of the ball, an average runner or a tick better, probably not a shortstop in the long term but with the projected average/OBP skills to profile as a regular anywhere.

Tyler Nevin had all of one at-bat in 2016 around a hamstring injury he reaggravated when he doubled, so getting into 82 games last year makes for real progress, although he was slowed by a wrist injury midseason. He did hit .336/.381/.523 after his DL stint with a high contact rate, and shows a real ability to use the opposite field. He has played first and third, and could go to a corner outfield spot as well; there should be above-average power in here as well to help him profile at any of those spots.

Colton Welker missed about half of last year with a back injury, continued to hit (boosted by a good home park), with mixed reviews on his defense and body type; if he stays healthy and keeps producing at the plate, that latter part won't matter much. Ryan Castellani can touch 94 and sits 90-91 with a hard mid-80s slider, with command above-average in some starts and below in others. He extends well over his front side when his delivery is "right," but can get underneath the ball at times, which is when he gets hit. His changeup is below average now, too close to his fastball in velocity without the action that might help him fool left-handed hitters. He has fourth-starter potential, with a specialist-reliever floor.

Will Gaddis was the team's third-round pick in 2017 out of Furman, and the right-hander shows plus control of a fastball-cutter-curveball mix. He has a changeup but it is still a below-average pitch, and developing that will be key to keeping him a starter, with league-average upside if he gets there. Garrett Hampson is a plus runner with good instincts, lacking power and probably needing to develop more hand strength, but has a good idea at the plate and should be an above-average defender at second who is always a candidate to move to center for his speed.

Catcher Tom Murphy (11) missed two months with a hairline fracture in his forearm and ended up in only 50 games last year, continuing an unfortunate history of injuries (including a shoulder problem that wrecked his 2014 season). He didn't hit well when healthy, although his strength in the affected arm was probably down. He'll turn 27 in April and already has a year of service time, mostly from DL stints, with just 103 major league at-bats ... and yet he's still something as a prospect because he's a catcher with power. Just don't forget about him.

Outfielder Sam Hilliard (12) struck out 154 times in high-A at age 23 last year, but he does have tools -- 6 raw power, 6 run, 6 arm, average defense in right -- and he's got size, so while the 26 percent strikeout rate is too high for his age and level, he does have the upside of an above-average big-leaguer if he cuts it down just enough to project as a .250-ish hitter for average.

The Rockies gave $2 million to Venezuelan outfielder Daniel Montano (13) in 2015, and he had a solid summer in the Dominican last year, probably leading to a U.S. debut in 2018. He has good feel to hit, with a line-drive swing that should produce doubles power, while his eventual position is up in the air between center and left field. Right-hander Yency Almonte (14) is a fastball/slider guy up to 96 without much life on the pitch, most likely a reliever in the long run. Breiling Eusebio (15) had a brief stint as a starter for low-A Asheville at age 20 last year; the southpaw is a two-pitch guy right now, fastball/curveball, effective against left-handed batters but needing a viable changeup to stay a starter.

Second baseman Forrest Wall (16) injured his left shoulder diving for a ball, requiring surgery that ended his season. He has speed and some feel to hit, but has been bedeviled by injuries all the way back to his senior year of high school. Right-hander Pearson McMahan (17) was their fourth-round pick in 2017, up to 93-94 as a starter with a power slider, a project arm who has stuff but not command or control. Southpaw Nick Kennedy (18), their fifth-rounder, is also up to 94 and has a solid curveball, but needs to show he has the third pitch to get right-handers out to remain a starter. Lefty Ben Bowden missed the year with a bulging disc in his back; he projects as a middle reliever when healthy.

2018 impact: Ryan McMahon should be their first baseman this year; he's got nothing left to prove or learn in the minors, and the Rockies don't have an incumbent at the position.

Sleeper: Ryan Vilade is very exciting because his bat might be as advanced as advertised, and he seems athletic enough to be above-average at second or third unless he outgrows the infield completely.

The fallen: Mike Nikorak (27th overall pick, 2015) had Tommy John surgery and should be back in 2018, while Robert Tyler (38th overall, 2016) missed all of 2017 with a shoulder injury. Both had trouble throwing strikes before their injuries, so there's at least hope their control will improve once they're fully recovered.

This post was edited by SheriffCool on Feb 22 2018 06:18pm

Los Angeles Dodgers
Edwin Rios can hit, but with Cody Bellinger locked in at first base, there's no place for him in the field in L.A. -- for now. Tim Warner/Getty Images

The Dodgers' system remains strong if slightly shallower than it has been in recent years, as they've promoted several superstar prospects and traded some of that depth to fuel playoff runs.

1. Walker Buehler, RHP (ranked No. 12)
2. Alex Verdugo, OF (ranked No. 36)
3. Yadier Alvarez, RHP (ranked No. 52)
4. Keibert Ruiz, C (ranked No. 97)
5. Yusniel Diaz, OF
6. Mitch White, RHP
7. DJ Peters, OF
8. Edwin Rios, 1B
9. Gavin Lux, SS
10. Will Smith, C

Non-top 100 prospects

Yusniel Diaz started slowly, but in mid-May the Dodgers' player development staff gave him a little leg lift to help keep him more closed at the plate, after which he took off, hitting .308/.357/.495 the rest of the season. He has played all three outfield spots, is capable in center but is not a regular there, and as a right or left fielder his bat makes him either an average regular or an above-average one, but not a star. He was somewhere in the 101-120 range for me. I saw Mitch White throw lights-out in spring training, 95-97 with a hammer curve and slider, but after he returned from a foot injury his stuff and command were both down, adding to a history of durability problems that kept him off my top 100 more than anything else. He needs to show he can bring plus stuff every time out and still make 25 starts a year.

Everyone compares DJ Peters to Jayson Werth for their physical resemblance and combination of power and athleticism, although Peters doesn't have Werth's eye or pure bat-to-ball skills. He was second in all of minor league baseball with 189 strikeouts last year, but when he put the ball in play, stuff happened, with a .276/.372/.514 line that put him in the top 10 in the Cal League in doubles (eighth), homers (third) and walks (second). His swing is long and contact might always be an issue, so he's going to have to find a way to keep the strikeout rate from rising as he faces better pitching.

Edwin Rios has done nothing but hit in two-plus years since the Dodgers took him in the sixth round in 2015 out of FIU; he hit .309/.362/.533 last year between Double-A and Triple-A, has all-fields power, posts good exit velocities, and is hopelessly blocked at first base in L.A. by Cody Bellinger. He has played third in the minors but first is his ideal spot. He looks like a future regular. Gavin Lux, the team's first-round pick in 2016, had a solid full-season debut, going to low-A at 19 and showing some plate discipline, improving as the season went on as he adjusted to better velocity. He's got a chance to be average or better at shortstop and would be plus at second. The biggest hurdle for him seems to be left-handed pitching, as he probably didn't see any quality southpaws as a Wisconsin high schooler. Will Smith is a plus framer and throwing catcher who puts the ball in play a lot but doesn't project to hit for any power or much average, a high-floor guy who should be a very good backup, with a non-zero chance to be a regular if he surprises with the bat.

Starling Heredia (11) tore apart two short-season leagues (.427/.492/.764) and ended 2017 in the low-A Midwest League as an 18-year-old, showing why the Dodgers gave him $2.6 million back in July of 2015. He's a bit stocky but can run solid-average and has obvious power with a plus arm, playing mostly corners in 2017 and probably ending up in right. The hit tool will determine his future, as he has the secondary tools; he was overmatched in Great Lakes but was so young for the league it doesn't seem worth worrying about.

Jeren Kendall (12) was the Dodgers' first-round pick in 2017, with 70 speed, plus power, above-average or better defense in center, and a disastrous swing that requires an overhaul if he's ever going to hit. It was a lottery ticket selection -- if he develops a real swing that uses his lower half and that he can repeat, he will be a star, but there's a good chance he never gets to the majors, too. Dustin May (13) is very athletic with a loose arm, 91-95 with good life up in the zone and a hard tilting slider at 85-86; the Dodgers have cleaned up his delivery a little bit, although he can still land stiffly, and his changeup is a work in progress. He has grade 80 hair, though.

The Dodgers took catcher Connor Wong (14) in the third round out of the University of Houston because he's a good framer with bat-to-ball skills and at least an average arm. He's a little undersized for a catcher, so amateur scouts worried about his durability behind the plate. Right-hander Dennis Santana (15) is 94-96 with a slider up to 90 where he drops down a little to create more angle, pitching well as a starter through Double-A but running into more trouble with lefties due to his arm slot and lack of a viable third pitch. He projects as a right-on-right reliever.

Right-hander Jordan Sheffield (16), brother of Yankees lefty Justus, was a fastball/changeup guy in college, but lefties killed him this year, .285/.375/.448 in low-A and then .368/.395/.442 in five outings in high-A, and he didn't throw enough strikes overall. He's athletic and competitive, but he's also 5-foot-10 and has already had TJ surgery, so there's a lot of bullpen potential here with the poor first-year performance.

Caleb Ferguson (17) was a holdover from the previous regime, in Logan White's last draft for the Dodgers; they took him in the 38th round out of an Ohio high school after he'd had Tommy John surgery, and he posted an 8.59 ERA with 21 walks in 14 innings the following summer in his pro debut. Last year, the Dodgers jumped him from short-season to high-A Rancho Cucamonga and he broke out, touching 96 and sitting 92-93 with some sink, while striking out more than a quarter of the guys he faced. He improved as the season went on and had three straight 10-strikeout games in August, killing lefties with an above-average curveball.

Omar Estevez (18) is still young but hasn't hit yet since signing for $6 million in 2015; the Cuban middle infielder will turn 20 in February, but other than a solid contact rate he was disappointing in high-A last year. Right-hander James Marinan (19) was in the low 90s most of the spring but ticked up to 97 close to the draft and the Dodgers popped him in the fourth round; he'll show an above-average curveball, has a changeup, but is still fairly raw as a pitcher and doesn't have much present command. Drew Jackson (20) might get some big-league time as a backup infielder who can handle shortstop and run but doesn't project to hit.

2018 impact: Walker Buehler is a starter long-term despite his relief stint in the majors in September, and with all of the injury problems the Dodgers' current starters have had, he should get an opportunity to join the rotation this year. Rios is blocked, but if Bellinger were to get hurt, he'd be ready to fill in. Alex Verdugo is also ready but blocked at all three outfield spots, at least for now.

Sleeper: If White is healthy and does what I saw him do for even ¾ of a season, he's an easy mid top-100 guy. If you want someone further away, Starling Heredia is pretty fascinating given what he showed last summer at 18.

The fallen: The Dodgers gave Mitchell Hansen just under $1 million to buy him out of a Stanford commitment in 2015, but his full-season debut last year at age 21 -- old for low-A -- was awful (.198/.288/.312) and he's limited to left field or first base.

San Diego Padres

You might want to fix yourself a snack before you sit down to read this team report. Maybe get a lovely beverage. Hit the bathroom first, just in case. You're going to be here for a while.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS (ranked No. 3)
2. MacKenzie Gore, LHP (ranked No. 14)
3. Luis Urias, SS/2B (ranked No. 38)
4. Michel Baez, RHP (ranked No. 51)
5. Adrian Morejon, LHP (ranked No. 72)
6. Cal Quantrill, RHP (ranked No. 81)
7. Logan Allen, LHP (ranked No. 89)
8. Eric Lauer, LHP
9. Jorge Oña, OF
10. Anderson Espinoza, RHP

Non-top 100 prospects

Eric Lauer is a four-pitch lefty with above-average control and average command, killing left-handed batters last year at two levels, becoming a bit vulnerable to right-handed power after he got to Double-A. All 10 homers he allowed last year were to right-handers, six of those coming after his promotion at the end of June. He comes a little across his body, which makes him deceptive against left-handed batters but might be part of the issue he had last year with righties, and cross-body guys do have some added injury concerns. He looks like a likely fourth starter who could see the majors as soon as this summer.

Jorge Oña signed as a free agent for $7 million in 2016, then made his debut last year at age 20 in low-A Fort Wayne, hitting .277/.351/.405 but playing the field less as the season went on due to a sore shoulder. He also seemed to tire out in August, but his swing still looked good and he showed some feel for working the count. There's enough here to be optimistic he'll still end up a regular, maybe an above-average one, in right field.

Anderson Espinoza was a high top 100 prospect but missed all of last year with an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery; he probably won't be back until instructional league. Even in spring training last year, Espinoza was 94-98 with good life down in the zone and a pretty easy delivery, showing a curveball and changeup, with just a little cutoff in his landing to concern you. He has, or at least has showed, No. 1 starter potential, but we might not know until 2019 if that has changed.

Editor's Picks

Keith Law's complete guide to NL East prospects: Braves are stacked, Phillies improving

With two of MLB's top five systems, the NL East is loaded with some of the best young talent in baseball.
Keith Law's complete guide to NL Central prospects: Reds loading up on stars, Cubs trying to restock system

With Hunter Greene and Nick Senzel in it, CIncinnati's system is the division's best. Which other NL Central teams have big-time talent on the way to the majors?
Index of Keith Law's 2018 top prospect rankings

Between minor leaguers with major league bloodlines and future stars who have been involved in major trades, there are plenty of familiar names on this year's list. Where did your team's top young players land?

Right-hander Joey Lucchesi (11) gets guys out with a funky delivery and crazy extension out front, letting his average stuff really play up. He'll sit 91-92 with a good changeup, curve and slider, throwing strike after strike because he repeats his delivery immaculately. There's still reliever risk, in part because he doesn't have a truly above-average pitch, and in part because it's weird, but he wrecked high-A hitters and held his own in Double-A last year. You have to at least let him continue to start.

Tirso Ornelas (12) has been a favorite of mine since he signed because I loved his swing, and he has already started filling out his 6-4 frame well and showing big-league-caliber power. He's more than average in right field, and showed a great approach as a 17-year-old in the AZL, finishing second in the league in walks (behind a 21-year-old) and 10th in OBP.

Esteury Ruiz (13) was the critical piece in the midseason trade that sent Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter to Kansas City. He's an offensive second baseman, shredded physically with serious juice when the ball leaves his bat, too aggressive at the plate and far from a finished product on defense. He's still got clear room for improvement, but massive upside, and will go to low-A this year at age 19.

Pedro Avila (14), acquired from the Nationals for Derek Norris, is a 6-foot right-hander who struck out 170 men in 129 innings last year, a bright kid with good feel for pitching and some stuff to back it up. He'll pitch up to 94 with a slider, curve and changeup; can sink the fastball a little; and pounds the strike zone with everything. He started the year in high-A, had four bad starts (15 R allowed in 15 IP), then was better for a month, but the Padres sent him back to low-A anyway because they had too many starters. He posted four double-digit strikeout games for Fort Wayne in 14 starts, including a 17K performance against Great Lakes on Aug. 8 when he faced just 27 batters in eight innings. He just turned 21 in mid-January and could still gain a little velo, with league-average starter a reasonable ceiling right now.

Chris Paddack (15) should be back and 100 percent by spring training after he missed half of 2016 and all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Padres acquired Paddack for Fernando Rodney but he blew out three starts after the trade -- and bear in mind, the Padres were forced to give back Luis Castillo in a later trade with the Marlins over Colin Rea's elbow, but no one forced the Marlins to make good on this deal. Paddack was up to 95 with a grade-65 changeup and no average third pitch before the injury, someone who could be a No. 2 or 3 if he finds a usable breaking ball and a 4 or 5 without it.

Jacob Nix's (16) season started late due to a groin injury, but he was excellent in high-A Lake Elsinore and earned an August promotion to Double-A, where he was fine outside of one disaster start where he gave up eight runs in 0.2 innings. Nix will work in the 93-95 range with an improved breaking ball and above-average changeup, throwing strikes but not missing as many bats as his stuff should. He can stay too upright in his delivery, but if he can finish out over his front side more -- closer to the plate -- he'll get a little more zip on his fastball.

Luis Campusano (17) was their second-round pick in 2017, a Georgia high school catcher who has some real juice in the bat, an average to above-average arm, and good blocking skills behind the plate. He might be a level-a-year guy as he works on receiving, game-calling and developing his approach as a hitter, but has above-average regular upside because of the power potential.

Reggie Lawson (18) has more upside than Avila but is further away, still working at 91-94 with a better curveball than he had his senior year in high school. He has trouble working deeper into games and facing hitters multiple times, which could be the lack of stamina of a 19-year-old pitcher or a sign that hitters see the ball too well from him. He's very athletic and his stuff still misses so many bats (28 percent in 2017) I think this is more about durability than stuff or deception.

Hudson Potts (19) went to Fort Wayne as an 18-year-old and was awful early, but made more contact as the season went on and finished with 23 doubles and 20 homers, with 18 of those bombs coming from June 1 onward as he cut his strikeout rate. His range at third will probably always be his weak spot, but his hands are good and he has the arm to stay there. He didn't walk much, and has to continue to refine his eye and swing decisions.

San Diego added Edward Olivares (20) in the trade that sent Yangervis Solarte to Toronto after Olivares had a breakout year as a 21-year-old in low-A. A speed/power guy who should stay in center field, Olivares was behind most players his age because injuries limited him to 15 games in 2016, all in the Appy League, which was his only experience above the complex league coming into last year. This will be an important year for him, with everyday upside based on his tools and position as well as a solid fourth-outfielder floor.

Shortstop Gabriel Arias (21), born Feb. 27, 2000, finished the year in the low-A, full-season Midwest League after a solid two months in the Arizona Rookie League, and actually hit an empty .240. To put it another way, Arias is 15 months younger than Austin Beck, the sixth pick in last year's draft out of a North Carolina high school, and ended up in Fort Wayne. He has a good swing that right now just produces contact, with average power to come. At short, he has a hose with good hands and the lateral range to stay at the position and even end up a plus defender. He may be pushed back to Fort Wayne as a result of the Padres' "what if we signed all the shortstops?" strategy.

Josh Naylor (22), a former first-round pick of the Marlins acquired in trade, had his best year at the plate but has gotten big enough that he might have to be a DH. He does have power and his plate discipline is fine; he has shown a modest platoon split that might worsen as he advanced but so far doesn't tag him as just a platoon player.

Justin Lopez (23) went to the advanced short-season Northwest League as a 17-year-old because the Padres had Too Many Shortstops, and he scuffled at the plate, as you'd expect from a kid that young, from Venezuela, in his first pro experience. He is an excellent defensive shortstop, the best of the group the Padres signed last year, and he does have a good swing for contact, but might find himself pushed past his present ability because they need to find places for all these dudes to play.

Jeison Rosario (24) finished ninth in the AZL in OBP, just five points ahead of Ornelas, with less power but better defense. Rosario is a no-doubt center fielder who might end up a 70 there with good OBP skills and some doubles. He didn't turn 18 until after the 2017 season.

Franchy Cordero (25) has been a bit overlooked in the flood of younger prospects coming into the system, but he could be a part of the Padres' outfield this year, a power/speed guy with dubious plate discipline who struggled with fastballs up in the big leagues. He's probably an extra guy in the end, but it's worth giving him some time the next two seasons to see if he can be selective enough to let the plus power play.

Shortstop Luis Almanzar (26) got the biggest bonus of their July 2 haul outside of the Cuban defectors, taking $4.05 million home, but his debut last year for Tri-City was underwhelming, although like many of their other prospects he was just 17 and young for anything but complex-league ball. He does have a beautiful swing with good loft and plenty of hip rotation, so if he doesn't hit and hit for some power, it'd have to be about plate discipline, and Almanzar's wasn't awful enough to write him off. He's probably going to move to third in the near future.

Andres Munoz (27) is just 18 but has hit 102 mph and will pitch at 94-98 with a plus curveball. He's a pure reliever with an arm action reminiscent of Craig Kimbrel's. His control isn't good enough yet to race him up the system, but if it gets there, the Padres might as well promote him aggressively because the stuff is so good and might not last.

Trey Wingenter (28) kept adding velocity the past two years and has hit 100, often sitting 96-99 with a power slider, getting touched up a little by lefties but overpowering most of them. At worst he looks like a good right-on-right guy.

Brad Wieck (29) is a 6-9 lefty who dominated Double-A last year with a solid-average fastball and good changeup, with reverse platoon splits the past two years, although he scuffled in a midyear promotion to El Paso and finished up back in the Texas League. The Padres swiped him from the Mets to complete a 2015 trade for Alex Torres, who threw 31 innings for New York that year and was out of baseball before the following season.

Tucupita Marcano (30) is a 6-foot, left-handed-hitting shortstop whose father played in the minors for several years, and who, as far as I can tell, was named for the Venezuelan town in which he was born. His swing works, and while he didn't hit for average in the DSL last year at 17, he rarely struck out and worked the count well, just lacking the strength to do enough when he put the ball in play. He's not a shortstop long-term, but should be fine on the dirt and does project to really hit.

But wait, there's more: Jordy Barley plays a bit out of control, but the ball absolutely flies off his bat because his hands are so strong. He's not a shortstop -- especially not in this system -- and he needs to walk more than once a week, but there's some explosive ability here if he can get to it. ... Mason Thompson's year was a disappointment as he made just seven mediocre starts around shoulder injuries; he'd been 91-94 in the spring when I saw him with a power curveball and too-firm changeup. Thompson only threw one inning his senior year of high school while recovering from Tommy John, so he's missed most of the past three years now with arm problems. ... Right-hander Michell Miliano threw just 15 innings in the AZL and gave up 16 runs, but the 17-year-old is 90-92 with a tight 75-77 mph curveball that projects to plus. He's about 6-4, athletic, and super projectable, but obviously a ways off from being a top 20 guy in this system. ... They took a very interesting if long-term prospect in the fifth round in 2017 with Alaska prep infielder Johnny Homza, a natural third baseman who they're converting to catcher. The swing is good, but inconsistent, and he's going to need time to learn to be a catcher and to hit pro pitching. He's the highest-drafted player ever to sign out of an Alaska high school. ... I have to mention just one more right-handed reliever, even though he's probably a middle guy at best. He's 92-95 with plus life, has a decent little slider around 79-81, but the delivery is pure relief, with no stride or use of his lower half and gate-swinging motion like Tyson Ross'. I wouldn't even include him, but this 19-year-old, who started for short-season Tri-City last year, is named ... Henry Henry. And I very much want him to get to the big leagues.

2018 impact: As strange as it might sound for a team with the No. 3 farm system, the Padres probably won't get much production from rookies this year, as they may have only one or two on their entire Opening Day roster. Franchy Cordero could make the club as part of an outfield rotation, since they don't have a true incumbent in left. Maybe Eric Lauer or Cal Quantrill gets a call-up late in the season, and I would hope Luis Urias would get that chance after he rakes in Triple-A, but for now their roster is set.

Sleeper: Do I have to pick just one? I'm a believer in Tirso Ornelas' bat, both the swing and the approach, and he impressed scouts who saw him in the AZL last summer (where the Padres had to field two teams to get everyone some reps). It will also be interesting to see what Chris Paddack looks like when he returns.

The fallen: You take the good, you take the bad, as Mrs. Garrett would say. Their 2016 second-rounder Buddy Reed always had a bad swing, and hit just .234/.290/.396 as a 22-year-old in low-A. Their first pick in 2015, second-rounder Austin Smith, repeated Fort Wayne, then was demoted to short-season and moved to relief.

San Francisco Giants
Tyler Beede could crack the Giants' starting rotation in 2018. Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

There's no sugar-coating it -- this is a bad system, stripped by trades, promotions and some high draft picks that haven't panned out, along with a near-total lack of prospects from the international side.

1. Heliot Ramos, OF (ranked No. 95)
2. Stephen Duggar, OF
3. Tyler Beede, RHP
4. Garrett Williams, LHP
5. Jacob Gonzalez, 3B
6. Aramis Garcia, C
7. Chris Shaw, 1B
8. Austin Slater, IF/OF
9. Sandro Fabian, OF
10. Shaun Anderson, RHP

Non-top 100 prospects

Stephen Duggar has made himself into a good defensive outfielder at all three spots, and might get a shot at the center field job -- at least as a platoon player -- this spring. He missed most of 2017 with a flexor strain and then a hamstring issue, but when healthy shows a solid approach at the plate, above-average speed, and below-average power. Tyler Beede's year ended in late July with a groin injury, but he'd been struggling in the PCL, some of which was the league's extreme hitters' parks (he gave up five homers in one outing at Las Vegas, some of which was command-related). He might have too many pitches, with a four- and two-seamer, slider, change and curveball, and could benefit from simplifying his mix and using his four-seamer, which can reach 97, up top of the zone as a chase pitch.

Garrett Williams was the biggest surprise in the system last year, his first full year in pro ball after an injury-plagued career at Oklahoma State, coming into camp in great shape and flashing three average-or-better pitches. His fastball will touch 95, his change shows plus, and he can vary his breaking ball depending on the hitter's handedness. The Giants limited his innings last year but he should be good for a full slate in 2018, starting in Double-A.

Jacob Gonzalez was their second-round pick in 2017 out of a Scottsdale High School. The son of Luis Gonzalez, Jacob is a bat-first prospect with projected power, a third baseman now likely to end up at first. He raked in the Arizona Rookie League, rarely swinging and missing, but was already 19 when the schedule began. Aramis Garcia looks like a solid backup catcher with some pop; he had mechanical issues with his throwing this year but normally is solid-average against the running game. Chris Shaw has 70 power with a below-average hit tool and is a mediocre first baseman; I don't think he sees the ball well at all and he was overmatched in Triple-A last year.

Austin Slater is a promising multi-position player, probably not good enough defensively to start in the middle and lacking the power for a corner, but with the ability to make a lot of contact and fill in at second, third or anywhere in the outfield. Sandro Fabian played in the Sally League at 19 last year, hitting .277/.290/.408, with 41 extra-base hits but just 10 walks in 503 plate appearances. He's a plus defender in right with a 65 arm, a slightly below-average runner, and projects to above-average power. It's really all projection given his youth and lack of any patience at the plate. Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston for Eduardo Nunez, was a closer at the University of Florida but has a chance to start, with a fastball up to 95, a cutter and a changeup.

Andrew Suarez (11) is a command lefty, up to 95 with an above-average changeup, throwing strikes with four pitches, almost certainly a back-end starter who might get to league average. Seth Corry (12) was their third-rounder in 2017, a baby-faced lefty from Utah who'll touch 93-94 and can spin a curveball, with some recoil in his delivery; he's an interesting long-term project.

Heath Quinn (13) strained an oblique muscle coming out of spring training, missing six weeks, and later in the season had some shoulder soreness, so his miserable year might have been the product of injury. He'll turn 23 in June and probably needs to get to Double-A this season; the most likely outcome is fourth outfielder but he has a chance to be a regular with sneaky power. Garrett Cave (14) was their fourth-round pick in 2017 out of the University of Tampa, a right-hander with arm strength and the makings of an average slider, but he's crude as a pitcher and more akin to a high school or junior college arm in his development. Joan Gregorio (15) was underperforming a bit as a starter in Triple-A when he tested positive for PEDs, ending his season at 74 innings in 13 starts. He might be a fifth starter or middle reliever.

2018 impact: Stephen Duggar may be a platoon center fielder with Austin Jackson, and Slater will probably be on the bench. Tyler Beede and/or Garrett Williams will be competing for starting spots in camp.

Sleeper: Garrett Williams is enticing if he's healthy, as he has the pitch mix to start and at least average present command.

The fallen: The Giants' top two picks from 2015 both debuted in the majors last year and were not good. Christian Arroyo hit .192/.244/.304 and was traded for Evan Longoria in the winter. Ryder Jones hit .173/.244/.273 in 53 games, losing his prospect eligibility for this year. Adding injury to insult, their third-rounder from that year, Chase Johnson, had Tommy John surgery in April.

Buster Olney's top 10 left fielders: Superstar shake-up has big names left out to dry
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Jan 9, 2018

Buster OlneyESPN Senior Writer

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After a month of bad reviews over the trade of MVP Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins might be inclined to hang on to their best remaining player, Christian Yelich, who is among MLB’s top 10 left fielders -- the position where he is expected to play in 2018.

Yelich has a team-friendly contract and will make only $7 million this season, so there’s no immediate pressure on Miami to deal him. In a year in which the Marlins will be a recurring punchline, Derek Jeter & Co. could cling to Yelich as a piece of credibility in the way that the San Diego Padres kept Tony Gwynn and Andy Benes through their 1993 fire sale of Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff and others.
Buster Olney's Top 10s

Check out Buster Olney's 2018 rankings:

» Starting pitchers »
» Relievers »
» Catchers »
» First basemen »
» Second basemen »
» Third basemen »
» Shortstops »
» Left fielders »
» Center fielders »
» Right fielders »
» Teams »
» Best units »

» Olney's Top 10 index page

But there’s a strong argument to be made that the Marlins’ best strategy is to deal Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and any other veteran of value, because any lasting damage that has been done to the franchise by Jeter’s Project Wolverine teardown could be irreversible -- unless the Marlins execute a near-perfect, cost-efficient rebuild. And even then, it may not matter to fans in south Florida.

The truncated history of the Montreal Expos might provide the best comparison to where the Marlins stand now. As the Montreal ownership made decisions about the team’s finances, the Expos’ fan base endured repeated departures of Hall of Fame-caliber players: Gary Carter. Andre Dawson. Tim Raines. Vladimir Guerrero. Pedro Martinez.

Eventually, the fans in Montreal stopped going to games. After Martinez was traded in the fall of 1997, the Expos’ attendance fell by about 40 percent, to less than 1 million, and in 2001, Montreal drew just 643,000. The 2004 Expos drew 750,000, with a lot of that accounted for by fans saying goodbye to the team.

Depending on how the Marlins handle their accounting this year, they may become the first MLB team since the ’04 Expos to fail to reach 1 million in attendance. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins’ through-the-turnstile count last year was closer to 800,000, or about half of their announced attendance of 1.59 million. With the trades of Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, the team will likely be terrible in 2018 and for at least three or four years after that, as the front office goes through its rebuilding/tanking. Yelich’s presence in a Marlins uniform isn’t going to fool fans about the product.

What’s most important now for the Marlins’ front office is to collect and develop the right group of prospects, and to time its collective ascension the way that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros did theirs. It’s a nearly impossible challenge, of course, because the Marlins aren’t embedded in the hearts of their fan base the way the Cubs were, nor do they have the financial potential of the Astros to augment their young players. The truth is that Project Wolverine is the baseball equivalent of a Hail Mary, because even if they get it right, fans in south Florida might not care anymore -- after the breakups of the ’97 and ’03 championship teams, the trade of 24-year-old superstar Miguel Cabrera, the swap of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle even after the opening of the taxpayer-funded ballpark, and now the salary dump of Stanton.

The new ownership group had one chance to make a first impression, one chance to distinguish itself from the distrusted regimes of the past. That has been squandered, and mortal damage may have been done to the market. Considering where the Marlins are today, they might as well push ahead and "rip the whole Band-Aid off,” as a rival executive said. “They might as well take all the pain now.”

So yes, the time is right to trade Yelich. His inclusion in the top-10 list below is based on the input of evaluators, with the counsel of ESPN researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.

1. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals

Under Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins sometimes acted rashly, doing stuff you’d never see from other organizations, such as when longtime evaluator Dan Jennings was named manager despite having zero experience in that role. But every so often, the impetuosity paid off -- and maybe it did with Marcell Ozuna. The young slugger showed up to spring training heavy and out of shape, and in midseason the Marlins demoted him to the minors, against the objections of his agent, Scott Boras.

You can debate how much the rebuke actually affected his play, but there’s no doubt that Ozuna improved a lot the past two years, which is why the Cardinals aggressively targeted him over the winter and will install him in the middle of their lineup. Ozuna was an average center fielder at best, but he is a good left fielder; only Brett Gardner had more defensive runs saved than Ozuna last year.

2. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ intention is to shift Yelich back to left field if they keep him, and if he’s traded he’s likely to be a corner outfielder moving forward. His power numbers have jumped the past two seasons -- he hit a total of 39 homers in 2016 and 2017 -- and any team that acquires him can do so with the expectation that Yelich’s production will continue to climb outside of the Marlins’ cavernous home park. Incredibly, 41 of his 59 career homers have been hit on the road, where his OPS has been 80 points higher than in his home games. He has been remarkably consistent in his ability to get on base: In his five seasons, Yelich’s OBP has ranged between .362 and .376 annually.

3. Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels

The Angels traded for Upton to help with the last month of their pennant push last season, but they also bought a one-month audition -- a test-drive with one of baseball’s best power hitters. And they liked what they saw, because after the season they negotiated a one-year extension for Upton, who could’ve opted out of his contract. "Justin embodied our offensive philosophy, which is to get on base and hit the ball hard," Angels GM Billy Eppler said on the night that the signing was announced. "He's shown a knack for doing that. He's got the power and the on-base skills that we covet, as well as the character and the professional approach necessary to be a key member of our core moving forward."
Flashback

Check out Buster Olney's ranking of the top 10 left fielders from before last season. 2017 Top 10 »

Upton hit 35 homers last year and has had at least 26 homers in each of the past six seasons. He tied for 23rd in wRC+ among all hitters who qualified for the batting title.

4. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox

If not for Aaron Judge, Benintendi would’ve won the AL Rookie of the Year Award after a very solid first showing -- and there’s probably a lot more power to come. A longtime scout noted Benintendi’s unusual swing and its natural uppercut, giving him the ability to get the ball in the air, and as he learns more about pitchers and how he’s being attacked, that will likely manifest more and more. Benintendi hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases and scored 84 runs in his first season, and he ran the bases well and played good defensive.

5. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets

Cespedes' physical condition at the outset of spring training might be the biggest story in Mets camp again because of how last year played out. He reported to camp with the body of a middle linebacker after an offseason of heavy weight training, and after daily eruptions in batting practice, the Mets were hopeful that he would have a monster season. But Cespedes broke down repeatedly last summer and played just half of the Mets’ games, creating an enormous hole in the lineup. The Mets aren’t expecting anything out of David Wright, they need a second baseman and a first baseman, and they don’t know what they’ll get out of Matt Harvey -- and they can probably overcome all of that uncertainty and still contend. But given the structure of the Mets’ lineup and the $87 million they have invested in Cespedes moving ahead, it’s hard to imagine they can win in 2018 unless the 32-year-old Cespedes plays in 130-plus games. If he played 150 games, he would probably be MLB’s best left fielder.

6. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

As the Yankees have worked to manage their payroll and roster needs in recent winters, they have been open to the idea of trading Gardner -- and have been surprised by how unaggressive other teams have been. Gardner has been a clubhouse leader, a consistent source of accountability, and the Yankees have loved him for that, but he also has been a good player, with a solid on-base percentage (.350 last season), tough and extended at-bats, good defense, good baserunning, versatility and his emotional flexibility -- he'll do whatever they need him to. Now the Yankees may well keep him through the remainder of his contract, which pays him $11.5 million in 2018, with a club option for $12.5 million in 2019.

7. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins

A rival evaluator following the Twins believes that, collectively, their young hitters make an effort to ignore breaking pitches early in the count. They chased out of the strike zone less and gave themselves a chance to see better pitches later in the count. This seemed to really help Rosario, who improved significantly as the 2017 season progressed, hitting .311 with a .351 OBP and a .568 SLG after June 13. He finished the year with an adjusted OPS+ of 120. It was a crossroad season for him: Rosario’s patience at the plate improved, he gave himself a better chance to get better pitches to hit, and his rate of contact climbed.

8. Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
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He has hit 85 homers over the past two seasons, but he will be an interesting test case in the next year of the industry’s investment in defense. The Brewers traded Davis to Oakland a few years ago partly because of their concern about his outfield play, and metrics indicated that last season was his worst year defensively -- only six outfielders scored lower in defensive runs saved than Davis, who posted a minus-13 mark. Oakland manager Bob Melvin played him in fewer games in the outfield. In 2016, Chris Carter led the National League in home runs -- and then was nontendered. Davis made $5 million last season and will get a big raise this winter because the arbitration process rewards players for success with the old-school statistics like homers and RBI. If Oakland drifts out of contention in 2018 -- which is likely, given the strength at the top of the AL West -- and the Athletics dangle Davis in the trade market, the level of interest will be the first strong indication of how Davis' skill set is actually valued by rival evaluators.

9. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

With the start of spring training a little more than a month away, the Pirates haven’t wholly embraced a course of action for 2018; after weeks of trade discussion, they still have Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison on their roster. They still have the option of trying to win in 2018.

A really important variable in their plans is the expected performance of Marte, and the simple fact of the matter is they have no way of knowing what type of player he will be in the year ahead. Marte was busted for PEDs early last season and didn't produce after he returned from suspension: In those 64 games, he had a .723 OPS with 13 extra-base hits, although he batted .330 in his last 23 games. Because of his lack of time on the field during the regular season, the Pirates gave him the OK to play winter ball, and he initially struggled before finishing with a .255 average and .310 on-base percentage.

The Pirates don’t know if Marte’s strong play in the past was rooted in PED use, or if he can be a high-end offensive player. At the very least, he’ll help Pittsburgh’s defense (and pitching, by extension) with his glove work. He had eight defensive runs saved in just 665⅓ innings last season.

10. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

His impact in the big leagues was immediate -- 18 homers in 50 games -- but the lasting impression that Hoskins made on some evaluators was his willingness to take a walk as opposing pitchers tried to cope with his power. He drew 37 walks and averaged 4.65 pitches per plate appearance, and had a .396 on-base percentage. Hoskins will have to face more counterattacks in his second season in the big leagues, but the Phillies saw enough of him in the lineup and in left field to buy into three years of Carlos Santana at first base, giving Philadelphia a powerful lineup core.
Best of the rest

• Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians: He hit .299 in 90 games, but then suffered an ankle injury.

• Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds: Duvall continues to do a lot of damage -- he’s got back-to-back seasons with at least 70 extra-base hits.

• Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: In his first full season in the big leagues, he had an adjusted OPS+ of 120, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

• Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays: He made the AL All-Star team for the first time.

• Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: He was off to a phenomenal start in 2017 with a .393 OBP when he went down with a knee injury. The Nationals plan to move him to left field in 2018