Quote (Voyaging @ Sep 12 2014 03:15am)
Tons of places online that take virtually unlimited bets, moneyline on democrats winning is -180 last I checked sooo (this means you need to bet $180 to win $100)... just saying
Oh absolutely, and I use several of them each and every cycle because the bet made at the proper time is essentially automatic. But making the smart bet at the wrong time in the cycle is just irresponsible and careless; it's why no one should be comfortable betting on an electoral outcome months in advance (let alone years), even if they're skilled enough to be able to correctly analyze how a neutral election cycle would play out. You just have no guarantee that a neutral environment stays neutral or if even
begins neutral. 2012 was a fairly neutral cycle, Republican-friendly to a degree, and yet it was extremely easy to comfortably bet on an Obama victory by August or even mid-July. But if the media covers the VP debate/2nd presidential debate like they covered the aftermath of the 1st debate in Denver, or if the 47% video never gets leaked, or if the networks cut Clinton off a third of the way through his DNC speech then the margin could have gotten much smaller than the relatively wide margin that Obama won by.
2016 could lurch from neutral to favorable/unfavorable even easier. If it doesn't move, and if someone wanted to take the 2016 Republican nominee in a neutral environment at $100 then you should be comfortable putting up $200 because the outcome (a Democratic win) is just that likely in a true neutral environment. The same is true for $300, even $400. You just have to wait until you feel confident that neutral really does mean neutral and that it stays that way.