Some post-Super Tuesday updates to the ratings, because last night shook up the field of play a little:
House: likely range for outcome is D+1 - R+8 (from D+2 - R+8)
Senate: likely range for outcome is R+0 - R+7 (from R+1 - R+7)
Governors: likely range for outcome is D+5 - R+1 (same)
House: The changes are the result of the GOP getting its preferred candidate in the NJ-03 open race as well as two GOP State Senators (one former) advancing to November in CA-25 to prevent the Democrats from being able to compete for this GOP-held open seat. The Democrats did get some help when the contentious GOP primary in IA-03 was forced to a convention, increasing their odds of taking this GOP-held open seat.
Senate: The change is owed to the GOP needlessly putting a "Safe Republican" seat in play, driving incumbent Thad Cochran to a runoff against Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel where he is considered to be the underdog. If McDaniel does indeed win, it creates another legitimate pickup opportunity for the Democrats that wouldn't exist otherwise.
Quote (cambovenzi @ Jun 4 2014 01:39am)
Thinking you are justified or that there is more to the story does not mean that my claims are false.
You need to get that through your head.
Well, no, the data illustrates that your claims are false, as per usual.