Mississippi Senate Update: It looks like Chris McDaniel can't wage a write-in bid after all. It turns out the write-in votes only count if someone on the ballot dies. McDaniel's only prayer of going before voters on November is to file and win a legal challenge that contests the election results of the runoff.

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/dailyledes/2014/06/25/no-november-options-for-mcdaniel/11353221/

New Ranges
New House: D+2 - R+9
New Senate: R+0 - R+7
Governors: D+6 - R+2

House: The 2nd FEC quarter fundraising reports revealed a lot about the state of play. Scandal-plagued Rep. Michael Grimm raised a meager $68k in the second quarter while his opponent raised $400k. It looks to be impossible for the S.I. GOP to get Grimm's name off of the ballot and it's hard to see how the Democrats don't pick up this seat under the circumstances. That's a big deal because when you pair that likely victory with the likeliest of Democratic pickups in the D+5 district of CA-31 it cancels out the two automatic pickups that Republicans are expected to get due to Democratic retirements in NC-07 and UT-04. We're left with about 15 seats on the knife's edge; 7 are held by Republicans and 8 are held by Democrats. 4 of the seats are open and 3 of them were previously GOP held. The Democrats have a fundraising advantage in 11 of the 15 races, the GOP has an edge in 3 races, and the 15th race is a dead heat.

Senate: Many of the races moved in one direction or the other but the overall battleground didn't change. NH, MI, CO, and NC moved towards the Democrats in the last couple of weeks but IA, AR, and LA have appeared to move towards the Republicans. The race in KY is deadlocked, the GOP is still without a nominee in the deadlocked race in GA, and the race in AK is predictably of the lowest profile.

Governors: Democrats' hopes in GA were boosted when Jason Carter posted an extremely strong fundraising quarter, nearly doubling-up the incumbent Governor's haul. Governor Deal is also still being plagued by ethics problems, but Georgia's runoff system forces the Democrats to score a 50%+1 win on Election Day and that remains unlikely no matter how much Deal struggles. Kansas made the news when a list of 100 Republicans endorsed Governor Brownback's Democratic challenger Paul Davis, who continues to lead in polling. The Democrats are also closing in on Michigan Governor Rick Snyder and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Snyder's lead continues to shrink as more people become familiar with his challenger, former Congressman Mark Schauer, and Walker's opponent Mary Burke continues to hammer him on his "jobs promise" and the fog of scandal that is following him. The Republicans have made some progress in other states though: the challenges they're waging in Arkansas, Illinois, and Connecticut are holding up, and their incumbents in Iowa, New Mexico, and South Carolina have been benefited from RGA and outside group spending. Both parties have a lot of targets in the gubernatorial races and they're hitting them hard.

Today is primary day, or "runoff day" rather, in Georgia. Republicans David Perdue and Rep. Jack Kingston finished in the top two spots in the GOP Senate primary way back in May and Republicans go back to the polls today to pick their nominee. The winner will face Michelle Nunn, daughter of legendary Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. Sam's daughter has run close to a pitch-perfect campaign thus far, dramatically outfundraising all of her opponents (combined) while pulling in influential endorsements from notable officeholders, current and former. There's an ongoing debate on which Republican would have the best chance at defeating Nunn and holding the seat for their party. Perdue is more of an outsider who has leaned heavily on "pro-business" argument and who has self-funded a lot of his campaign, but he's a political neophyte who has made a lot of unforced errors. Kingston is more polished after a career in Washington but he has a long voting record that can be attacked and he has obvious ties to the more unpopular Congress in history.

Nunn has also been relying heavily on an outsider's message so her ideal opponent would probably be Kingston. He's been a better fundraiser than Perdue but he lacks Perdue's ability to dump $3 million into his campaign at the drop of a hat. A matchup with Kingston also would allow Nunn to continue running as the outsider with bipartisan credibility and a nonpartisan resume. Nunn is probably rooting for Kingston to win tonight, and most people expect that to happen because he's had a pretty consistent polling lead in the last couple of months.

The likely outcome ranges last updated here are still the most plausible, but there have been a lot of changes in individual races.

In the Senate, Georgia Republicans finally have their man in former Dollar General CEO David Perdue. The extra 11 weeks needed for the GOP to pick its nominee forces Perdue to immediately play catchup to Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn: she has over $4.75 million in the bank while Perdue is down to $780,000. This isn't as problematic for Perdue as it would be for a normal candidate. He's already dumped millions of his own into the race and will likely do so again. The race in Montana between appointed Democratic incumbent John Walsh and Republican Rep. Steve Daines had tightened considerably over the last two weeks, recently shrinking Daines' lead down to single-digits. However a new development from the New York Times will probably push the momentum in the other direction now that it's been reported that Walsh apparently plagiarized some of his thesis.

The 2nd quarter fundraising reports were kind to the Democrats: they have COH leads in 11 of the 16 competitive races. Their number would be 12 were it not for Michigan Republican Terri Lynn Land self-funding her campaign with $3 million of her own money. The GOP candidates have two large money leads in MT and WV and a small lead in SD, three seats they are expected to win, but beyond that they are not performing well in the fundraising department. Their challengers in CO, GA, IA, MN, NC, NH, OR, and VA are trailing badly. Their advantage in MI is self-purchased. Their vulnerable incumbent in KY has routinely been outraised by his challenger and will not have much of a fundraising edge by Election Day. The only bright spots are their challengers in AK, AR, and LA.

In Montana, appointed Senator John Walsh has decided to stop campaigning to be elected to a full term this November. Ordinarily this might have some sort of electoral impact but that is unlikely in this case, as the Montana seat was already widely expected to flip on Election Day because the Democrats put very little effort into contesting the race once so many of their A-list candidates passed last year. With Walsh out, the Montana Democratic Party has about two weeks to name his replacement on the ballot. The party will probably put a call into all the people who passed last year (including but not limited to Monica Lindeen, Denise Juneau, Mike McGrath) but their only real hope for a competitive pick will be if former Governor Brian Schweitzer decides to jump into the race after saying no thanks last July.

There's no indication which way Schweitzer is leaning or who the MDP would go with if he says no. It's unlikely to have any electoral significance unless Schweitzer does get in.

...what , no mention that Walsh dropped out because he got nailed for plagiarism ? If he was a Republican I would expect a separate red , bold thread title from you about the incident !

It's unlikely that the Republicans will lose Kentucky or Georgia.

I'm expecting 50 to 51 seats for the Republicans as it stands right now.

Indiana also

There is not a Senate election in Indiana this year.



LOL? They're even-money in both races currently, in fact McConnell is actually narrowly losing at this point. Both races are essentially pure tossups for the time being.



As anyone who possesses the ability to read can easily see, I made mention of what reduced Walsh's chances in the post that immediately preceded the post you quoted. Many thanks for you embarrassing yourself and all, but it's a thread about the state of elections. The focus isn't on Michael Grimm's indictment or Jim Matheson's retirement or John Walsh's plagiarism, it's on how competitive each race in the country is and what that means for overall results in November.

I was wondering about that...I keep getting spam in my mail but thx for the info

probably from the house...damn Ron bacon blowing up my mail box at least once a week...Everytime i get a flyer from him i yell out okay fuck you ron ill vote for you leave me alone

This post was edited by stimpy6298 on Aug 7 2014 05:01pm