Update: Looks like we are heading to a runoff in Mississippi.

Tea Partier Chad McDaniel is leading incumbent Senator Thad Cochran 49.6%-48.8%, by a margin of about 2500 votes. 98% of the vote is in so unless the scraps of precincts outstanding come in big for McDaniel, it looks like the race will go to a June 24th runoff. Most expert analysts agreed that Cochran really needed to clear 50% tonight in order to save his seat. The race doesn't look like it will be decided for another three weeks.



Well, no, it's not. The easiest way to confirm that it's not is because that the analysis and subsequent explanation that I offered was substantiated by data, or evidence, that is contained in the post, whereas your claim cannot be substantiated by anything. No one's "lying" or "hiding behind" anything. As anyone who reads at a 3rd grade level or above can easily see, the roots of the data and methodology that differentiates the respective rankings are located squarely in the post that you quoted. And as easy as it was to make the case for the wider outcome ranges, it's even easier to dispel your moronic claim because it doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Thinking you are justified or that there is more to the story does not mean that my claims are false.
You need to get that through your head.

Some post-Super Tuesday updates to the ratings, because last night shook up the field of play a little:

House: likely range for outcome is D+1 - R+8 (from D+2 - R+8)
Senate: likely range for outcome is R+0 - R+7 (from R+1 - R+7)
Governors: likely range for outcome is D+5 - R+1 (same)

House: The changes are the result of the GOP getting its preferred candidate in the NJ-03 open race as well as two GOP State Senators (one former) advancing to November in CA-25 to prevent the Democrats from being able to compete for this GOP-held open seat. The Democrats did get some help when the contentious GOP primary in IA-03 was forced to a convention, increasing their odds of taking this GOP-held open seat.

Senate: The change is owed to the GOP needlessly putting a "Safe Republican" seat in play, driving incumbent Thad Cochran to a runoff against Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel where he is considered to be the underdog. If McDaniel does indeed win, it creates another legitimate pickup opportunity for the Democrats that wouldn't exist otherwise.



Well, no, the data illustrates that your claims are false, as per usual.

CA-52 will be an interesting race. It appears that it will be Demaio vs. Peters (incumbent Democrat). Demaio had to focus on beating Jorgenson who is your run of the mill social conservative. Demaio lost the mayoral race to Bob "Filthy" Filner in 2012 and now he's vying for Peters' seat.

CA-52 might be the only truly competitive House race in California this year. Peters reaching 42% in yesterday's primary is a sign that, come November and a more-diverse and more-Democratic electorate, he should be near 50% should he match his primary performance. DeMaio is a good fit for the district but it might be too much against an incumbent with DCCC assistance and Brown at the top of the ticket.

CA-21 and CA-25 will be competitive in 2016 but not this year and CA-31 should be an easy pickup for the Democrats provided the vote share stays the same and their candidate advances to November against Chabot. The GOP hoped that CA-07, CA-26, and CA-36 would be competitive but it doesn't really look like it will pan out that way. The incumbents are just too strong, they fundraise too well, and the challengers are too weak.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has been defeated by an underfunded, unknown professor David Brat. This could have a massive impact on the 2014 House elections. As far as Cantor goes, he can not run as an Independent and must wage a write-in candidacy in November if he wants a chance to continue in Congress.

Wow.

Some changes and new updates to report, with previous ranges from earlier this month in parenthesis:

House: D+1 - R+7 (D+1 - R+8)
Senate: R+0 - R+7 (Same)
Governors: D+5 - R+1 (Same)

IA-03: Seat is currently held by retiring GOP incumbent Tom Latham and is one of the Democrats' top pickup opportunities. The Democrats coalesced around former State Senator Staci Appel while the GOP had to pick their nominee at a convention after their primary didn't yield a winner. 5th place finisher on primary night, David Young, won the nomination in the preferred result for Democrats.

NE-02: Seat is currently held by GOP incumbent Lee Terry. Terry has been very vulnerable in the swingy seat, only winning in 2012 by 2% and only taking 59% in his party's primary in the same year. Terry only beat primary challenger Dan Frei by 6% this year and his weak performance encouraged conservative groups to run a 3rd candidate in November against him. Former State Senator Chip Maxwell announced his candidacy, making conservatives (and Democrats) very happy, putting this seat at even more risk.

There could be another big change on Tuesday when the big Senate race in Mississippi could take a turn if insurgent Tea Party candidate Chris McDaniel wins the runoff against Senator Thad Cochran as expected. Democrats are salivating at the prospect and they recruited a top-tier candidate, former Rep. Travis Childers, in the event that McDaniel becomes his party's nominee for November.

Time for some new ranges in light of last night's developments. Previous ranges:



House: D+0 - R+7. Primary voters in NY-21 picked the most-electable candidate, even though the man they did not choose has secured the Conservative voting line and could muck up the GOP's chances in November. This seat is one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities in the entire country.

Senate: R+1 - R+7. Last night's results in Mississippi means that the Democrats' will now focus solely on two pickup opportunities in Kentucky and Georgia, where they are currently ahead in both races. The Democrats lost a theoretical pickup opportunity in Mississippi last night, but the develop does bring the added benefit that their money will now be spread among fewer races and thus will have a greater positive impact. Former Rep. Travis Childers would have been competitive against Tea partier Chris McDaniel, but he would have soaked up millions of the DSCC's funding and in outside group assists for what would have been at-best a steep, steep uphill climb in the midterm year.

Governors: No change. The GOP avoided nominating Tom Tancredo in Colorado which will surely help them downballot, but their nominee is almost as flawed and weak and his odds in November are only marginally better than Tancredo's would have been.

All in all last night was a great night for the GOP establishment, a terrible night for the Tea Party, and a pretty uneventful night for Democrats.

Update: The craziness in Mississippi is cause to revert to an earlier Senate range. Even though this seat should not be competitive, the fallout after incumbent Senator Thad Cochran's win last week is making it so.

House: Same (D+0 - R+7)
Senate: R+0 - R+7 (previously R+1 - R+7)
Governors: Same (D+5 - R+1)

Chris McDaniel's refusal to concede the election, the incendiary charges coming from his campaign and supporters, and an endless stream of bad headlines are all combining to make the outlook for November's race between Cochran and Democratic nominee Travis Childers more uncertain than previously imagined. Most forecasters predicted that Childers would have no plausible path to victory and might even not seriously campaign, but the people who supported McDaniel in the primary are not beginning to coalesce around Cochran and there's been both local and national talk about either sitting out the election or backing Childers to spite Cochran. The last option is hard to seriously imagine though with the GOP having good odds to gain a majority this year.

Some people are suggesting that McDaniel wage a write-in campaign or legally contest the runoff result. Yesterday he made a fundraising pitch to supporters to help him pay for a legal challenge, and today he's offering 15 "bounties" for "evidence leading to the arrest and conviction" of anyone involved in "voter fraud." McDaniel looks to be pushing all-in and while it's not clear what he'll do, the electoral impact of his actions is that the Democrats are remaining competitive in a state that they shouldn't be.